MAX NewsWatch List

28th​​ April 2024

Market Open Times​​ (NY Time): 
Tokyo 8pm  –  Frankfurt 2am ​​ – ​​ London 3am ​​ – ​​ US 8am
Be careful when ​​ Daylight ​​ Saving Changes are in play
All Times are in New York Time

Impact

Date

Time

Cur.

News Event

Holiday

Sun Apr 28

All Day

JPY

Bank Holiday

Monitor

Mon Apr 29

All Day

EUR

German Prelim CPI m/m

Monitor

Mon Apr 29

Tentative

EUR

Italian 10-y Bond Auction

Monitor

Mon Apr 29

9:00 p.m.

NZD

ANZ Business​​ Confidence

Monitor

Mon Apr 29

9:30 p.m.

AUD

Retail Sales m/m

Monitor

Mon Apr 29

9:30 p.m.

CNY

Manufacturing PMI

Monitor

Mon Apr 29

9:30 p.m.

CNY

Non-Manufacturing PMI

Monitor

Mon Apr 29

9:45 p.m.

CNY

Caixin Manufacturing PMI

Monitor

Tue Apr 30

3:00 a.m.

CHF

KOF Economic Barometer

Monitor

Tue Apr 30

4:00 a.m.

EUR

German Prelim GDP q/q

Monitor

Tue Apr 30

5:00 a.m.

EUR

Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y

Monitor

Tue Apr 30

5:00 a.m.

EUR

CPI Flash Estimate y/y

Monitor

Tue​​ Apr 30

5:00 a.m.

EUR

Prelim Flash GDP q/q

All TFs

Tue Apr 30

8:30 a.m.

CAD

GDP m/m

Under H4

Tue Apr 30

9:45 a.m.

USD

Chicago PMI

All TFs

Tue Apr 30

10:00 a.m.

USD

CB Consumer Confidence

Monitor

Tue Apr 30

5:00 p.m.

NZD

RBNZ Financial​​ Stability Report

Monitor

Tue Apr 30

6:45 p.m.

NZD

Employment Change q/q

Monitor

Tue Apr 30

6:45 p.m.

NZD

Unemployment Rate

Holiday

Tue Apr 30

All Day

CNY

Bank Holiday

 EUR Holiday:
​​ The European Central Bank’s​​ Trans-European​​ Automated​​ Real-time​​ Gross Settlement​​ Express​​ Transfer (TARGET) system will be closed for this holiday,​​ which tends to have a substantial impact on liquidity. ​​ ​​ ​​​​ ​​ Expect more volatility.

Holiday

Wed May 1

All Day

CHF

Bank Holiday

Under H4

Wed May 1

2:00 a.m.

GBP

Nationwide HPI m/m

Holiday

Wed May 1

All Day

EUR

French Bank Holiday

Holiday

Wed May 1

All Day

EUR

German Bank Holiday

Holiday

Wed May 1

All Day

EUR

Italian Bank Holiday

Monitor

Wed May 1

2:30 a.m.

AUD

Commodity Prices y/y

Monitor

Wed May 1

Tentative

GBP

10-y Bond Auction

Under H4

Wed May 1

8:15 a.m.

USD

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

Under H4

Wed May 1

9:30 a.m.

CAD

Manufacturing PMI

Monitor

Wed May 1

10:00 a.m.

USD

ISM Manufacturing PMI

Monitor

Wed May 1

10:00 a.m.

USD

ISM Manufacturing Prices

Monitor

Wed May 1

10:30 a.m.

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

Hi Impact

Wed May 1

2:00 p.m.

USD

Federal Funds Rate

Hi Impact

Wed May 1

2:00 p.m.

USD

FOMC Statement

Hi Impact

Wed May 1

2:30 p.m.

USD

FOMC​​ Press Conference

Monitor

Wed May 1

4:15 p.m.

CAD

BOC Gov Macklem Speaks/Testify

Monitor

Wed May 1

7:50 p.m.

JPY

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Holiday

Wed May 1

All Day

CNY

Bank Holiday

Monitor

Thu May 2

1:00 a.m.

JPY

Consumer​​ Confidence

All TFs

Thu May 2

2:30 a.m.

CHF

CPI m/m

Monitor

Thu May 2

Tentative

EUR

French 10-y Bond Auction

All TFs

Thu May 2

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Trade Balance

Monitor

Thu May 2

8:30 a.m.

USD

Unemployment Claims

All TFs

Thu May 2

8:30 a.m.

USD

Trade Balance

Monitor

Thu May 2

8:45 a.m.

CAD

BOC Gov Macklem Speaks/Testify

Monitor

Thu May 2

10:30 a.m.

USD

Natural Gas Storage

Holiday

Thu May 2

All Day

JPY

Bank Holiday

Holiday

Thu May 2

All Day

CNY

Bank Holiday

.

Monitor

Fri​​ May 3

5:00 a.m.

EUR

Unemployment Rate

Hi Impact

Fri May 3

8:30 a.m.

USD

Average Hourly Earnings m/m

Hi Impact

Fri May 3

8:30 a.m.

USD

Non-Farm Employment Change

Hi Impact

Fri May 3

8:30 a.m.

USD

Unemployment Rate

Hi Impact

Fri May 3

8:32​​ a.m.

USD

NFP Revision

Monitor

Fri May 3

10:00 a.m.

USD

ISM Services PMI

NA

Sat May 4

“Top Pairs” Lists

28th​​ April 2024

The Top Pairs below are ones that have moved the most in the past 4 weeks.
They are listed in $ order: largest $ to smallest $ movers.

Pick the “low-hanging fruit” i.e. pairs that have moved the​​ most,​​ 
as they are more likely to move this week.

Order

Pair

Avg Daily​​ 
Pip Range

Avg Daily
 ​​​​ $ Range ​​ 

Comment 

1

GBPJPY

148

936

Suggested

Best Pairs

2

GBPUSD

82

821

3

GBPCHF

69

755

4

EURJPY

113

716

5

GBPAUD

105

686

6

CHFJPY

103

648

7

EURUSD

63

634

8

GBPNZD

102

607

9

USDCHF

55

606

10

GBPCAD

80

584

11

EURCHF

53

579

Less stressful?​​ 

12

EURAUD

89

579

Maybe less profitable,

13

AUDJPY

89

564

maybe easier trades?

14

AUDUSD

55

555

15

USDCAD

73

535

16

EURNZD

88

524

17

USDJPY

81

510

18

AUDCHF

45

494

19

NZDUSD

49

488

​​ 

20

CADJPY

76

483

​​ 

21

NZDJPY

76

478

​​ 

22

CADCHF

40

432

Poorer performers:

23

NZDCHF

39

431

Much less volatility &

24

EURCAD

56

410

likely less profit from

25

AUDCAD

49

358

these pairs based on

26

EURGBP

28

349

their past performance

27

NZDCAD

43

315

28

AUDNZD

37

218

Short List of Each Day’s Top Pairs

Use these suggested pairs to help limit the pairs you monitor each day.
These pairs use the News Events to help narrow the selection.
MAX Courses will teach you how to make​​ this table for yourself.

Pairs at the top have more important News Events (e.g. Hi Impact) than lower pairs.

Day

Mon 29th ​​ ​​ ​​​​ April

Tues 30

Wed 1st​​ May

Thur 2

Fri 3

1st​​ 
Choices

GBPJPY or GBPUSD

GBPUSD or EURUSD

GBPUSD or EURUSD

USDCHF or GBPUSD​​ 

GBPUSD,​​ 
EURUSD or USDCHF

GBPCHF or EURJPY

USDCHF or GBPCAD

USDCHF or GBPCAD

GBPCHF or CHFJPY​​ 

GBPJPY or GBPCHF

2nd​​ 
Choices

GBPAUD or CHFJPY

GBPJPY or GBPCHF

GBPJPY, GBPCHF or GBPAUD, GBPNZD

EURUSD​​ or GBPCAD

EURJPY or GBPAUD

Smooth Movers

These​​ pairs might be less volatile & easier to trade.

Forex Pairs

If you are uncomfortable with the faster more volatile pairs above, you could consider monitoring/trading these ones instead.

Less money, but possibly less volatility & stress.

Indices

Consider trading these indices, too.
Be careful, take your time & make certain you know how they move. They use points & fractions of points.
Some brokers allow trading the Indices by CFDs, instead of Futures.​​ 
Check with your broker for more info.

• EURCHF

• EURAUD

• AUDJPY

• AUDUSD

• USDCAD

• DAX

• DOW Jones

• NASDAQ

• S&P 500

• FTS100

• NK225

Longer Term Issues​​ 

 
28th April 2024

Last modified ​​ –​​ US-Iran –​​ Monitor – War or Retaliation – Tensions Escalate – 21st​​ April 2024  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ 

​​ 

​​ Critical Items

    – Impact: Possible Immediate Impact

   ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ 

Japan –​​ Monitor – ​​ Mon 18th​​ Mar: BOJ Policy Rate now +0.1% from -0.1%  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1274087-bank-of-japans-policy-shift-ushers-in-a?&highlight=japan
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Japan is set to end its decades-long negative interest rates policy​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1273141-japan-on-cusp-of-ending-its-negative-interest?&highlight=japan
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Added 16 March 2024)

All Countries– Inflation ​​ ​​ (Added:  30th April 2023)
–​​ Closely monitor the Central Banks (Fed & others) for​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Recession mitigation & Interest Rate Changes.

USSR/Ukraine – Monitor (Updated: 18th Sept 2022,24 Feb 2022 & 2021))

Israel & Iran & Gaza/Hamas – Monitor – Conflict Escalation & Possible Nuclear Arsenal

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​  (Update: 14 Oct 2023, ​​​​ 22 Aug 21)
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Monitor – ​​ Red Sea skirmishes ​​ ​​ (Added: ​​ 23rd​​ Dec 2023)

US-Iran – Monitor – War or Retaliation – Tensions Escalate

China –​​ Real Estate/Evergrande issue -​​ ​​ possible deflation setting up  ​​ ​​​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Updated: 30 March 2024, 3 Feb 2024, ​​ 25 Nov 2023, 19 Aug 2023 ​​ & 26 Aug 21) ​​ ​​​​ Monitor ​​ – impact on trading partners​​ – esp Aus & NZ

 ​​ ​​​​  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1235581-china-new-loans-plunge-to-2009-low-in?&highlight=china
 ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Monitor – Another bank, Zhongzhi, has collapsed. It supported construction companies & they are weak.​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://techstory.in/china-deals-with-debt-blow/
– ​​ Real Estate crisis threatens banks
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://creditnews.com/markets/chinas-property-crisis-threatens-the-countrys-largest-banks/
– Evergrande in liquidation
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/29/evergrande-shares-halted-after-hong-kong-court-orders-liquidation-.html
– Zhongzhi Enterprise Group ( China’s largest shadow bank) is declaring itself “severely insolvent.” Involved in trust, wealth funds & real estate projects & management.​​ 

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://english.elpais.com/economy-and-business/2023-11-24/zhongzhi-one-of-chinas-major-shadow-banks-declares-itself-severely-insolvent.html

– Evergrande has filed for bankruptcy in the US

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.reuters.com/legal/china-evergrande-files-chapter-15-bankruptcy-us-court-filing-2023-08-17/
– Monitor as it could impact China’s banking system
– Evergrande defaulted on an interest payment to Australia 1st Oct 2021

           ​​ 

Silicon Valley Bank collapse​​ + contagion?​​  ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Updated 18 March 2023, Added:  11 March 2023)

 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor: Still ongoing impacts in US & includes the global banking system.
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ SVB, Silvergate, Signature, Credit Suisse & now First Republic
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_banking_crisis​​ 

BRICs – 5 more countries have joined  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Added:  11 March 2023)
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.cmegroup.com/openmarkets/fx/2023/Are-Threats-to-the-USDs-Role-as-a-Reserve-Currency-Real.html

All Countries– Covid19 – Corona Virus
– Monitor for business changes.

US vs China– Monitor Trade war
Pay attention to any escalation 

Goldman Sachs Analysis – Be prudent about the analysis re US​​ economy
(22 Aug 2021)

Afghanistan – Unfolding Situation (Updated: 22 Aug 21)

​​ 

​​ Important Items

    – Impact: Medium Term Impact

US Dollar losing primacy as Reserve Currency  (Added:  23 March 2022)
   Russia demanding Roubles or Yuan​​ instead of USD for payments.
https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1146816-the-us-dollars-global-standing-as-the-top
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/putin-says-russia-will-start-selling-gas-unfriendly-countries-roubles-2022-03-23/

Russia Rouble Unsteady  ​​ ​​ ​​​​ – (Added:  15h July 2023)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor ​​ – impact from sanctions & war
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.forexfactory.com/search?searchid=44391641​​ 

USSR Leadership issues ​​ – Monitor (Added:  1st July 2023)

USSR/Balkin states​​ – Monitor (Added 1 Oct 2023)
           ​​ Conflicts are starting to be seen​​ 

Banks under Scrutiny by ECB​​  ​​ ​​​​ – (Added:  4th December 2022)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor for limited credit causing financial problems​​ 
 ​​​​ ​​ Effects Deutsche Bank & BNP Paribas

Banks warned of CRE (Commercial Real Estate) Risks  ​​​​ – (Added:  11th February 2024)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor for limited credit causing financial problems​​ 
 ​​​​ ​​ Effects Deutsche Bank & BNP Paribas
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://financialpost.com/fp-finance/banking/commercial-real-estate-contagion-spreads-to-europe
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/ecb-warns-banks-to-grasp-real-estate-risks-or-face-capital-hits-1.2033023​​ 

USA Govt Shutdown​​ in March,​​ January?​​ November?​​ – Monitor​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Updated: 19th​​ Jan 2024, 16 Dec 2023, Oct 2023, Nov 2023 )
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ ​​ https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/federal-government-shutdown-funding-11-14-23/index.html
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.raymondjames.com/commentary-and-insights/economy-policy/2023/09/29/weekly-economic-commentary​​ 

China/Taiwan – Monitor for possible aggression
as per Chinese general saying​​ military action is considered.

EU – Poland – Monitor for possible Issues (Updated: 9 Oct 2021)
   after Poland Constitutional Court decision. PolExit?

European Union Dissolving? Monitor the EU for
interstate difficulties exacerbated by the Covid19 epidemic
via EU Council meeting relationships degrading
– also monitor Germany’s Constitutional Court Ruling
for future implications – re EURO viability, EU partnerships,
& possible end of EU? More info here: www.cnbc.com/


China/Hong Kong – Monitor

EU – Germany’s political situation is not settled
Additional EU Entrants possible?

Syria – Could disrupt in the markets

Libya – Geopolitical/Military escalation could affect Oil Prices

ECB – Monitor statements for weakening impacts
ECB outlook is becoming more pessimistic re EU Economy
Monitor any action taken if/when QE ceases at Year End.

​​ Ongoing Items

    – Impact: Very Long Term Repercussions

Italy – Monitor (Updated: 17 July 2022, -​​ 14 Feb 2021)
Draghi quits as PM, could still impact EU
–​​ Monitor – Budget & Banking System
– Monitor – Possible EU Penalty & alternate currency

OPEC – Monitor (Updated: 07 July 2023) 
 – Unexpectedly dropped the price​​ 
 – considering dropping USD as denomination currency
 – Influence of terrorism on production​​ has risen.

German Bank (WireCard) Bankrupted – Monitor for
possible future ramifications for stability
– eg domino effect a la Lehman Brothers.

Karlsruhe German Constitutional Court (Updated: 9 May 21)
Monitor: Decision re ECB PEPP (QE)
Could be revoked​​ causing major impact on the German economy

China vs India vs Pakistan– Monitor conflicts along border.