Longer Term Issues​​ 

 
24th​​ December 2023

Last modified:  ​​​​ ​​ Israel/Iran/etc -​​ Red Sea skirmishes (23rd​​ Dec 2023)
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ ​​ USA Govt Shutdown? 16 Dec​​ 2023

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​​ Critical Items

    – Impact: Possible Immediate Impact

  ​​ 

All Countries– Inflation ​​ ​​ (Added:  30th April 2023)
–​​ Closely monitor the​​ Central Banks (Fed & others) for​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Recession mitigation & Interest Rate Changes.

USSR/Ukraine – Monitor (Updated: 18th Sept 2022,24 Feb 2022 & 2021))
           ​​ Beware – this conflict has escalated

Israel & Iran & Gaza/Hamas – Monitor – Conflict​​ Escalation & Possible Nuclear Arsenal (Update: 14 Oct 2023, ​​ 22 Aug 21)
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Monitor​​ -​​ ​​ Red Sea skirmishes ​​​​ ​​ (Added: ​​ 23rd​​ Dec 2023)

USA Govt Shutdown​​ in January,​​ November?​​ – Monitor November 2023 (Updated: 16 Dec 2023,
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Oct 2023)
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/federal-government-shutdown-funding-11-14-23/index.html
 ​​ ​​​​  ​​ ​​ ​​​​ ​​ https://www.raymondjames.com/commentary-and-insights/economy-policy/2023/09/29/weekly-economic-commentary​​ 

China – possible deflation setting up  ​​ ​​ ​​​​ –​​ (Added:  13th Aug 2023)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor ​​ - impact on trading partners​​ - esp Aus & NZ

 ​​ ​​​​  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1235581-china-new-loans-plunge-to-2009-low-in?&highlight=china

           ​​ 

Silicon Valley Bank collapse​​ + contagion?​​  ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Updated 18 March 2023, Added:  11 March 2023)

 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor: Still ongoing impacts in US & includes the global banking system.
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ SVB, Silvergate, Signature, Credit Suisse & now First Republic
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_banking_crisis​​ 

All Countries– Covid19 – Corona Virus
– Monitor for business changes.

US vs​​ China– Monitor Trade war
Pay attention to any escalation 

China- Evergrande issue  (Updated: 25 Nov 2023, 19 Aug 2023 ​​ & 26 Aug 21)
– Zhongzhi Enterprise Group ( China’s largest shadow bank) is declaring itself “severely insolvent.” Involved in trust, wealth funds & real estate projects & management.​​ 

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://english.elpais.com/economy-and-business/2023-11-24/zhongzhi-one-of-chinas-major-shadow-banks-declares-itself-severely-insolvent.html

– Evergrande has filed for bankruptcy in the US

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.reuters.com/legal/china-evergrande-files-chapter-15-bankruptcy-us-court-filing-2023-08-17/
– Monitor as it could impact China’s banking system
– Evergrande defaulted on an interest payment to Australia 1st Oct 2021

Goldman Sachs Analysis – Be prudent about the analysis re US economy
(22 Aug 2021)

Afghanistan –​​ Unfolding Situation (Updated: 22 Aug 21)

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​​ Important Items

    – Impact: Medium Term Impact

US Dollar losing primacy as Reserve Currency  (Added:  23 March 2022)
   Russia demanding Roubles or Yuan instead of USD for payments.
https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1146816-the-us-dollars-global-standing-as-the-top
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/putin-says-russia-will-start-selling-gas-unfriendly-countries-roubles-2022-03-23/

Russia Rouble Unsteady  ​​ ​​ ​​​​ – (Added:  15h July 2023)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor ​​ -​​ impact from sanctions & war
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.forexfactory.com/search?searchid=44391641

USSR Leadership issues ​​ – Monitor (Added:  1st July 2023)

USSR/Balkin states​​ –​​ Monitor (Added 1 Oct 2023)
           ​​ Conflicts are starting to be seen​​ 

Banks under Scrutiny by ECB  ​​ ​​​​ – (Added:  4th December 2022)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor for limited credit causing financial problems​​ 
 ​​​​ ​​ Effects Deutsche Bank & BNP Paribas

US-Iran Tension Escalation

China/Taiwan – Monitor for possible aggression
as per Chinese general saying military action is considered.

EU – Poland – Monitor for possible Issues (Updated: 9 Oct 2021)
   after Poland Constitutional Court decision. PolExit?

European Union​​ Dissolving? Monitor the EU for
interstate difficulties exacerbated by the Covid19 epidemic
via EU Council meeting relationships degrading
– also monitor Germany’s Constitutional Court Ruling
for future implications – re EURO viability, EU partnerships,
& possible end of EU? More info here: www.cnbc.com/


China/Hong Kong – Monitor

EU – Germany’s political situation is not settled
Additional EU Entrants possible?

Syria – Could disrupt in the markets

Libya – Geopolitical/Military escalation could affect Oil Prices

ECB – Monitor statements for weakening impacts
ECB outlook is becoming more pessimistic re EU Economy
Monitor any action taken if/when QE ceases at Year End.

​​ Ongoing Items

    – Impact: Very Long Term Repercussions

Italy –​​ Monitor (Updated: 17 July 2022, -​​ 14 Feb 2021)
Draghi quits as PM, could still impact EU
– Monitor – Budget & Banking System
– Monitor – Possible EU Penalty & alternate currency

OPEC – Monitor (Updated: 07 July 2023) 
 – Unexpectedly dropped the​​ price​​ 
 – considering dropping USD as denomination currency
 – Influence of terrorism on production has risen.

German Bank (WireCard) Bankrupted – Monitor for
possible future ramifications for stability
– eg domino effect a la Lehman Brothers.

Karlsruhe​​ German Constitutional Court (Updated: 9 May 21)
Monitor: Decision re ECB PEPP (QE)
Could be revoked causing major impact on the German economy

China vs India vs Pakistan– Monitor conflicts along border.