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Archive: April to June 2024
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Archive - RED 71th XX 2024

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Archive - BLUE71th XX 2024

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Archive - 28th April 2024

 


MAX NewsWatch List


28th​​ April 2024

Market Open Times​​ (NY Time): 
Tokyo 8pm  –  Frankfurt 2am ​​ – ​​ London 3am ​​ – ​​ US 8am
Be careful when ​​ Daylight ​​ Saving Changes are in play
All Times are in New York Time

 

 

Impact

Date

Time

Cur.

News Event

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Holiday

Sun Apr 28

All Day

JPY

Bank Holiday

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Mon Apr 29

All Day

EUR

German Prelim CPI m/m

 

 

Monitor

Mon Apr 29

Tentative

EUR

Italian 10-y Bond Auction

 

 

Monitor

Mon Apr 29

9:00 p.m.

NZD

ANZ Business​​ Confidence

 

 

Monitor

Mon Apr 29

9:30 p.m.

AUD

Retail Sales m/m

 

 

Monitor

Mon Apr 29

9:30 p.m.

CNY

Manufacturing PMI

 

 

Monitor

Mon Apr 29

9:30 p.m.

CNY

Non-Manufacturing PMI

 

 

Monitor

Mon Apr 29

9:45 p.m.

CNY

Caixin Manufacturing PMI

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Tue Apr 30

3:00 a.m.

CHF

KOF Economic Barometer

 

 

Monitor

Tue Apr 30

4:00 a.m.

EUR

German Prelim GDP q/q

 

 

Monitor

Tue Apr 30

5:00 a.m.

EUR

Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y

 

 

Monitor

Tue Apr 30

5:00 a.m.

EUR

CPI Flash Estimate y/y

 

 

Monitor

Tue​​ Apr 30

5:00 a.m.

EUR

Prelim Flash GDP q/q

 

 

All TFs

Tue Apr 30

8:30 a.m.

CAD

GDP m/m

 

 

Under H4

Tue Apr 30

9:45 a.m.

USD

Chicago PMI

 

 

All TFs

Tue Apr 30

10:00 a.m.

USD

CB Consumer Confidence

 

 

Monitor

Tue Apr 30

5:00 p.m.

NZD

RBNZ Financial​​ Stability Report

 

 

Monitor

Tue Apr 30

6:45 p.m.

NZD

Employment Change q/q

 

 

Monitor

Tue Apr 30

6:45 p.m.

NZD

Unemployment Rate

 

 

Holiday

Tue Apr 30

All Day

CNY

Bank Holiday

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 EUR Holiday:
​​ The European Central Bank's​​ Trans-European​​ Automated​​ Real-time​​ Gross Settlement​​ Express​​ Transfer (TARGET) system will be closed for this holiday,​​ which tends to have a substantial impact on liquidity. ​​ ​​ ​​​​ ​​ Expect more volatility.

 

Holiday

Wed May 1

All Day

CHF

Bank Holiday

 

 

Under H4

Wed May 1

2:00 a.m.

GBP

Nationwide HPI m/m

 

 

Holiday

Wed May 1

All Day

EUR

French Bank Holiday

 

 

Holiday

Wed May 1

All Day

EUR

German Bank Holiday

 

 

Holiday

Wed May 1

All Day

EUR

Italian Bank Holiday

 

 

Monitor

Wed May 1

2:30 a.m.

AUD

Commodity Prices y/y

 

 

Monitor

Wed May 1

Tentative

GBP

10-y Bond Auction

 

 

Under H4

Wed May 1

8:15 a.m.

USD

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

 

 

Under H4

Wed May 1

9:30 a.m.

CAD

Manufacturing PMI

 

 

Monitor

Wed May 1

10:00 a.m.

USD

ISM Manufacturing PMI

 

 

Monitor

Wed May 1

10:00 a.m.

USD

ISM Manufacturing Prices

 

 

Monitor

Wed May 1

10:30 a.m.

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

 

 

Hi Impact

Wed May 1

2:00 p.m.

USD

Federal Funds Rate

 

 

Hi Impact

Wed May 1

2:00 p.m.

USD

FOMC Statement

 

 

Hi Impact

Wed May 1

2:30 p.m.

USD

FOMC​​ Press Conference

 

 

Monitor

Wed May 1

4:15 p.m.

CAD

BOC Gov Macklem Speaks/Testify

 

 

Monitor

Wed May 1

7:50 p.m.

JPY

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

 

 

Holiday

Wed May 1

All Day

CNY

Bank Holiday

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Thu May 2

1:00 a.m.

JPY

Consumer​​ Confidence

 

 

All TFs

Thu May 2

2:30 a.m.

CHF

CPI m/m

 

 

Monitor

Thu May 2

Tentative

EUR

French 10-y Bond Auction

 

 

All TFs

Thu May 2

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Trade Balance

 

 

Monitor

Thu May 2

8:30 a.m.

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

 

All TFs

Thu May 2

8:30 a.m.

USD

Trade Balance

 

 

Monitor

Thu May 2

8:45 a.m.

CAD

BOC Gov Macklem Speaks/Testify

 

 

Monitor

Thu May 2

10:30 a.m.

USD

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

Holiday

Thu May 2

All Day

JPY

Bank Holiday

 

 

Holiday

Thu May 2

All Day

CNY

Bank Holiday

 

 

.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Fri​​ May 3

5:00 a.m.

EUR

Unemployment Rate

 

 

Hi Impact

Fri May 3

8:30 a.m.

USD

Average Hourly Earnings m/m

 

 

Hi Impact

Fri May 3

8:30 a.m.

USD

Non-Farm Employment Change

 

 

Hi Impact

Fri May 3

8:30 a.m.

USD

Unemployment Rate

 

 

Hi Impact

Fri May 3

8:32​​ a.m.

USD

NFP Revision

 

 

Monitor

Fri May 3

10:00 a.m.

USD

ISM Services PMI

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NA

Sat May 4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


“Top Pairs” Lists


28th​​ April 2024

 

The Top Pairs below are ones that have moved the most in the past 4 weeks.
They are listed in $ order: largest $ to smallest $ movers.

Pick the “low-hanging fruit” i.e. pairs that have moved the​​ most,​​ 
as they are more likely to move this week.

 

Order

Pair

Avg Daily​​ 
Pip Range

Avg Daily
 ​​​​ $ Range ​​ 

Comment 

1

GBPJPY

148

936

Suggested

Best Pairs

2

GBPUSD

82

821

3

GBPCHF

69

755

4

EURJPY

113

716

5

GBPAUD

105

686

6

CHFJPY

103

648

7

EURUSD

63

634

8

GBPNZD

102

607

9

USDCHF

55

606

10

GBPCAD

80

584

11

EURCHF

53

579

Less stressful?​​ 

12

EURAUD

89

579

Maybe less profitable,

13

AUDJPY

89

564

maybe easier trades?

14

AUDUSD

55

555

 

15

USDCAD

73

535

 

 

16

EURNZD

88

524

 

17

USDJPY

81

510

 

 

18

AUDCHF

45

494

 

19

NZDUSD

49

488

​​ 

20

CADJPY

76

483

​​ 

21

NZDJPY

76

478

​​ 

22

CADCHF

40

432

Poorer performers:

23

NZDCHF

39

431

Much less volatility &

24

EURCAD

56

410

likely less profit from

25

AUDCAD

49

358

these pairs based on

26

EURGBP

28

349

their past performance

27

NZDCAD

43

315

 

28

AUDNZD

37

218

 

#E5F8FF

 

 

Short List of Each Day’s Top Pairs

Use these suggested pairs to help limit the pairs you monitor each day.
These pairs use the News Events to help narrow the selection.
MAX Courses will teach you how to make​​ this table for yourself.

Pairs at the top have more important News Events (e.g. Hi Impact) than lower pairs.

 

 

Day

Mon 29th ​​ ​​ ​​​​ April

Tues 30

Wed 1st​​ May

Thur 2

Fri 3

 

 

1st​​ 
Choices

GBPJPY or GBPUSD

GBPUSD or EURUSD

GBPUSD or EURUSD

USDCHF or GBPUSD​​ 

GBPUSD,​​ 
EURUSD or USDCHF

GBPCHF or EURJPY

USDCHF or GBPCAD

USDCHF or GBPCAD

GBPCHF or CHFJPY​​ 

GBPJPY or GBPCHF

 

2nd​​ 
Choices

GBPAUD or CHFJPY

GBPJPY or GBPCHF

GBPJPY, GBPCHF or GBPAUD, GBPNZD

EURUSD​​ or GBPCAD

EURJPY or GBPAUD

 

 

 

 

Smooth Movers


These​​ pairs might be less volatile & easier to trade.

 

 

 

Forex Pairs


If you are uncomfortable with the faster more volatile pairs above, you could consider monitoring/trading these ones instead.


Less money, but possibly less volatility & stress.

 

 

Indices


Consider trading these indices, too.
Be careful, take your time & make certain you know how they move. They use points & fractions of points.
Some brokers allow trading the Indices by CFDs, instead of Futures.​​ 
Check with your broker for more info.

 

  • EURCHF

  • EURAUD

  • AUDJPY

  • AUDUSD

  • USDCAD

  • DAX

  • DOW Jones

  • NASDAQ

  • S&P 500

  • FTS100

  • NK225

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Longer Term Issues​​ 

 
28th April 2024


Last modified ​​ –​​ US-Iran –​​ Monitor – War or Retaliation - Tensions Escalate – 21st​​ April 2024  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ 

​​ 

​​ Critical Items

    – Impact: Possible Immediate Impact

 

   ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ 

 

Japan –​​ Monitor – ​​ Mon 18th​​ Mar: BOJ Policy Rate now +0.1% from -0.1%  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1274087-bank-of-japans-policy-shift-ushers-in-a?&highlight=japan
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Japan is set to end its decades-long negative interest rates policy​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1273141-japan-on-cusp-of-ending-its-negative-interest?&highlight=japan
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Added 16 March 2024)

 


All Countries– Inflation ​​ ​​ (Added:  30th April 2023)
–​​ Closely monitor the Central Banks (Fed & others) for​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Recession mitigation & Interest Rate Changes.

 

USSR/Ukraine – Monitor (Updated: 18th Sept 2022,24 Feb 2022 & 2021))

 


Israel & Iran & Gaza/Hamas – Monitor – Conflict Escalation & Possible Nuclear Arsenal

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​  (Update: 14 Oct 2023, ​​​​ 22 Aug 21)
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Monitor - ​​ Red Sea skirmishes ​​ ​​ (Added: ​​ 23rd​​ Dec 2023)

US-Iran – Monitor – War or Retaliation - Tensions Escalate

China –​​ Real Estate/Evergrande issue -​​ ​​ possible deflation setting up  ​​ ​​​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Updated: 30 March 2024, 3 Feb 2024, ​​ 25 Nov 2023, 19 Aug 2023 ​​ & 26 Aug 21) ​​ ​​​​ Monitor ​​ - impact on trading partners​​ - esp Aus & NZ

 ​​ ​​​​  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1235581-china-new-loans-plunge-to-2009-low-in?&highlight=china
 ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Monitor – Another bank, Zhongzhi, has collapsed. It supported construction companies & they are weak.​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://techstory.in/china-deals-with-debt-blow/
- ​​ Real Estate crisis threatens banks
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://creditnews.com/markets/chinas-property-crisis-threatens-the-countrys-largest-banks/
– Evergrande in liquidation
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/29/evergrande-shares-halted-after-hong-kong-court-orders-liquidation-.html
– Zhongzhi Enterprise Group ( China’s largest shadow bank) is declaring itself “severely insolvent.” Involved in trust, wealth funds & real estate projects & management.​​ 

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://english.elpais.com/economy-and-business/2023-11-24/zhongzhi-one-of-chinas-major-shadow-banks-declares-itself-severely-insolvent.html

– Evergrande has filed for bankruptcy in the US

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.reuters.com/legal/china-evergrande-files-chapter-15-bankruptcy-us-court-filing-2023-08-17/
– Monitor as it could impact China’s banking system
– Evergrande defaulted on an interest payment to Australia 1st Oct 2021

 

           ​​ 

Silicon Valley Bank collapse​​ + contagion?​​  ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Updated 18 March 2023, Added:  11 March 2023)

 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor: Still ongoing impacts in US & includes the global banking system.
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ SVB, Silvergate, Signature, Credit Suisse & now First Republic
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_banking_crisis​​ 

BRICs – 5 more countries have joined  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Added:  11 March 2023)
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.cmegroup.com/openmarkets/fx/2023/Are-Threats-to-the-USDs-Role-as-a-Reserve-Currency-Real.html

 

 

All Countries– Covid19 – Corona Virus
– Monitor for business changes.

 

US vs China– Monitor Trade war
Pay attention to any escalation 



Goldman Sachs Analysis – Be prudent about the analysis re US​​ economy
(22 Aug 2021)


Afghanistan – Unfolding Situation (Updated: 22 Aug 21)

 

 

 

​​ 

​​ Important Items

    – Impact: Medium Term Impact

 

 

 

US Dollar losing primacy as Reserve Currency  (Added:  23 March 2022)
   Russia demanding Roubles or Yuan​​ instead of USD for payments.
https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1146816-the-us-dollars-global-standing-as-the-top
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/putin-says-russia-will-start-selling-gas-unfriendly-countries-roubles-2022-03-23/

 


Russia Rouble Unsteady  ​​ ​​ ​​​​ – (Added:  15h July 2023)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor ​​ - impact from sanctions & war
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.forexfactory.com/search?searchid=44391641​​ 

 

 

USSR Leadership issues ​​ – Monitor (Added:  1st July 2023)

 

 

USSR/Balkin states​​ – Monitor (Added 1 Oct 2023)
           ​​ Conflicts are starting to be seen​​ 

 

Banks under Scrutiny by ECB​​  ​​ ​​​​ – (Added:  4th December 2022)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor for limited credit causing financial problems​​ 
 ​​​​ ​​ Effects Deutsche Bank & BNP Paribas

Banks warned of CRE (Commercial Real Estate) Risks  ​​​​ – (Added:  11th February 2024)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor for limited credit causing financial problems​​ 
 ​​​​ ​​ Effects Deutsche Bank & BNP Paribas
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://financialpost.com/fp-finance/banking/commercial-real-estate-contagion-spreads-to-europe
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/ecb-warns-banks-to-grasp-real-estate-risks-or-face-capital-hits-1.2033023​​ 

 

 

USA Govt Shutdown​​ in March,​​ January?​​ November?​​ – Monitor​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Updated: 19th​​ Jan 2024, 16 Dec 2023, Oct 2023, Nov 2023 )
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ ​​ https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/federal-government-shutdown-funding-11-14-23/index.html
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.raymondjames.com/commentary-and-insights/economy-policy/2023/09/29/weekly-economic-commentary​​ 

 


China/Taiwan – Monitor for possible aggression
as per Chinese general saying​​ military action is considered.

 

EU – Poland – Monitor for possible Issues (Updated: 9 Oct 2021)
   after Poland Constitutional Court decision. PolExit?

European Union Dissolving? Monitor the EU for
interstate difficulties exacerbated by the Covid19 epidemic
via EU Council meeting relationships degrading
– also monitor Germany’s Constitutional Court Ruling
for future implications – re EURO viability, EU partnerships,
& possible end of EU? More info here: www.cnbc.com/


China/Hong Kong – Monitor

EU – Germany’s political situation is not settled
Additional EU Entrants possible?

Syria – Could disrupt in the markets

Libya – Geopolitical/Military escalation could affect Oil Prices

ECB – Monitor statements for weakening impacts
ECB outlook is becoming more pessimistic re EU Economy
Monitor any action taken if/when QE ceases at Year End.

 

 

 

 

​​ Ongoing Items

    – Impact: Very Long Term Repercussions

 

 

 

Italy – Monitor (Updated: 17 July 2022, -​​ 14 Feb 2021)
Draghi quits as PM, could still impact EU
–​​ Monitor – Budget & Banking System
– Monitor – Possible EU Penalty & alternate currency

OPEC – Monitor (Updated: 07 July 2023) 
 – Unexpectedly dropped the price​​ 
 – considering dropping USD as denomination currency
 – Influence of terrorism on production​​ has risen.

 

German Bank (WireCard) Bankrupted – Monitor for
possible future ramifications for stability
– eg domino effect a la Lehman Brothers.

 

Karlsruhe German Constitutional Court (Updated: 9 May 21)
Monitor: Decision re ECB PEPP (QE)
Could be revoked​​ causing major impact on the German economy

 

China vs India vs Pakistan– Monitor conflicts along border.

 

 

 

 

Archive - 21st April 2024

 


MAX NewsWatch List


21st​​ April 2024

Market Open Times​​ (NY Time): 
Tokyo 8pm  –  Frankfurt 2am ​​ – ​​ London 3am ​​ – ​​ US 8am
Be careful when ​​ Daylight ​​ Saving Changes are in play
All Times are in New York Time

 

Impact

Date

Time

Cur.

News Event

 

 

 

 

 

 

N.A.

Sun Apr 21

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

N.A.

Mon Apr 22

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Tue Apr 23

4:00 a.m.

EUR

Flash Manufacturing PMI

 

Monitor

Tue Apr 23

4:00 a.m.

EUR

Flash Services PMI

 

Monitor

Tue Apr 23

9:45 a.m.

USD

Flash Manufacturing PMI

 

Monitor

Tue Apr 23

9:45 a.m.

USD

Flash Services PMI

 

Monitor

Tue Apr 23

10:00 a.m.

USD

New Home Sales

 

All TFs

Tue Apr 23

6:45 p.m.

NZD

Trade Balance

 

All TFs

Tue Apr 23

9:30 p.m.

AUD

CPI q/q

 

All TFs

Tue Apr 23

9:30 p.m.

AUD

Trimmed Mean CPI q/q

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Wed Apr 24

4:00 a.m.

CHF

Credit Suisse Economic Expectations

 

Monitor

Wed Apr 24

4:00 a.m.

EUR

German ifo Business Climate

 

Monitor

Wed Apr 24

Tentative

EUR

German 10-y Bond Auction

 

Under H4

Wed Apr 24

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Core Retail Sales m/m

 

Under H4

Wed Apr 24

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Retail Sales m/m

 

Under H4

Wed Apr 24

8:30 a.m.

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders m/m

 

Under H4

Wed Apr 24

8:30 a.m.

USD

Durable Goods Orders m/m

 

Monitor

Wed Apr 24

10:30 a.m.

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

 

Monitor

Wed Apr 24

1:30 p.m.

CAD

BOC Summary of Deliberations

 

Holiday

Wed Apr 24

All Day

NZD

Bank Holiday

 

Holiday

Wed Apr 24

All Day

AUD

Bank Holiday

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Thu Apr 25

2:00 a.m.

EUR

German GfK Consumer Climate

 

Holiday

Thu Apr 25

All Day

EUR

Italian Bank Holiday

 

Monitor

Thu Apr 25

4:00 a.m.

EUR

ECB Economic Bulletin

 

All TFs

Thu Apr 25

8:30 a.m.

USD

Advance GDP q/q

 

Monitor

Thu Apr 25

8:30 a.m.

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

All TFs

Thu Apr 25

8:30 a.m.

USD

Advance GDP Price Index q/q

 

Monitor

Thu Apr 25

10:30 a.m.

USD

Natural Gas Storage

 

Monitor

Thu Apr 25

7:01 p.m.

GBP

GfK Consumer Confidence

 

Monitor

Thu Apr 25

7:30 p.m.

JPY

Tokyo Core CPI y/y

 

Hi Impact

Thu Apr 25

Tentative

JPY

BOJ Policy Rate

 

Hi Impact

Thu Apr 25

Tentative

JPY

Monetary Policy Statement

 

Hi Impact

Thu Apr 25

Tentative

JPY

BOJ Outlook Report

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hi Impact

Fri Apr 26

Tentative

JPY

BOJ Press Conference

 

All TFs

Fri Apr 26

4:00 a.m.

EUR

M3 Money Supply y/y

 

All TFs

Fri Apr 26

8:30 a.m.

USD

Core PCE Price Index m/m

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

N.A.

Sat Apr 27

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


“Top Pairs” Lists


21st​​ April 2024

 

The Top Pairs below are ones that have moved the most in the past 4 weeks.
They are listed in $ order: largest $ to smallest $ movers.

Pick the “low-hanging fruit” i.e. pairs that have moved the​​ most,​​ 
as they are more likely to move this week.

 

Order

Pair

Avg Daily​​ 
Pip Range

Avg Daily
 ​​​​ $ Range ​​ 

Comment 

1

GBPJPY

117

759

Suggested

Best Pairs

2

GBPCHF

66

730

3

GBPUSD

73

728

4

EURJPY

97

629

5

GBPAUD

98

628

6

CHFJPY

96

623

7

EURCHF

56

620

8

USDCHF

56

612

9

EURUSD

58

585

10

GBPNZD

96

566

11

AUDUSD

53

534

Less stressful?​​ 

12

EURAUD

82

528

Maybe less profitable,

13

GBPCAD

71

519

maybe easier trades?

14

AUDJPY

77

501

 

15

EURNZD

85

499

 

 

16

AUDCHF

45

499

 

17

USDCAD

68

496

 

 

18

NZDUSD

46

464

 

19

NZDCHF

41

448

​​ 

20

USDJPY

68

437

​​ 

21

CADCHF

40

436

​​ 

22

NZDJPY

67

432

Poorer performers:

23

CADJPY

66

426

Much less volatility &

24

EURCAD

56

408

likely less profit from

25

AUDCAD

48

346

these pairs based on

26

NZDCAD

44

320

their past performance

27

EURGBP

26

317

 

28

AUDNZD

33

196

 

#E5F8FF

 

 

Short List of Each Day’s Top Pairs

Use these suggested pairs to help limit the pairs you monitor each day.
These pairs use the News Events to help narrow the selection.
MAX Courses will teach you how to make​​ this table for yourself.

Pairs at the top have more important News Events (e.g. Hi Impact) than lower pairs.

 

 

Day

Mon 22nd ​​ ​​​​ April

Tues 23

Wed 24

Thur 25

Fri 26

 

 

1st​​ 
Choices

GBPJPY or GBPCHF

GBPJPY or GBPCHF

GBPUSD or GBPAUD

GBPUSD or USDCHF

EURJPY or GBPJPY

GBPUSD or EURJPY

GBPUSD or EURJPY

GBPCAD,​​ USDCHF or EURUSD

EURUSD or GBPJPY

CHFJPY or EURUSD​​ 

 

2nd​​ 
Choices

GBPAUD or CHFJPY

GBPAUD or CHFJPY

GBPNZD or GBPJPY

GBPCHF or GBPUSD

GBPUSD, EURCHF or USDCHF

 

 

 

 

Smooth Movers


These pairs might be less volatile & easier to trade.

 

 

 

Forex Pairs


If you are uncomfortable with the faster more volatile pairs above, you could consider monitoring/trading these ones instead.


Less money, but possibly less volatility & stress.

 

 

Indices


Consider trading these indices, too.
Be careful, take your time & make certain you know how they move. They use points & fractions of points.
Some brokers allow trading the Indices by CFDs, instead of Futures.​​ 
Check with your broker for more info.

 

  • EAUDUSD

  • EURAUD

  • GBPCAD

  • DAX

  • DOW Jones

  • NASDAQ

  • S&P 500

  • FTS100

  • NK225

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Longer Term Issues​​ 

 
21st​​ April 2024


Last modified ​​ –​​ US-Iran –​​ Monitor – War or Retaliation - Tensions Escalate​​ –​​ 21st​​ April​​ 2024  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ 

​​ 

​​ Critical Items

    – Impact: Possible Immediate Impact

 

   ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ 

 

Japan – Monitor – ​​​​ Mon 18th​​ Mar: BOJ Policy Rate now +0.1% from -0.1%  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1274087-bank-of-japans-policy-shift-ushers-in-a?&highlight=japan
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Japan is set to end its decades-long negative interest rates policy​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1273141-japan-on-cusp-of-ending-its-negative-interest?&highlight=japan
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Added 16 March 2024)

 


All Countries– Inflation ​​ ​​ (Added:  30th April 2023)
–​​ Closely monitor the Central Banks (Fed & others) for​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Recession mitigation & Interest Rate Changes.

 

USSR/Ukraine – Monitor (Updated: 18th Sept 2022,24 Feb 2022 & 2021))

 


Israel & Iran & Gaza/Hamas – Monitor – Conflict Escalation & Possible Nuclear Arsenal

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​  (Update: 14 Oct 2023, ​​​​ 22 Aug 21)
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Monitor - ​​ Red Sea skirmishes ​​ ​​ (Added: ​​ 23rd​​ Dec 2023)

US-Iran – Monitor – War or Retaliation - Tensions​​ Escalate

China –​​ Real Estate/Evergrande issue -​​ ​​ possible deflation setting up  ​​ ​​​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Updated: 30 March 2024, 3​​ Feb 2024, ​​ 25 Nov 2023, 19 Aug 2023 ​​ & 26 Aug 21) ​​ ​​​​ Monitor ​​ - impact on trading partners​​ - esp Aus & NZ

 ​​ ​​​​  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1235581-china-new-loans-plunge-to-2009-low-in?&highlight=china
 ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Monitor – Another bank, Zhongzhi, has collapsed. It supported construction companies & they are weak.​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://techstory.in/china-deals-with-debt-blow/
- ​​ Real Estate crisis​​ threatens banks
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://creditnews.com/markets/chinas-property-crisis-threatens-the-countrys-largest-banks/
– Evergrande in liquidation
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/29/evergrande-shares-halted-after-hong-kong-court-orders-liquidation-.html
– Zhongzhi Enterprise​​ Group ( China’s largest shadow bank) is declaring itself “severely insolvent.” Involved in trust, wealth funds & real estate projects & management.​​ 

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://english.elpais.com/economy-and-business/2023-11-24/zhongzhi-one-of-chinas-major-shadow-banks-declares-itself-severely-insolvent.html

– Evergrande has filed for bankruptcy in the US

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.reuters.com/legal/china-evergrande-files-chapter-15-bankruptcy-us-court-filing-2023-08-17/
– Monitor as it could impact China’s banking system
– Evergrande defaulted on an interest payment to Australia 1st Oct 2021

 

           ​​ 

Silicon Valley Bank collapse​​ + contagion?​​  ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Updated 18 March 2023, Added:  11 March 2023)

 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor: Still ongoing impacts in US & includes the global banking system.
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ SVB, Silvergate, Signature, Credit Suisse & now First Republic
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_banking_crisis​​ 

BRICs – 5 more countries have joined  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Added:  11 March 2023)
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.cmegroup.com/openmarkets/fx/2023/Are-Threats-to-the-USDs-Role-as-a-Reserve-Currency-Real.html

 

 

All Countries– Covid19 – Corona Virus
– Monitor for business changes.

 

US vs China– Monitor Trade war
Pay attention to any escalation 



Goldman Sachs Analysis – Be prudent about the​​ analysis re US economy
(22 Aug 2021)


Afghanistan – Unfolding Situation (Updated: 22 Aug 21)

 

 

 

​​ 

​​ Important Items

    – Impact: Medium Term Impact

 

 

 

US Dollar losing primacy as Reserve Currency  (Added:  23 March 2022)
   Russia demanding​​ Roubles or Yuan instead of USD for payments.
https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1146816-the-us-dollars-global-standing-as-the-top
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/putin-says-russia-will-start-selling-gas-unfriendly-countries-roubles-2022-03-23/

 


Russia Rouble Unsteady  ​​ ​​ ​​​​ – (Added:  15h July 2023)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor ​​ - impact from sanctions & war
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.forexfactory.com/search?searchid=44391641​​ 

 

 

USSR Leadership issues ​​ – Monitor (Added:  1st July 2023)

 

 

USSR/Balkin states​​ – Monitor (Added 1 Oct 2023)
           ​​ Conflicts are starting to be seen​​ 

 

Banks under Scrutiny by ECB​​  ​​ ​​​​ – (Added:  4th December 2022)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor for limited credit causing financial problems​​ 
 ​​​​ ​​ Effects Deutsche Bank & BNP Paribas

Banks warned of CRE (Commercial Real Estate) Risks  ​​​​ – (Added:  11th February 2024)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor for limited credit causing financial problems​​ 
 ​​​​ ​​ Effects Deutsche Bank & BNP Paribas
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://financialpost.com/fp-finance/banking/commercial-real-estate-contagion-spreads-to-europe
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/ecb-warns-banks-to-grasp-real-estate-risks-or-face-capital-hits-1.2033023​​ 

 

 

USA Govt Shutdown​​ in March,​​ January?​​ November?​​ – Monitor​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Updated: 19th​​ Jan 2024, 16 Dec 2023, Oct 2023, Nov 2023 )
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ ​​ https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/federal-government-shutdown-funding-11-14-23/index.html
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.raymondjames.com/commentary-and-insights/economy-policy/2023/09/29/weekly-economic-commentary​​ 

 


China/Taiwan – Monitor for possible aggression
as per Chinese general saying military action is considered.

 

EU – Poland – Monitor for possible Issues (Updated: 9 Oct 2021)
   after Poland Constitutional Court decision. PolExit?

European Union Dissolving? Monitor the EU for
interstate difficulties exacerbated​​ by the Covid19 epidemic
via EU Council meeting relationships degrading
– also monitor Germany’s Constitutional Court Ruling
for future implications – re EURO viability, EU partnerships,
& possible end of EU? More info here: www.cnbc.com/


China/Hong Kong – Monitor

EU – Germany’s political situation is not settled
Additional EU Entrants possible?

Syria – Could disrupt in the markets

Libya – Geopolitical/Military escalation could affect Oil Prices

ECB – Monitor statements for weakening impacts
ECB​​ outlook is becoming more pessimistic re EU Economy
Monitor any action taken if/when QE ceases at Year End.

 

 

 

 

​​ Ongoing Items

    – Impact: Very Long Term Repercussions

 

 

 

Italy – Monitor (Updated: 17 July 2022, -​​ 14 Feb 2021)
Draghi quits as PM,​​ could still impact EU
– Monitor – Budget & Banking System
– Monitor – Possible EU Penalty & alternate currency

OPEC – Monitor (Updated: 07 July 2023) 
 – Unexpectedly dropped the price​​ 
 – considering dropping USD as denomination currency
 –​​ Influence of terrorism on production has risen.

 

German Bank (WireCard) Bankrupted – Monitor for
possible future ramifications for stability
– eg domino effect a la Lehman Brothers.

 

Karlsruhe German Constitutional Court (Updated: 9 May 21)
Monitor: Decision re ECB PEPP (QE)
Could be revoked causing major impact on the German economy

 

China vs India vs Pakistan– Monitor conflicts along border.

 

 

 

 

Archive - 14th April 2024

 


MAX NewsWatch List


14th​​ April 2024

Market Open Times​​ (NY Time): 
Tokyo 8pm  –  Frankfurt 2am ​​ – ​​ London 3am ​​ – ​​ US 8am
Be careful when ​​ Daylight ​​ Saving Changes are in play
All Times are in New York Time

 

Impact

Date

Time

Cur.

News Event

 

 

 

 

 

 

N A​​ 

Sun Apr 14

6:45 p.m.

NZD

Visitor Arrivals m/m

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Mon Apr 15

2:30 a.m.

CHF

PPI m/m

 

Under H4

Mon Apr 15

5:00 a.m.

EUR

Industrial Production m/m

 

Monitor

Mon Apr 15

8:15 a.m.

CAD

Housing Starts

 

Under H4

Mon Apr 15

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Manufacturing Sales m/m

 

Under H4

Mon Apr 15

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Wholesale Sales m/m

 

Under H4

Mon Apr 15

8:30 a.m.

USD

Core Retail Sales m/m

 

Under H4

Mon Apr 15

8:30 a.m.

USD

Retail Sales m/m

 

Monitor

Mon Apr 15

Day 1

All

IMF Meetings

 

Monitor

Mon Apr 15

10:00 p.m.

CNY

GDP q/y

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Tue Apr 16

2:00 a.m.

GBP

Average Earnings Index 3m/y

 

All TFs

Tue Apr 16

5:00 a.m.

EUR

Trade Balance

 

Under H4

Tue Apr 16

5:00 a.m.

EUR

German ZEW Economic Sentiment

 

Under H4

Tue Apr 16

5:00 a.m.

EUR

ZEW Economic Sentiment

 

All TFs

Tue Apr 16

8:30 a.m.

CAD

CPI m/m

 

All TFs

Tue Apr 16

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Core CPI m/m

 

Monitor

Tue Apr 16

8:30 a.m.

USD

Housing Starts

 

Under H4

Tue Apr 16

9:15 a.m.

USD

Industrial Production m/m

 

Monitor

Tue Apr 16

Day 2

All

IMF Meetings

 

All TFs

Tue Apr 16

Tentative

NZD

GDT Price Index

 

Monitor

Tue Apr 16

Tentative

CAD

Annual Budget Release

 

All TFs

Tue Apr 16

6:45 p.m.

NZD

CPI q/q

 

All TFs

Tue Apr 16

7:50 p.m.

JPY

Trade Balance

 

Monitor

Tue Apr 16

8:30 p.m.

AUD

MI Leading Index m/m

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Wed Apr 17

2:00 a.m.

GBP

CPI y/y

 

Monitor

Wed Apr 17

2:00 a.m.

GBP

Core CPI y/y

 

Monitor

Wed Apr 17

5:00 a.m.

EUR

Final Core CPI y/y

 

Monitor

Wed Apr 17

5:00 a.m.

EUR

Final CPI y/y

 

Monitor

Wed Apr 17

Tentative

EUR

German 30-y Bond Auction

 

Monitor

Wed Apr 17

Day 3

All

IMF Meetings

 

Monitor

Wed Apr 17

10:30 a.m.

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

 

Monitor

Wed Apr 17

2:00 p.m.

USD

Beige Book

 

Under H4

Wed Apr 17

9:30 p.m.

AUD

Employment Change

 

Under H4

Wed Apr 17

9:30 p.m.

AUD

Unemployment Rate

 

Monitor

Wed Apr 17

9:30 p.m.

AUD

RBA Bulletin

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

All TFs

Thu Apr 18

2:00 a.m.

CHF

Trade Balance

 

All TFs

Thu Apr 18

4:00 a.m.

EUR

Current Account

 

Monitor

Thu Apr 18

Tentative

EUR

Spanish 10-y Bond Auction

 

Monitor

Thu Apr 18

6:00 a.m.

EUR

German Buba Monthly Report

 

Monitor

Thu Apr 18

8:30 a.m.

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

Under H4

Thu Apr 18

8:30 a.m.

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

 

Monitor

Thu Apr 18

10:00 a.m.

USD

Existing Home Sales

 

Monitor

Thu Apr 18

Day 4

All

IMF Meetings

 

Monitor

Thu Apr 18

10:30 a.m.

USD

Natural Gas Storage

 

Monitor

Thu Apr 18

7:30 p.m.

JPY

National Core CPI y/y

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Under H4

Fri Apr 19

2:00 a.m.

GBP

Retail Sales m/m

 

Monitor

Fri Apr 19

Day 5

All

IMF Meetings

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Sat Apr 20

Day 6

All

IMF Meetings

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


“Top Pairs” Lists


14th​​ April 2024

 

The Top Pairs below are ones that have moved the most in the past 4 weeks.
They are listed in $ order: largest $ to smallest $ movers.

Pick the “low-hanging fruit” i.e. pairs that have moved the​​ most,​​ 
as they are more likely to move this week.

 

Order

Pair

Avg Daily​​ 
Pip Range

Avg Daily
 ​​​​ $ Range ​​ 

Comment 

1

GBPJPY

117

773

Suggested

Best Pairs

2

CHFJPY

111

729

3

GBPUSD

69

688

4

GBPCHF

61

680

5

EURJPY

100

660

6

USDCHF

54

599

7

GBPAUD

88

579

8

USDJPY

83

547

9

EURCHF

49

546

10

GBPNZD

89

537

11

EURUSD

53

528

Less stressful?​​ 

12

GBPCAD

67

490

Maybe less profitable,

13

AUDUSD

48

479

maybe easier trades?

14

USDCAD

65

476

 

15

AUDJPY

71

465

 

 

16

EURAUD

70

463

 

17

AUDCHF

41

460

 

 

18

CADJPY

67

441

 

19

EURNZD

73

440

​​ 

20

CADCHF

38

426

​​ 

21

NZDUSD

42

424

​​ 

22

NZDCHF

37

409

Poorer performers:

23

EURCAD

54

395

Much less volatility &

24

NZDJPY

58

381

likely less profit from

25

EURGBP

25

316

these pairs based on

26

AUDCAD

41

305

their past performance

27

NZDCAD

40

292

 

28

AUDNZD

33

201

 

#E5F8FF

 

 

Short List of Each Day’s Top Pairs

Use these suggested pairs to help limit the pairs you monitor each day.
These pairs use the News Events to help narrow the​​ selection.
MAX Courses will teach you how to make this table for yourself.

Pairs at the top have more important News Events (e.g. Hi Impact) than lower pairs.

 

 

Day

Mon​​ 15th ​​​​ April

Tues​​ 16

Wed​​ 17

Thur 18

Fri 19

 

 

1st​​ 
Choices

GBPUSD or EURJPY

GBPUSD or EURJPY

GBPJPY or CHFJPY

EURCHF or CHFJPY

GBPJPY or GBPUSD

GBPCAD, USDCHF or USDJPY

GBPCAD, USDCHF or USDJPY

EURJPY or USDJPY

GBPUSD or EURJPY

GBPCHF or GBPAUD

 

2nd​​ 
Choices

EURCHF or GBPJPY

EURCHF or GBPNZD

GBPNZD or GBPUSD

USDCHF,​​ GBPAUD or USDJPY

GBPNZD or CHFJPY

 

 

 

 

Smooth Movers


These pairs might be less volatile & easier to trade.

 

 

 

Forex Pairs


If you are uncomfortable with the faster more volatile pairs above, you could consider monitoring/trading these ones​​ instead.


Less money, but possibly less volatility & stress.

 

 

Indices


Consider trading these indices, too.
Be careful, take your time & make certain you know how they move. They use points & fractions of points.
Some brokers allow trading the​​ Indices by CFDs, instead of Futures.​​ 
Check with your broker for more info.

 

  • EURUSD

  • GBPCAD

  • AUDUSD

  • USDCAD

  • DAX

  • DOW Jones

  • NASDAQ

  • S&P 500

  • FTS100

  • NK225

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Longer Term Issues​​ 

 
14th​​ April 2024


Last modified ​​ –​​ China: Real Estate crisis threatens Banks  ​​​​ - 30th​​ March 2024  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ 

​​ 

​​ Critical Items

    – Impact: Possible Immediate Impact

 

   ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ 

 

Japan – Monitor –​​ Accomplished: ​​ Mon 18th​​ Mar: BOJ Policy Rate now +0.1% from -0.1%  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1274087-bank-of-japans-policy-shift-ushers-in-a?&highlight=japan
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Japan is set to end its decades-long negative interest rates policy​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1273141-japan-on-cusp-of-ending-its-negative-interest?&highlight=japan
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Added 16 March 2024)

 


All Countries– Inflation ​​ ​​ (Added:  30th April 2023)
–​​ Closely monitor the Central Banks (Fed & others) for​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Recession mitigation & Interest Rate Changes.

 

USSR/Ukraine – Monitor (Updated: 18th Sept 2022,24 Feb 2022 & 2021))

 


Israel & Iran & Gaza/Hamas – Monitor – Conflict Escalation & Possible Nuclear Arsenal

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​  (Update: 14 Oct 2023, ​​​​ 22 Aug 21)
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Monitor - ​​ Red Sea skirmishes ​​ ​​ (Added: ​​ 23rd​​ Dec 2023)

China –​​ Real Estate/Evergrande issue -​​ ​​ possible deflation setting up  ​​ ​​​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Updated: 30 March 2024, 3​​ Feb 2024, ​​ 25 Nov 2023, 19 Aug 2023 ​​ & 26 Aug 21) ​​ ​​​​ Monitor ​​ - impact on trading partners​​ - esp Aus & NZ

 ​​ ​​​​  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1235581-china-new-loans-plunge-to-2009-low-in?&highlight=china
 ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Monitor – Another bank, Zhongzhi, has collapsed. It supported construction companies & they are weak.​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://techstory.in/china-deals-with-debt-blow/
- ​​ Real Estate crisis​​ threatens banks
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://creditnews.com/markets/chinas-property-crisis-threatens-the-countrys-largest-banks/
– Evergrande in liquidation
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/29/evergrande-shares-halted-after-hong-kong-court-orders-liquidation-.html
– Zhongzhi Enterprise​​ Group ( China’s largest shadow bank) is declaring itself “severely insolvent.” Involved in trust, wealth funds & real estate projects & management.​​ 

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://english.elpais.com/economy-and-business/2023-11-24/zhongzhi-one-of-chinas-major-shadow-banks-declares-itself-severely-insolvent.html

– Evergrande has filed for bankruptcy in the US

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.reuters.com/legal/china-evergrande-files-chapter-15-bankruptcy-us-court-filing-2023-08-17/
– Monitor as it could impact China’s banking system
– Evergrande defaulted on an interest payment to Australia 1st Oct 2021

 

           ​​ 

Silicon Valley Bank collapse​​ + contagion?​​  ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Updated 18 March 2023, Added:  11 March 2023)

 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor: Still ongoing impacts in US & includes the global banking system.
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ SVB, Silvergate, Signature, Credit Suisse & now First Republic
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_banking_crisis​​ 

BRICs – 5 more countries have joined  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Added:  11 March 2023)
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.cmegroup.com/openmarkets/fx/2023/Are-Threats-to-the-USDs-Role-as-a-Reserve-Currency-Real.html

 

 

All Countries– Covid19 – Corona Virus
– Monitor for business changes.

 

US vs China– Monitor Trade war
Pay attention to any escalation 



Goldman Sachs Analysis – Be prudent about the analysis re US economy
(22 Aug 2021)


Afghanistan – Unfolding Situation (Updated: 22 Aug 21)

 

 

 

​​ 

​​ Important Items

    – Impact: Medium Term Impact

 

 

 

US Dollar losing primacy as Reserve Currency  (Added:  23 March 2022)
   Russia demanding Roubles or Yuan instead of USD for payments.
https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1146816-the-us-dollars-global-standing-as-the-top
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/putin-says-russia-will-start-selling-gas-unfriendly-countries-roubles-2022-03-23/

 


Russia Rouble Unsteady  ​​ ​​ ​​​​ – (Added:  15h July 2023)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor ​​ -​​ impact from sanctions & war
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.forexfactory.com/search?searchid=44391641​​ 

 

 

USSR Leadership issues ​​ – Monitor (Added:  1st July 2023)

 

 

USSR/Balkin states​​ –​​ Monitor (Added 1 Oct 2023)
           ​​ Conflicts are starting to be seen​​ 

 

Banks under Scrutiny by ECB  ​​ ​​​​ – (Added:  4th December 2022)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor for limited credit causing financial problems​​ 
 ​​​​ ​​ Effects Deutsche Bank & BNP Paribas

Banks warned of​​ CRE (Commercial Real Estate) Risks  ​​​​ – (Added:  11th February 2024)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor for limited credit causing financial problems​​ 
 ​​​​ ​​ Effects Deutsche Bank & BNP Paribas
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://financialpost.com/fp-finance/banking/commercial-real-estate-contagion-spreads-to-europe
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/ecb-warns-banks-to-grasp-real-estate-risks-or-face-capital-hits-1.2033023​​ 

 

 

US-Iran Tension Escalation

USA Govt Shutdown​​ in March,​​ January?​​ November?​​ – Monitor​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Updated: 19th​​ Jan 2024, 16 Dec​​ 2023, Oct 2023, Nov 2023 )
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ ​​ https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/federal-government-shutdown-funding-11-14-23/index.html
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​  ​​ ​​​​ https://www.raymondjames.com/commentary-and-insights/economy-policy/2023/09/29/weekly-economic-commentary​​ 

 


China/Taiwan – Monitor for possible aggression
as per Chinese general saying military action is considered.

 

EU – Poland – Monitor for possible Issues (Updated: 9 Oct 2021)
   after Poland Constitutional Court decision. PolExit?

European Union Dissolving? Monitor the EU for
interstate difficulties exacerbated by the Covid19 epidemic
via EU Council meeting relationships degrading
– also monitor Germany’s Constitutional Court Ruling
for future implications – re EURO viability, EU partnerships,
& possible end of EU? More​​ info here: www.cnbc.com/


China/Hong Kong – Monitor

EU – Germany’s political situation is not settled
Additional EU Entrants possible?

Syria – Could disrupt in the markets

Libya – Geopolitical/Military escalation could affect Oil Prices

ECB – Monitor​​ statements for weakening impacts
ECB outlook is becoming more pessimistic re EU Economy
Monitor any action taken if/when QE ceases at Year End.

 

 

 

 

​​ Ongoing Items

    – Impact: Very Long Term Repercussions

 

 

 

Italy – Monitor (Updated: 17 July​​ 2022, -​​ 14 Feb 2021)
Draghi quits as PM, could still impact EU
– Monitor – Budget & Banking System
– Monitor – Possible EU Penalty & alternate currency

OPEC – Monitor (Updated: 07 July 2023) 
 – Unexpectedly dropped the price​​ 
 – considering​​ dropping USD as denomination currency
 – Influence of terrorism on production has risen.

 

German Bank (WireCard) Bankrupted – Monitor for
possible future ramifications for stability
– eg domino effect a la Lehman Brothers.

 

Karlsruhe German Constitutional​​ Court (Updated: 9 May 21)
Monitor: Decision re ECB PEPP (QE)
Could be revoked causing major impact on the German economy

 

China vs India vs Pakistan– Monitor conflicts along border.

 

 

 

 

Archive - 7th April 2024

 


MAX NewsWatch List


7th​​ April 2024

Market Open Times​​ (NY Time): 
Tokyo 8pm  –  Frankfurt​​ 2am ​​ – ​​ London​​ 3am ​​ – ​​ US 8am
Be careful when ​​ Daylight ​​ Saving Changes are in play
All Times are in New York Time

 

Impact

Date

Time

Cur.

News Event

 

 

 

 

 

 

Daylight

Sat Apr 6

10:00 a.m.

NZD

Daylight Saving Time Shift

 

Daylight

Sat Apr 6

12:00 p.m.

AUD

Daylight Saving Time Shift

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

All TFs

Sun Apr 7

7:50​​ p.m.

JPY

Current Account

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Mon Apr 8

1:00​​ a.m.

JPY

Economy Watchers Sentiment

 

Monitor

Mon Apr 8

6:00​​ p.m.

NZD

NZIER Business Confidence

 

Monitor

Mon Apr 8

9:30​​ p.m.

AUD

NAB Business Confidence

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Tue Apr 9

1:00​​ a.m.

JPY

Consumer Confidence

 

Hi Impact

Tue Apr 9

10:00​​ p.m.

NZD

Official Cash Rate

 

Hi Impact

Tue Apr 9

10:00​​ p.m.

NZD

RBNZ Rate Statement

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Wed Apr 10

10th-15th

CNY

New Loans

 

Monitor

Wed Apr 10

10th-15th

CNY

M2 Money Supply y/y

 

All TFs

Wed Apr 10

8:30​​ a.m.

USD

Core CPI m/m

 

All TFs

Wed Apr 10

8:30​​ a.m.

USD

CPI m/m

 

Monitor

Wed Apr 10

8:30​​ a.m.

USD

CPI y/y

 

Hi Impact

Wed Apr 10

9:45​​ a.m.

CAD

BOC Monetary Policy Report

 

Hi Impact

Wed Apr 10

9:45​​ a.m.

CAD

BOC Rate Statement

 

Hi Impact

Wed Apr 10

9:45​​ a.m.

CAD

Overnight Rate

 

Hi Impact

Wed Apr 10

10:30​​ a.m.

CAD

BOC Press Conference

 

Monitor

Wed Apr 10

10:30​​ a.m.

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

 

Monitor

Wed Apr 10

1:01​​ p.m.

USD

10-y Bond Auction

 

Monitor

Wed Apr 10

2:00​​ p.m.

USD

FOMC Meeting Minutes

 

Monitor

Wed Apr 10

2:00​​ p.m.

USD

Federal Budget Balance

 

Monitor

Wed Apr 10

9:00​​ p.m.

AUD

MI Inflation Expectations

 

Monitor

Wed Apr 10

9:30​​ p.m.

CNY

CPI y/y

 

Monitor

Wed Apr 10

9:30​​ p.m.

CNY

PPI y/y

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Thu Apr 11

4:30​​ a.m.

GBP

BOE Credit Conditions Survey

 

Monitor

Thu Apr 11

All Day

EUR

Eurogroup Meetings

 

Hi Impact

Thu Apr 11

8:15​​ a.m.

EUR

Main Refinancing Rate

 

Hi Impact

Thu Apr 11

8:15​​ a.m.

EUR

Monetary Policy Statement

 

Monitor

Thu Apr 11

8:30​​ a.m.

USD

Core PPI m/m

 

Monitor

Thu Apr 11

8:30​​ a.m.

USD

PPI m/m

 

Monitor

Thu Apr 11

8:30​​ a.m.

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

Hi Impact

Thu Apr 11

8:45​​ a.m.

EUR

ECB Press Conference

 

Monitor

Thu Apr 11

10:30​​ a.m.

USD

Natural Gas Storage

 

Monitor

Thu Apr 11

1:01​​ p.m.

USD

30-y Bond Auction

 

Monitor

Thu Apr 11

Tentative

CNY

Trade Balance

 

Monitor

Thu Apr 11

Tentative

CNY

USD-Denominated Trade Balance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Fri Apr 12

2:00​​ a.m.

EUR

German Final CPI m/m

 

All TFs

Fri Apr 12

2:00​​ a.m.

GBP

GDP m/m

 

Under H4

Fri Apr 12

2:00​​ a.m.

GBP

Industrial Production m/m

 

Under H4

Fri Apr 12

2:00​​ a.m.

GBP

Manufacturing Production m/m

 

Monitor

Fri Apr 12

All Day

EUR

ECOFIN Meetings

 

Monitor

Fri Apr 12

Tentative

GBP

NIESR GDP Estimate

 

Under H4

Fri Apr 12

10:00​​ a.m.

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

 

Under H4

Fri Apr 12

10:00​​ a.m.

USD

Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

N.A.

Sat Apr 13

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


“Top Pairs” Lists


7th​​ April 2024

 

The Top Pairs below are ones that have moved the most in the past 4 weeks.
They are listed in $ order: largest $ to smallest $ movers.

Pick the “low-hanging fruit” i.e. pairs that have moved the​​ most,​​ 
as they are more likely to move this week.

 

Order

Pair

Avg Daily​​ 
Pip Range

Avg Daily
 ​​​​ $ Range ​​ 

Comment 

1

GBPJPY

117

773

Suggested

Best Pairs

2

CHFJPY

111

729

3

GBPUSD

69

688

4

GBPCHF

61

680

5

EURJPY

100

660

6

USDCHF

54

599

7

GBPAUD

88

579

8

USDJPY

83

547

9

EURCHF

49

546

10

GBPNZD

89

537

11

EURUSD

53

528

Less stressful?​​ 

12

GBPCAD

67

490

Maybe less profitable,

13

AUDUSD

48

479

maybe easier trades?

14

USDCAD

65

476

 

15

AUDJPY

71

465

 

 

16

EURAUD

70

463

 

17

AUDCHF

41

460

 

 

18

CADJPY

67

441

 

19

EURNZD

73

440

​​ 

20

CADCHF

38

426

​​ 

21

NZDUSD

42

424

​​ 

22

NZDCHF

37

409

Poorer performers:

23

EURCAD

54

395

Much less volatility &

24

NZDJPY

58

381

likely less profit from

25

EURGBP

25

316

these pairs based on

26

AUDCAD

41

305

their past performance

27

NZDCAD

40

292

 

28

AUDNZD

33

201

 

#E5F8FF

 

 

Short List of Each Day’s Top Pairs

Use these suggested pairs to help limit the pairs you monitor each day.
These pairs use the News Events to help narrow the​​ selection.
MAX Courses will teach you how to make this table for yourself.

Pairs at the top have more important News Events (e.g. Hi Impact) than lower pairs.

 

 

Day

Mon​​ 8th ​​​​ April

Tues​​ 9

Wed​​ 10

Thur​​ 11

Fri​​ 12

 

 

1st​​ 
Choices

GBPJPY or CHFJPY

GBPNZD or GBPJPY

GBPNZD or GBPUSD

EURJPY or EURCHF

GBPUSD or GBPJPY

EURJPY or USDJPY

CHFJPY or GBPUSD​​ 

USDCHF or USDJPY

GBPJPY or CHFJPY

GBPCHF or USDCHF

 

2nd​​ 
Choices

GBPUSD or GBPCHF

GBPCHF or EURJPY

GBPJPY or CHFJPY

GBPUSD or GBPCHF

GBPAUD, USDJPY or GBPNZD

 

 

 

 

Smooth Movers


These pairs might be less volatile & easier to trade.

 

 

 

Forex Pairs


If you are uncomfortable with the faster more volatile pairs​​ above, you could consider monitoring/trading these ones instead.


Less money, but possibly less volatility & stress.

 

 

Indices


Consider trading these indices, too.
Be careful, take your time & make certain you know how they move. They use points & fractions of points.
Some brokers allow trading the Indices by CFDs, instead of Futures.​​ 
Check with your broker for more info.

 

  • EURUSD

  • GBPCAD

  • AUDUSD

  • USDCAD

  • DAX

  • DOW Jones

  • NASDAQ

  • S&P 500

  • FTS100

  • NK225

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Longer Term Issues​​ 

 
7th​​ April​​ 2024


Last modified ​​ –​​ China: Real Estate crisis threatens Banks  ​​​​ - 30th​​ March 2024  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ 

​​ 

​​ Critical Items

    – Impact: Possible Immediate Impact

 

   ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ 

 

Japan – Monitor –​​ Accomplished: ​​ Mon 18th​​ Mar: BOJ Policy Rate now +0.1% from -0.1%  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1274087-bank-of-japans-policy-shift-ushers-in-a?&highlight=japan
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Japan is set to end its decades-long negative interest rates policy​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1273141-japan-on-cusp-of-ending-its-negative-interest?&highlight=japan
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Added 16 March 2024)

 


All Countries– Inflation ​​ ​​ (Added:  30th April 2023)
–​​ Closely monitor the Central Banks (Fed & others) for​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Recession mitigation & Interest Rate Changes.

 

USSR/Ukraine – Monitor (Updated: 18th Sept 2022,24 Feb 2022 & 2021))

 


Israel & Iran & Gaza/Hamas – Monitor – Conflict Escalation & Possible Nuclear Arsenal

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​  (Update: 14 Oct 2023, ​​​​ 22 Aug 21)
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Monitor - ​​ Red Sea skirmishes ​​ ​​ (Added: ​​ 23rd​​ Dec 2023)

China –​​ Real Estate/Evergrande issue -​​ ​​ possible deflation setting up  ​​ ​​​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Updated: 30 March 2024, 3​​ Feb 2024, ​​ 25 Nov 2023, 19 Aug 2023 ​​ & 26 Aug 21) ​​ ​​​​ Monitor ​​ - impact on trading partners​​ - esp Aus & NZ

 ​​ ​​​​  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1235581-china-new-loans-plunge-to-2009-low-in?&highlight=china
 ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Monitor – Another bank, Zhongzhi, has collapsed. It supported construction companies & they are weak.​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://techstory.in/china-deals-with-debt-blow/
- ​​ Real Estate crisis​​ threatens banks
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://creditnews.com/markets/chinas-property-crisis-threatens-the-countrys-largest-banks/
– Evergrande in liquidation
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/29/evergrande-shares-halted-after-hong-kong-court-orders-liquidation-.html
– Zhongzhi Enterprise​​ Group ( China’s largest shadow bank) is declaring itself “severely insolvent.” Involved in trust, wealth funds & real estate projects & management.​​ 

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://english.elpais.com/economy-and-business/2023-11-24/zhongzhi-one-of-chinas-major-shadow-banks-declares-itself-severely-insolvent.html

– Evergrande has filed for bankruptcy in the US

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.reuters.com/legal/china-evergrande-files-chapter-15-bankruptcy-us-court-filing-2023-08-17/
– Monitor as it could impact China’s banking system
– Evergrande defaulted on an interest payment to Australia 1st Oct 2021

 

           ​​ 

Silicon Valley Bank collapse​​ + contagion?​​  ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Updated 18 March 2023, Added:  11 March 2023)

 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor: Still ongoing impacts in US & includes the global banking system.
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ SVB, Silvergate, Signature, Credit Suisse & now First Republic
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_banking_crisis​​ 

BRICs – 5 more countries have joined  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Added:  11 March 2023)
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.cmegroup.com/openmarkets/fx/2023/Are-Threats-to-the-USDs-Role-as-a-Reserve-Currency-Real.html

 

 

All Countries– Covid19 – Corona Virus
– Monitor for business changes.

 

US vs China– Monitor Trade war
Pay attention to any escalation 

 

 

China- Real Estate/Evergrande issue ​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Updated: 30 March 2024, 3 Feb 2024, ​​ 25 Nov 2023, 19 Aug 2023 ​​ & 26 Aug 21)
- ​​ Real Estate crisis threatens banks
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://creditnews.com/markets/chinas-property-crisis-threatens-the-countrys-largest-banks/
– Evergrande in liquidation
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/29/evergrande-shares-halted-after-hong-kong-court-orders-liquidation-.html
– Zhongzhi Enterprise Group ( China’s largest shadow bank) is declaring itself “severely insolvent.” Involved in trust, wealth funds & real estate projects & management.​​ 

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://english.elpais.com/economy-and-business/2023-11-24/zhongzhi-one-of-chinas-major-shadow-banks-declares-itself-severely-insolvent.html

– Evergrande has filed for bankruptcy in the US

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.reuters.com/legal/china-evergrande-files-chapter-15-bankruptcy-us-court-filing-2023-08-17/
– Monitor as it could impact China’s banking system
– Evergrande defaulted on an interest payment to Australia 1st Oct 2021


Goldman Sachs Analysis – Be prudent about the analysis re US economy
(22 Aug 2021)


Afghanistan – Unfolding Situation (Updated: 22 Aug 21)

 

 

 

​​ 

​​ Important Items

    – Impact: Medium Term Impact

 

 

 

US Dollar losing primacy as Reserve Currency  (Added:  23 March 2022)
   Russia demanding Roubles or Yuan instead of USD for payments.
https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1146816-the-us-dollars-global-standing-as-the-top
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/putin-says-russia-will-start-selling-gas-unfriendly-countries-roubles-2022-03-23/

 


Russia Rouble Unsteady  ​​ ​​ ​​​​ – (Added:  15h July 2023)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor ​​ -​​ impact from sanctions & war
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.forexfactory.com/search?searchid=44391641​​ 

 

 

USSR Leadership issues ​​ – Monitor (Added:  1st July 2023)

 

 

USSR/Balkin states​​ –​​ Monitor (Added 1 Oct 2023)
           ​​ Conflicts are starting to be seen​​ 

 

Banks under Scrutiny by ECB  ​​ ​​​​ – (Added:  4th December 2022)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor for limited credit causing financial problems​​ 
 ​​​​ ​​ Effects Deutsche Bank & BNP Paribas

Banks warned of​​ CRE (Commercial Real Estate) Risks  ​​​​ – (Added:  11th February 2024)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor for limited credit causing financial problems​​ 
 ​​​​ ​​ Effects Deutsche Bank & BNP Paribas
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://financialpost.com/fp-finance/banking/commercial-real-estate-contagion-spreads-to-europe
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/ecb-warns-banks-to-grasp-real-estate-risks-or-face-capital-hits-1.2033023​​ 

 

 

US-Iran Tension Escalation

USA Govt Shutdown​​ in March,​​ January?​​ November?​​ – Monitor​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Updated: 19th​​ Jan 2024, 16 Dec​​ 2023, Oct 2023, Nov 2023 )
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ ​​ https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/federal-government-shutdown-funding-11-14-23/index.html
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​  ​​ ​​​​ https://www.raymondjames.com/commentary-and-insights/economy-policy/2023/09/29/weekly-economic-commentary​​ 

 


China/Taiwan – Monitor for possible aggression
as per Chinese general saying military action is considered.

 

EU – Poland – Monitor for possible Issues (Updated: 9 Oct 2021)
   after Poland Constitutional Court decision. PolExit?

European Union Dissolving? Monitor the EU for
interstate difficulties exacerbated by the Covid19 epidemic
via EU Council meeting relationships degrading
– also monitor Germany’s Constitutional Court Ruling
for future implications – re EURO viability, EU partnerships,
& possible end of EU? More​​ info here: www.cnbc.com/


China/Hong Kong – Monitor

EU – Germany’s political situation is not settled
Additional EU Entrants possible?

Syria – Could disrupt in the markets

Libya – Geopolitical/Military escalation could affect Oil Prices

ECB – Monitor​​ statements for weakening impacts
ECB outlook is becoming more pessimistic re EU Economy
Monitor any action taken if/when QE ceases at Year End.

 

 

 

 

​​ Ongoing Items

    – Impact: Very Long Term Repercussions

 

 

 

Italy – Monitor (Updated: 17 July​​ 2022, -​​ 14 Feb 2021)
Draghi quits as PM, could still impact EU
– Monitor – Budget & Banking System
– Monitor – Possible EU Penalty & alternate currency

OPEC – Monitor (Updated: 07 July 2023) 
 – Unexpectedly dropped the price​​ 
 – considering​​ dropping USD as denomination currency
 – Influence of terrorism on production has risen.

 

German Bank (WireCard) Bankrupted – Monitor for
possible future ramifications for stability
– eg domino effect a la Lehman Brothers.

 

Karlsruhe German Constitutional​​ Court (Updated: 9 May 21)
Monitor: Decision re ECB PEPP (QE)
Could be revoked causing major impact on the German economy

 

China vs India vs Pakistan– Monitor conflicts along border.