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April - June 2023 Archive
NewsWatch & Best Pairs Lists

Archive of Date 2023

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Archive - 25th June 2023

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MAX NewsWatch List

 

 

 

 

 

25th​​ June 2023


Market Open Times​​ (NY Time): 
US 8am ​​ –  Tokyo ?pm  –  Frankfurt 2am ​​ – ​​ London 3am
Be careful when ​​ Daylight ​​ Saving Changes are in play

All Times are in New York Times

Impact

Date

Time

Currency

News Event

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Sun Jun 25

7:50 p.m.

JPY

BOJ Summary of Opinions

.

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Mon Jun 26

4:00 a.m.

EUR

German ifo Business Climate

Monitor

Mon Jun 26

6:00 a.m.

EUR

German Buba Monthly Report

Monitor

Mon Jun 26

1:30 p.m.

EUR

ECB President Lagarde Speaks

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Tue Jun 27

1:00 a.m.

JPY

BOJ Core CPI y/y

All TFs

Tue Jun 27

8:30 a.m.

CAD

CPI m/m

All TFs

Tue Jun 27

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Core CPI m/m

Under H4

Tue Jun 27

8:30 a.m.

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders m/m

Under H4

Tue Jun 27

8:30 a.m.

USD

Durable Goods Orders m/m

All TFs

Tue Jun 27

10:00 a.m.

USD

CB Consumer Confidence

Monitor

Tue Jun 27

10:00 a.m.

USD

New Home Sales

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Wed Jun 28

2:00 a.m.

EUR

German GfK Consumer Climate

Monitor

Wed Jun 28

4:00 a.m.

CHF

Credit Suisse Economic Expectations

All TFs

Wed Jun 28

4:00 a.m.

EUR

M3 Money Supply y/y

Monitor

Wed Jun 28

9:00 a.m.

CHF

SNB Quarterly Bulletin

Monitor

Wed Jun 28

9:30 a.m.

EUR

ECB President Lagarde Speaks

Monitor

Wed Jun 28

10:30 a.m.

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

Monitor

Wed Jun 28

11:00 a.m.

EUR

ECB President Lagarde Speaks

Monitor

Wed Jun 28

4:30 p.m.

USD

Bank Stress Test Results

Monitor

Wed Jun 28

9:00 p.m.

NZD

ANZ Business Confidence

Monitor

Wed Jun 28

9:30 p.m.

AUD

Retail Sales m/m

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Thu Jun 29

1:00 a.m.

JPY

Consumer Confidence

Under H4

Thu Jun 29

29th-3rd

GBP

Nationwide HPI m/m

Monitor

Thu Jun 29

All Day

EUR

German Prelim CPI m/m

Holiday

Thu Jun 29

All Day

EUR

Italian Bank Holiday

Monitor

Thu Jun 29

4:00 a.m.

EUR

ECB Economic Bulletin

Under H4

Thu Jun 29

8:30 a.m.

USD

Final GDP q/q

Monitor

Thu Jun 29

8:30 a.m.

USD

Unemployment Claims

Monitor

Thu Jun 29

8:30 a.m.

USD

Final GDP Price Index q/q

Monitor

Thu Jun 29

10:30 a.m.

USD

Natural Gas Storage

Monitor

Thu Jun 29

7:30 p.m.

JPY

Tokyo Core CPI y/y

Monitor

Thu Jun 29

9:30 p.m.

CNY

Manufacturing PMI

Monitor

Thu Jun 29

9:30 p.m.

CNY

Non-Manufacturing PMI

Monitor

Thu Jun 29

Tentative

NZD

RBNZ Statement of Intent

 

 

 

 

 

All TFs

Fri Jun 30

2:00 a.m.

GBP

Current Account

Monitor

Fri Jun 30

2:00 a.m.

GBP

Final GDP q/q

Monitor

Fri Jun 30

3:00 a.m.

CHF

KOF Economic Barometer

Monitor

Fri Jun 30

5:00 a.m.

EUR

CPI Flash Estimate y/y

Monitor

Fri Jun 30

5:00 a.m.

EUR

Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y

Monitor

Fri Jun 30

5:00 a.m.

EUR

Unemployment Rate

Monitor

Fri Jun 30

Tentative

EUR

Italian 10-y Bond Auction

All TFs

Fri Jun 30

8:30 a.m.

CAD

GDP m/m

All TFs

Fri Jun 30

8:30 a.m.

USD

Core PCE Price Index m/m

Under H4

Fri Jun 30

9:45 a.m.

USD

Chicago PMI

Monitor

Fri Jun 30

10:30 a.m.

CAD

BOC Business Outlook Survey

 

 

 

 

 

N.A.

Sat Jul 1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


“Top Pairs” Lists


25th​​ June 2023​​ 

 

The Top Pairs below are ones that have moved the most in the past 4 weeks.
They are listed in $ order: largest $ to smallest $ movers.

Pick the “low-hanging fruit” i.e. pairs that have moved the​​ most,​​ 
as they are more likely to move this week.

 

Last week

Pair

Avg Daily​​ 
Pip Range

Avg Daily
 ​​​​ $ Range ​​ 

 

1

GBPJPY

150

1044

Suggested

Best Pairs

2

GBPAUD

153

1024

3

GBPUSD

97

973

4

GBPNZD

151

928

5

CHFJPY

130

903

6

USDJPY

120

838

7

GBPCHF

74

822

8

EURAUD

123

820

9

EURJPY

116

809

10

GBPCAD

106

801

11

USDCHF

71

796

 

12

EURNZD

122

747

Less stressful?​​ 

13

EURUSD

74

739

Not as profitable as the

14

CADJPY

101

703

“Best Pairs”

15

AUDJPY

101

700

but possibly easier​​ 

16

AUDUSD

70

700

to trade.

17

EURCAD

92

695

 

 

18

NZDUSD

59

594

 

19

EURGBP

46

582

 

20

CADCHF

51

571

 

21

NZDJPY

82

571

 

22

AUDCHF

51

570

Poorer performers:

23

USDCAD

73

554

Much less volatility &

24

AUDCAD

71

537

likely less profit from

25

EURCHF

45

507

these pairs based on

26

NZDCAD

63

478

their past performance

27

NZDCHF

43

474

 

28

AUDNZD

61

375

 

#E5F8FF

 

 

 

Short List of Each Day’s Top Pairs

Use these suggested pairs to help limit the pairs you monitor each day.
These pairs use the News​​ Events to help narrow the selection.
MAX Courses will teach you how to make this table for yourself.

Pairs at the top have more important News Events (e.g. Hi Impact) than lower pairs.

 

 

Day

Mon​​ 26

Tues 27

Wed 28

Thur 29

Fri​​ 30

 

 

1st Choices

GBPJPY or GBPAUD

GBPUSD or USDJPY

EURAUD or EURJPY

GBPUSD or GBPJPY

GBPUSD or GBPCAD

GBPUSD or GBPNZD

GBPJPY or GBPAUD

GBPJPY or GBPAUD

GBPAUD or GBPNZD

GBPJPY or GBPAUD

 

2nd Choices

CHFJPY or USDJPY

GBPNZD or CHFJPY

GBPUSD or GBPNZD

USDJPY,​​ GBPCHF or GBPCAD

GBPNZD, USDJPY or GBPCHF

 

 

 

 

 

Smooth Movers


These pairs might be less volatile & easier to trade.

 

 

 

Forex Pairs


If you are uncomfortable with the faster more volatile pairs above, you could consider​​ monitoring/trading these ones instead.


Less money, but possibly less volatility & stress.

 

 

Indices


Consider trading these indices, too.
Be careful, take your time & make certain you know how they move. They use points & fractions of points.
Some brokers​​ allow trading the Indices by CFDs, instead of Futures.​​ 
Check with your broker for more info.

 

  • USDCHF

  • EURNZD

  • EURUSD

  • CADJPY

  • AUDJPY

  • AUDUSD

  • EURCAD

  • NZDUSD

  • DAX

  • DOW Jones

  • NASDAQ

  • S&P 500

  • FTS100

  • NK225

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Longer Term Issues​​ 

 
25th​​ June 2023


Last modified:​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ 10th​​ June 2023​​ –​​ (US Debt Ceiling & Credit Suisse removed)

 

 

​​ 

​​ Critical Items

    – Impact: Possible Immediate Impact

 

 

All Countries– Inflation ​​ ​​ (Added:  30th​​ April​​ 2023)
–​​ Closely monitor the Central Banks (Fed & others) for​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Recession mitigation & Interest Rate Changes.

 

Silicon Valley Bank collapse​​ + contagion?
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Updated 18 March 2023,Added:  11 March 2023)

 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor: Still ongoing impacts in US & includes the global banking system.
SVB, Silvergate, Signature, Credit Suisse & now First Republic
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_banking_crisis​​ 

 

All Countries– Covid19 – Corona Virus
– Monitor for business changes/closures as lockdowns start to expire.

 

 

USSR/Ukraine/USA – Monitor (Updated: 18th Sept 2022,24 Feb 2022 (from Feb 2021))
           ​​ Beware – this conflict has escalated

 

Credit Suisse – Monitor (Updated 18 March 2023, Added: 9 Oct 2022)
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Possible merger with USB due to CS’s deposit withdrawals & stock slide.
           Possible bankruptcy due to margin calls 

 

 

US vs​​ China– Monitor Trade war
Pay attention to any escalation 

 

 

China- Evergrande issue  (Updated: 26 Aug 21)
– Monitor as it could impact China’s banking system
– Evergrande defaulted on an interest payment to Australia 1st Oct 2021


Israel & Iran & Gaza – Monitor – Conflict Escalation & Possible Nuclear Arsenal (Update: 22 Aug​​ 21)


Goldman Sachs Analysis – Be prudent about the analysis re US economy
(22 Aug 2021)


Afghanistan – Unfolding Situation (Updated: 22 Aug 21)

 

 

 

​​ 

​​ Important Items

    – Impact: Medium Term Impact

 

 

 

US Dollar losing primacy as Reserve​​ Currency  (Added:  23 March 2022)
   Russia demanding Roubles or Yuan instead of USD for payments.
https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1146816-the-us-dollars-global-standing-as-the-top
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/putin-says-russia-will-start-selling-gas-unfriendly-countries-roubles-2022-03-23/

 


Banks under Scrutiny by ECB  ​​ ​​​​ – (Added:  4th December 2022)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor for limited credit causing financial problems​​ 
 ​​​​ ​​ Effects Deutsche Bank & BNP Paribas

US-Iran Tension Escalation

China/Taiwan – Monitor for possible aggression
as per Chinese general saying military action is considered.

 

EU – Poland – Monitor for possible Issues (Updated: 9 Oct 2021)
   after Poland Constitutional Court decision.​​ PolExit?

European Union Dissolving? Monitor the EU for
interstate difficulties exacerbated by the Covid19 epidemic
via EU Council meeting relationships degrading
– also monitor Germany’s Constitutional Court Ruling
for future implications – re EURO viability, EU partnerships,
& possible end of EU? More info here: www.cnbc.com/


China/Hong Kong – Monitor

EU – Germany’s political situation is not settled
Additional EU Entrants possible?

Syria – Could disrupt in the markets

Libya – Geopolitical/Military escalation could affect Oil Prices

ECB – Monitor statements for weakening impacts
ECB outlook is becoming more pessimistic re EU Economy
Monitor any action taken if/when QE ceases at Year End.

 

 

 

 

​​ Ongoing Items

    – Impact: Very Long Term​​ Repercussions

 

 

 

Italy – Monitor (Updated: 17 July 2022, -​​ 14 Feb 2021)
Draghi quits as PM, could still impact EU
– Monitor – Budget & Banking System
– Monitor – Possible EU Penalty & alternate currency

OPEC – Monitor (Updated: 07 July 2023) 
 –​​ Unexpectedly dropped the price​​ 
 – considering dropping USD as denomination currency
 – Influence of terrorism on production has risen.

 

German Bank (WireCard) Bankrupted – Monitor for
possible future ramifications for stability
– eg domino effect a la Lehman Brothers.

 

Karlsruhe German Constitutional Court (Updated: 9 May 21)
Monitor: Decision re ECB PEPP (QE)
Could be revoked causing major impact on the German economy

 

China vs India vs Pakistan– Monitor conflicts along border.

 

 

 

 

Archive - 18th June 2023

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MAX NewsWatch List

 

 

 

 

 

18th​​ June 2023


Market Open Times​​ (NY Time): 
US 8am ​​ –  Tokyo ?pm  –  Frankfurt 2am ​​ – ​​ London 3am
Be careful when ​​ Daylight ​​ Saving Changes are in play

All Times are in New York Times

Impact

Date

Time

Currency

News Event

 

 

 

 

 

N.A.

Sun Jun 18

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Holiday

Mon Jun 19

All Day

USD

Bank Holiday

Monitor

Mon Jun 19

9:30 p.m.

AUD

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

 

 

 

 

 

All TFs

Tue Jun 20

2:00 a.m.

CHF

Trade Balance

All TFs

Tue Jun 20

4:00 a.m.

EUR

Current Account

Monitor

Tue Jun 20

8:30 a.m.

USD

Housing Starts

All TFs

Tue Jun 20

Tentative

NZD

GDT Price Index

Monitor

Tue Jun 20

7:50 p.m.

JPY

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Monitor

Tue Jun 20

8:30 p.m.

AUD

MI Leading Index m/m

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Wed Jun 21

2:00 a.m.

GBP

CPI y/y

Monitor

Wed Jun 21

2:00 a.m.

GBP

Core CPI y/y

Monitor

Wed Jun 21

Tentative

EUR

German 30-y Bond Auction

Under H4

Wed Jun 21

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Core Retail Sales m/m

Under H4

Wed Jun 21

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Retail Sales m/m

Monitor

Wed Jun 21

10:00 a.m.

USD

Fed Chair Powell Testifies

Monitor

Wed Jun 21

10:00 a.m.

USD

FOMC Member Cook Speaks

Monitor

Wed Jun 21

10:00 a.m.

USD

FOMC Member Jefferson Speaks

Monitor

Wed Jun 21

1:30 p.m.

CAD

BOC Summary of Deliberations

All TFs

Wed Jun 21

6:45 p.m.

NZD

Trade Balance

Holiday

Wed Jun 21

All Day

CNY

Bank Holiday

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Thu Jun 22

12:30 a.m.

CHF

SNB Financial Stability Report

Hi Impact

Thu Jun 22

3:30 a.m.

CHF

SNB Monetary Policy Assessment

Hi Impact

Thu Jun 22

3:30 a.m.

CHF

SNB Policy Rate

Hi Impact

Thu Jun 22

Tentative

CHF

SNB Press Conference

Hi Impact

Thu Jun 22

7:00 a.m.

GBP

MPC Official Bank Rate Votes

Hi Impact

Thu Jun 22

7:00 a.m.

GBP

Monetary Policy Summary

Hi Impact

Thu Jun 22

7:00 a.m.

GBP

Official Bank Rate

Monitor

Thu Jun 22

Tentative

GBP

BOE Inflation Letter

Monitor

Thu Jun 22

8:30 a.m.

USD

Unemployment Claims

All TFs

Thu Jun 22

8:30 a.m.

USD

Current Account

Monitor

Thu Jun 22

9:55 a.m.

USD

FOMC Member Bowman Speaks

Monitor

Thu Jun 22

10:00 a.m.

USD

Fed Chair Powell Testifies

Monitor

Thu Jun 22

10:00 a.m.

USD

Existing Home Sales

Monitor

Thu Jun 22

10:30 a.m.

USD

Natural Gas Storage

Monitor

Thu Jun 22

11:00 a.m.

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

Monitor

Thu Jun 22

7:01 p.m.

GBP

GfK Consumer Confidence

Monitor

Thu Jun 22

7:30 p.m.

JPY

National Core CPI y/y

Holiday

Thu Jun 22

All Day

CNY

Bank Holiday

 

 

 

 

 

Under H4

Fri Jun 23

2:00 a.m.

GBP

Retail Sales m/m

Monitor

Fri Jun 23

4:00 a.m.

EUR

Flash Manufacturing PMI

Monitor

Fri Jun 23

4:00 a.m.

EUR

Flash Services PMI

Monitor

Fri Jun 23

9:45 a.m.

USD

Flash Manufacturing PMI

Monitor

Fri Jun 23

9:45 a.m.

USD

Flash Services PMI

 

 

 

 

 

N.A.

Sat Jun 24

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


“Top Pairs” Lists


18th​​ June 2023​​ 

 

The Top Pairs below are ones that have moved the most in the past 4 weeks.
They are listed in $ order: largest $ to smallest $ movers.

Pick the “low-hanging fruit” i.e. pairs that have moved the​​ most,​​ 
as they are more likely to move this week.

 

Last week

Pair

Avg Daily​​ 
Pip Range

Avg Daily
 ​​​​ $ Range ​​ 

 

1

GBPNZD

160

1000

Suggested

Best Pairs

2

GBPJPY

142

998

3

GBPAUD

138

951

4

GBPUSD

95

950

5

USDJPY

121

851

6

EURNZD

135

843

7

CHFJPY

119

840

8

EURAUD

114

787

9

USDCHF

70

779

10

EURJPY

110

773

11

GBPCHF

69

768

 

12

GBPCAD

95

723

Less stressful?​​ 

13

EURCAD

91

692

Not as profitable as the

14

EURUSD

69

691

“Best Pairs”

15

CADJPY

93

659

but possibly easier​​ 

16

AUDUSD

65

653

to trade.

17

AUDJPY

91

643

 

 

18

NZDUSD

64

638

 

19

NZDJPY

84

590

 

20

CADCHF

50

562

 

21

USDCAD

73

552

 

22

EURGBP

41

528

Poorer performers:

23

AUDCHF

47

525

Much less volatility &

24

NZDCAD

69

524

likely less profit from

25

NZDCHF

46

516

these pairs based on

26

EURCHF

44

488

their past performance

27

AUDCAD

63

478

 

28

AUDNZD

63

394

 

#E5F8FF

 

 

 

Short List of Each Day’s Top Pairs

Use these suggested pairs to help limit the pairs you monitor each day.
These pairs use the News​​ Events to help narrow the selection.
MAX Courses will teach you how to make this table for yourself.

Pairs at the top have more important News Events (e.g. Hi Impact) than lower pairs.

 

 

Day

Mon 19

Tues​​ 20

Wed​​ 21

Thur​​ 22

Fri​​ 23

 

 

1st Choices

GBPNZD or GBPJPY

EURNZD or GBPNZD

GBPNZD or EURNZD

GBPNZD, GBPUSD or USDCHF

GBPNZD or GBPJPY

GBPAUD or GBPUSD

CHFJPY or EURAUD

GBPJPY or GBPAUD

GBPJPY or GBPAUD

GBPAUD or GBPUSD

 

2nd Choices

USDJPY or EURNZD

USDCHF or EURJPY

GBPCAD,​​ GBPUSD or USDJPY

USDJPY, EURNZD or CHFJPY

USDJPY​​ or EURNZD

 

 

 

 

 

Smooth Movers


These pairs might be less volatile & easier to trade.

 

 

 

Forex Pairs


If you are uncomfortable with the faster more volatile pairs above, you could consider​​ monitoring/trading these ones instead.


Less money, but possibly less volatility & stress.

 

 

Indices


Consider trading these indices, too.
Be careful, take your time & make certain you know how they move. They use points & fractions of points.
Some brokers​​ allow trading the Indices by CFDs, instead of Futures.​​ 
Check with your broker for more info.

 

  • GBPCHF

  • GBPCAD

  • EURCAD

  • EURUSD

  • CADJPY

  • AUDUSD

  • AUDJPY

  • NZDUSD

  • DAX

  • DOW Jones

  • NASDAQ

  • S&P 500

  • FTS100

  • NK225

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Longer Term Issues​​ 

 
18th​​ June 2023


Last modified ​​ – ​​ 10th​​ June 2023​​ –​​ (US Debt Ceiling & Credit Suisse removed)

 

 

​​ 

​​ Critical Items

    – Impact: Possible Immediate Impact

 

 

All Countries– Inflation ​​ ​​ (Added:  30th​​ April 2023)
–​​ Closely monitor the Central Banks (Fed & others) for​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Recession mitigation & Interest Rate Changes.

 

Silicon Valley Bank collapse​​ + contagion?
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Updated 18 March 2023,Added:  11 March 2023)

 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor: Still ongoing impacts in US & includes the global banking system.
SVB, Silvergate, Signature, Credit Suisse & now First Republic
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_banking_crisis​​ 

 

All Countries– Covid19 – Corona Virus
– Monitor for business changes/closures as lockdowns start to expire.

 

 

USSR/Ukraine/USA – Monitor (Updated: 18th Sept 2022,24 Feb 2022 (from Feb 2021))
           ​​ Beware – this conflict has escalated

 

Credit Suisse – Monitor (Updated 18 March 2023, Added: 9 Oct 2022)
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Possible merger with USB due to CS’s deposit withdrawals & stock​​ slide.
           Possible bankruptcy due to margin calls 

 

 

US vs China– Monitor Trade war
Pay attention to any escalation 

 

 

China- Evergrande issue  (Updated: 26 Aug 21)
– Monitor as it could impact China’s banking system
– Evergrande defaulted on​​ an interest payment to Australia 1st Oct 2021


Israel & Iran & Gaza – Monitor – Conflict Escalation & Possible Nuclear Arsenal (Update: 22​​ Aug 21)


Goldman Sachs Analysis – Be prudent about the analysis re US economy
(22 Aug 2021)


Afghanistan – Unfolding Situation (Updated: 22 Aug 21)

 

 

 

​​ 

​​ Important Items

    – Impact: Medium Term Impact

 

 

 

US Dollar losing primacy as​​ Reserve Currency  (Added:  23 March 2022)
   Russia demanding Roubles or Yuan instead of USD for payments.
https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1146816-the-us-dollars-global-standing-as-the-top
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/putin-says-russia-will-start-selling-gas-unfriendly-countries-roubles-2022-03-23/

 


Banks under Scrutiny by ECB  ​​ ​​​​ – (Added:  4th December 2022)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor for limited credit causing financial problems​​ 
 ​​​​ ​​ Effects Deutsche Bank & BNP Paribas

US-Iran Tension Escalation

China/Taiwan – Monitor for possible aggression
as per Chinese general saying military action is considered.

 

EU – Poland –​​ Monitor for possible Issues (Updated: 9 Oct 2021)
   after Poland Constitutional Court decision. PolExit?

European Union Dissolving? Monitor the EU for
interstate difficulties exacerbated by the Covid19 epidemic
via EU Council meeting relationships degrading
– also monitor Germany’s Constitutional Court Ruling
for future implications – re EURO viability, EU partnerships,
& possible end of EU? More info here: www.cnbc.com/


China/Hong Kong – Monitor

EU – Germany’s political situation is not settled
Additional EU Entrants possible?

Syria – Could disrupt in the markets

Libya – Geopolitical/Military escalation could affect Oil Prices

ECB – Monitor statements for weakening impacts
ECB outlook is becoming more pessimistic re EU Economy
Monitor any action taken if/when QE ceases at Year End.

 

 

 

 

​​ Ongoing Items

    – Impact: Very Long Term Repercussions

 

 

 

Italy – Monitor (Updated: 17 July 2022, -​​ 14 Feb 2021)
Draghi quits as PM, could still impact EU
– Monitor – Budget & Banking System
– Monitor –​​ Possible EU Penalty & alternate currency

OPEC – Monitor (Updated: 07 July 2023) 
 – Unexpectedly dropped the price​​ 
 – considering dropping USD as denomination currency
 – Influence of terrorism on production has risen.

 

German Bank (WireCard)​​ Bankrupted – Monitor for
possible future ramifications for stability
– eg domino effect a la Lehman Brothers.

 

Karlsruhe German Constitutional Court (Updated: 9 May 21)
Monitor: Decision re ECB PEPP (QE)
Could be revoked causing major impact on the German​​ economy

 

China vs India vs Pakistan– Monitor conflicts along border.

 

 

 

 

Archive - 10th June 2023

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MAX NewsWatch List

 

 

 

 

 

10th​​ June 2023


Market Open Times​​ (NY Time): 
US 8am ​​ –  Tokyo ?pm  –  Frankfurt 2am ​​ – ​​ London 3am
Be careful when ​​ Daylight ​​ Saving Changes are in play

All Times are in New York Times

Impact

Date

Time

Currency

News Event

 

 

 

 

 

Holiday

Sun Jun 11

All Day

AUD

Bank Holiday

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Mon Jun 12

12th-15th

CNY

New Loans

Monitor

Mon Jun 12

12th-15th

CNY

M2 Money Supply y/y

Monitor

Mon Jun 12

1:01 p.m.

USD

10-y Bond Auction

Monitor

Mon Jun 12

2:00 p.m.

USD

Federal Budget Balance

Monitor

Mon Jun 12

9:30 p.m.

AUD

NAB Business Confidence

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Tue Jun 13

2:00 a.m.

EUR

German Final CPI m/m

Monitor

Tue Jun 13

2:00 a.m.

GBP

Average Earnings Index 3m/y

Under H4

Tue Jun 13

5:00 a.m.

EUR

German ZEW Economic Sentiment

Under H4

Tue Jun 13

5:00 a.m.

EUR

ZEW Economic Sentiment

Monitor

Tue Jun 13

Tentative

GBP

10-y Bond Auction

All TFs

Tue Jun 13

8:30 a.m.

USD

CPI m/m

Monitor

Tue Jun 13

8:30 a.m.

USD

CPI y/y

All TFs

Tue Jun 13

8:30 a.m.

USD

Core CPI m/m

Monitor

Tue Jun 13

Tentative

GBP

NIESR GDP Estimate

Monitor

Tue Jun 13

10:00 a.m.

GBP

BOE Gov Bailey Speaks

Monitor

Tue Jun 13

1:01 p.m.

USD

30-y Bond Auction

All TFs

Tue Jun 13

6:45 p.m.

NZD

Current Account

 

 

 

 

 

All TFs

Wed Jun 14

2:00 a.m.

GBP

GDP m/m

Under H4

Wed Jun 14

2:00 a.m.

GBP

Industrial Production m/m

Under H4

Wed Jun 14

2:00 a.m.

GBP

Manufacturing Production m/m

Under H4

Wed Jun 14

5:00 a.m.

EUR

Industrial Production m/m

Monitor

Wed Jun 14

Tentative

EUR

German 10-y Bond Auction

Monitor

Wed Jun 14

8:30 a.m.

USD

Core PPI m/m

Monitor

Wed Jun 14

8:30 a.m.

USD

PPI m/m

Monitor

Wed Jun 14

10:30 a.m.

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

Hi Impact

Wed Jun 14

2:00 p.m.

USD

FOMC Economic Projections

Hi Impact

Wed Jun 14

2:00 p.m.

USD

FOMC Statement

Hi Impact

Wed Jun 14

2:00 p.m.

USD

Federal Funds Rate

Hi Impact

Wed Jun 14

2:30 p.m.

USD

FOMC Press Conference

All TFs

Wed Jun 14

6:45 p.m.

NZD

GDP q/q

 ​​​​ -- ​​ 

Wed Jun 14

7:50 p.m.

JPY

Core Machinery Orders m/m

All TFs

Wed Jun 14

7:50 p.m.

JPY

Trade Balance

Monitor

Wed Jun 14

9:00 p.m.

AUD

MI Inflation Expectations

Under H4

Wed Jun 14

9:30 p.m.

AUD

Employment Change

Under H4

Wed Jun 14

9:30 p.m.

AUD

Unemployment Rate

Monitor

Wed Jun 14

9:30 p.m.

AUD

RBA Bulletin

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Thu Jun 15

2:30 a.m.

CHF

PPI m/m

All TFs

Thu Jun 15

5:00 a.m.

EUR

Trade Balance

Monitor

Thu Jun 15

All Day

EUR

Eurogroup Meetings

Monitor

Thu Jun 15

Tentative

EUR

Spanish 10-y Bond Auction

Monitor

Thu Jun 15

8:15 a.m.

CAD

Housing Starts

Hi Impact

Thu Jun 15

8:15 a.m.

EUR

Main Refinancing Rate

Hi Impact

Thu Jun 15

8:15 a.m.

EUR

Monetary Policy Statement

Under H4

Thu Jun 15

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Manufacturing Sales m/m

Under H4

Thu Jun 15

8:30 a.m.

USD

Core Retail Sales m/m

Under H4

Thu Jun 15

8:30 a.m.

USD

Retail Sales m/m

Monitor

Thu Jun 15

8:30 a.m.

USD

Unemployment Claims

Under H4

Thu Jun 15

8:30 a.m.

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

Hi Impact

Thu Jun 15

8:45 a.m.

EUR

ECB Press Conference

Under H4

Thu Jun 15

9:15 a.m.

USD

Industrial Production m/m

Monitor

Thu Jun 15

10:30 a.m.

USD

Natural Gas Storage

Hi Impact

Thu Jun 15

Tentative

JPY

Monetary Policy Statement

Hi Impact

Thu Jun 15

Tentative

JPY

BOJ Policy Rate

 

 

 

 

 

Hi Impact

Fri Jun 16

Tentative

JPY

BOJ Press Conference

Monitor

Fri Jun 16

4:30 a.m.

GBP

Consumer Inflation Expectations

Monitor

Fri Jun 16

5:00 a.m.

EUR

Final CPI y/y

Monitor

Fri Jun 16

5:00 a.m.

EUR

Final Core CPI y/y

Monitor

Fri Jun 16

All Day

EUR

ECOFIN Meetings

Under H4

Fri Jun 16

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Wholesale Sales m/m

Under H4

Fri Jun 16

10:00 a.m.

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

Under H4

Fri Jun 16

10:00 a.m.

USD

Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations

 

 

 

 

 

N.A.

Sat Jun 17

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


“Top Pairs” Lists


10th​​ June 2023​​ 

 

The Top Pairs below are ones that have moved the most in the past 4 weeks.
They are listed in $ order: largest $ to smallest $ movers.

Pick the “low-hanging fruit” i.e. pairs that have moved the​​ most,​​ 
as they are more likely to move this week.

 

Last week

Pair

Avg Daily​​ 
Pip Range

Avg Daily
 ​​​​ $ Range ​​ 

 

1

GBPNZD

151

923

Suggested

Best Pairs

2

GBPJPY

127

911

3

GBPUSD

89

894

4

GBPAUD

127

854

5

USDJPY

117

838

6

EURNZD

131

802

7

EURAUD

116

784

8

CHFJPY

104

744

9

GBPCHF

67

736

10

GBPCAD

97

724

11

USDCHF

64

713

 

12

EURJPY

98

700

Less stressful?​​ 

13

EURCAD

93

695

Not as profitable as the

14

CADJPY

93

669

“Best Pairs”

15

EURUSD

64

640

but possibly easier​​ 

16

AUDJPY

88

629

to trade.

17

AUDUSD

62

617

 

 

18

NZDUSD

61

610

 

19

NZDJPY

82

588

 

20

CADCHF

51

561

 

21

USDCAD

72

537

 

22

NZDCAD

68

512

Poorer performers:

23

AUDCHF

46

508

Much less volatility &

24

NZDCHF

45

500

likely less profit from

25

EURGBP

39

485

these pairs based on

26

AUDCAD

60

453

their past performance

27

EURCHF

39

437

 

28

AUDNZD

60

368

 

#E5F8FF

 

 

 

Short List of Each Day’s Top Pairs

Use these suggested pairs to help limit the pairs you monitor each day.
These pairs use the News​​ Events to help narrow the selection.
MAX Courses will teach you how to make this table for yourself.

Pairs at the top have more important News Events (e.g. Hi Impact) than lower pairs.

 

 

Day

Mon​​ 12

Tues​​ 13

Wed​​ 14

Thur​​ 15

Fri​​ 16

 

 

1st Choices

GBPNZD or GBPJPY

GBPUSD or USDJPY

GBPUSD or USDJPY

EURNZD or EURAUD

USDJPY or​​ GBPJPY

GBPUSD or GBPAUD

EURNZD or EURAUD

GBPNZD or GBPJPY

GBPNZD or GBPCAD

CHFJPY or GBPUSD

 

2nd Choices

USDJPY or EURNZD

GBPNZD or GBPJPY

EURNZD, GBPAUD, GBPCHF or GBPCAD

GBPJPY or GBPUSD

GBPCAD or GBPNZD

 

 

 

 

 

Smooth Movers


These pairs might be less volatile & easier to trade.

 

 

 

Forex Pairs


If you are uncomfortable with the faster more volatile pairs above, you could consider monitoring/trading these ones instead.


Less​​ money, but possibly less volatility & stress.

 

 

Indices


Consider trading these indices, too.
Be careful, take your time & make certain you know how they move. They use points & fractions of points.
Some brokers allow trading the Indices by CFDs, instead of Futures.​​ 
Check with your broker for more info.

 

  • USDCHF

  • EURJPY

  • EURCAD

  • CADJPY

  • EURUSD

  • AUDJPY

  • AUDUSD

  • NZDUSD

 

  • DAX

  • DOW Jones

  • NASDAQ

  • S&P 500

  • FTS100

  • NK225

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Longer Term Issues​​ 

 
10th​​ June 2023


Last modified ​​ – ​​ 10th​​ June​​ 2023​​ –​​ (US Debt Ceiling​​ & Credit Suisse removed)

 

 

​​ 

​​ Critical Items

    – Impact: Possible Immediate Impact

 

 

US – Debt Ceiling Shenanigans ​​ ​​ (Added:  21st​​ May ​​ 2023)
–​​ Once again . . .

 

 

All Countries– Inflation ​​ ​​ (Added:  30th​​ April 2023)
–​​ Closely monitor the Central Banks (Fed & others) for​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Recession mitigation & Interest Rate Changes.

 

Silicon Valley Bank collapse​​ + contagion?
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Updated 18 March 2023,Added:  11​​ March 2023)

 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor: Still ongoing impacts in US & includes the global banking system.
SVB, Silvergate, Signature, Credit Suisse & now First Republic
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_banking_crisis​​ 

 

All Countries– Covid19 – Corona Virus
– Monitor for business changes/closures as lockdowns start to expire.

 

 

USSR/Ukraine/USA – Monitor (Updated: 18th Sept 2022,24 Feb 2022 (from Feb 2021))
           ​​ Beware – this​​ conflict has escalated

 

Credit Suisse – Monitor (Updated 18 March 2023, Added: 9 Oct 2022)
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Possible merger with USB due to CS’s deposit withdrawals & stock slide.
           Possible bankruptcy due to margin calls 

 

 

US vs China–​​ Monitor Trade war
Pay attention to any escalation 

 

 

China- Evergrande issue  (Updated: 26 Aug 21)
– Monitor as it could impact China’s banking system
– Evergrande defaulted on an interest payment to Australia 1st Oct 2021


Israel & Iran & Gaza – Monitor – Conflict Escalation & Possible Nuclear Arsenal (Update: 22 Aug 21)


Goldman Sachs Analysis – Be prudent about the analysis re US​​ economy
(22 Aug 2021)


Afghanistan – Unfolding Situation (Updated: 22 Aug 21)


 

 

 

 

​​ 

​​ Important Items

    – Impact: Medium Term Impact

 

 

 

US Dollar losing primacy as Reserve Currency  (Added:  23 March 2022)
   Russia demanding Roubles or Yuan​​ instead of USD for payments.
https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1146816-the-us-dollars-global-standing-as-the-top
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/putin-says-russia-will-start-selling-gas-unfriendly-countries-roubles-2022-03-23/

 


Banks under Scrutiny by ECB  ​​ ​​​​ – (Added:  4th December 2022)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor for limited credit causing financial problems​​ 
 ​​​​ ​​ Effects Deutsche Bank & BNP Paribas

US-Iran Tension Escalation

China/Taiwan – Monitor for possible aggression
as per Chinese general saying military action is​​ considered.

 

EU – Poland – Monitor for possible Issues (Updated: 9 Oct 2021)
   after Poland Constitutional Court decision. PolExit?

European Union Dissolving? Monitor the EU for
interstate difficulties exacerbated by the Covid19 epidemic
via EU Council meeting relationships degrading
– also monitor Germany’s Constitutional Court Ruling
for future implications – re EURO viability, EU partnerships,
& possible end of EU? More info here: www.cnbc.com/


China/Hong Kong – Monitor

EU – Germany’s political situation is not settled
Additional EU Entrants possible?

Syria – Could disrupt in the markets

Libya – Geopolitical/Military escalation could affect Oil Prices

ECB – Monitor statements for weakening impacts
ECB outlook is becoming more pessimistic re EU Economy
Monitor any action taken if/when QE ceases at Year End.

 

 

 

 

​​ Ongoing Items

    – Impact: Very Long Term Repercussions

 

 

 

Italy – Monitor (Updated: 17 July 2022, -​​ 14 Feb 2021)
Draghi quits as PM, could still impact EU
– Monitor – Budget &​​ Banking System
– Monitor – Possible EU Penalty & alternate currency

OPEC – Monitor (Updated: 07 July 2023) 
 – Unexpectedly dropped the price​​ 
 – considering dropping USD as denomination currency
 – Influence of terrorism on production has risen.

 

German Bank (WireCard) Bankrupted – Monitor for
possible future ramifications for stability
– eg domino effect a la Lehman Brothers.

 

Karlsruhe German Constitutional Court (Updated: 9 May 21)
Monitor: Decision re ECB PEPP (QE)
Could be revoked causing major impact on the German economy

 

China vs India vs Pakistan– Monitor conflicts along border.

 

 

 

 

Archive - 4th June 2023

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MAX NewsWatch List

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4th​​ June 2023

 


Market Open Times​​ (NY Time): 
US 8am ​​ –  Tokyo ?pm  –  Frankfurt 2am ​​ – ​​ London 3am
Be careful when ​​ Daylight ​​ Saving Changes are in play

 

All Times are in New York Times

 

Impact

Date

Time

Currency

News Event

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Sun Jun 4

All Day

All

OPEC-JMMC Meetings

 

Holiday

Sun Jun 4

All Day

NZD

Bank Holiday

 

Monitor

Sun Jun 4

9:00 p.m.

AUD

MI Inflation Gauge m/m

 

Monitor

Sun Jun 4

9:45 p.m.

CNY

Caixin Services PMI

 

.

 

 

 

 

 

All TFs

Mon Jun 5

2:30 a.m.

CHF

CPI m/m

 

Monitor

Mon Jun 5

9:00 a.m.

EUR

ECB President Lagarde Speaks

 

Monitor

Mon Jun 5

10:00 a.m.

USD

ISM Services PMI

 

All TFs

Mon Jun 5

9:30 p.m.

AUD

Current Account

 

Monitor

Mon Jun 5

11:35 p.m.

JPY

30-y​​ Bond Auction

 

.

 

 

 

 

 

Hi Impact

Tue Jun 6

12:30 a.m.

AUD

Cash Rate

 

Hi Impact

Tue Jun 6

12:30 a.m.

AUD

RBA Rate Statement

 

Under H4

Tue Jun 6

4:30 a.m.

GBP

Construction PMI

 

Monitor

Tue Jun 6

Tentative

GBP

30-y Bond Auction

 

All TFs

Tue Jun 6

Tentative

NZD

GDT Price Index

 

All TFs

Tue Jun 6

9:30 p.m.

AUD

GDP q/q

 

Monitor

Tue Jun 6

Tentative

CNY

Trade Balance

 

Monitor

Tue Jun 6

Tentative

CNY

USD-Denominated Trade Balance

 

.

 

 

 

 

 

Under H4

Wed Jun 7

2:00 a.m.

GBP

Halifax HPI m/m

 

All TFs

Wed Jun 7

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Trade Balance

 

All TFs

Wed Jun 7

8:30 a.m.

USD

Trade Balance

 

Hi Impact

Wed Jun 7

10:00 a.m.

CAD

BOC Rate Statement

 

Hi Impact

Wed Jun 7

10:00 a.m.

CAD

Overnight Rate

 

Monitor

Wed Jun 7

10:30 a.m.

USD

Crude Oil​​ Inventories

 

All TFs

Wed Jun 7

7:50 p.m.

JPY

Current Account

 

Monitor

Wed Jun 7

7:50 p.m.

JPY

Final GDP Price Index y/y

 

Monitor

Wed Jun 7

7:50 p.m.

JPY

Final GDP q/q

 

All TFs

Wed Jun 7

9:30 p.m.

AUD

Trade Balance

 

.

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Thu Jun 8

1:00​​ a.m.

JPY

Economy Watchers Sentiment

 

Monitor

Thu Jun 8

8:30 a.m.

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

Monitor

Thu Jun 8

10:30 a.m.

USD

Natural Gas Storage

 

Monitor

Thu Jun 8

9:30 p.m.

CNY

CPI y/y

 

Monitor

Thu Jun 8

9:30 p.m.

CNY

PPI y/y

 

.

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Fri​​ Jun 9

9th-15th

CNY

New Loans

 

Monitor

Fri Jun 9

9th-15th

CNY

M2 Money Supply y/y

 

Under H4

Fri Jun 9

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Employment Change

 

Under H4

Fri Jun 9

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Unemployment Rate

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

n.a.

Sat Jun 10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


“Top Pairs” Lists


4th​​ June 2023​​ 

 

The Top Pairs below are ones that have moved the most in the past 4 weeks.
They are listed in $ order: largest $ to smallest $ movers.

Pick the “low-hanging fruit” i.e. pairs that have moved the​​ most,​​ 
as they are more likely to move this week.

 

Last week

Pair

Avg Daily​​ 
Pip Range

Avg Daily
 ​​​​ $ Range ​​ 

 

1

GBPNZD

155

939

Suggested

Best Pairs

2

GBPJPY

131

933

3

GBPUSD

90

900

4

EURNZD

139

843

5

USDJPY

115

821

6

GBPAUD

122

809

7

CHFJPY

109

778

8

EURAUD

111

732

9

EURJPY

102

732

10

GBPCHF

63

689

11

USDCHF

62

680

 

12

EURUSD

67

667

Less stressful?​​ 

13

AUDJPY

92

659

Not as profitable as the

14

NZDUSD

65

651

“Best Pairs”

15

EURCAD

87

648

but possibly easier​​ 

16

CADJPY

90

642

to trade.

17

NZDJPY

89

638

 

 

18

GBPCAD

85

631

 

19

AUDUSD

63

629

 

20

USDCAD

76

566

 

21

NZDCHF

47

520

 

22

EURGBP

41

509

Poorer performers:

23

NZDCAD

67

498

Much less volatility &

24

CADCHF

45

496

likely less profit from

25

AUDCHF

43

477

these pairs based on

26

AUDCAD

56

413

their past performance

27

EURCHF

37

409

 

28

AUDNZD

60

364

 

#E5F8FF

 

 

 

Short List of Each Day’s Top Pairs

Use these suggested pairs to help limit the pairs you monitor each day.
These pairs use the News​​ Events to help narrow the selection.
MAX Courses will teach you how to make this table for yourself.

Pairs at the top have more important News Events (e.g. Hi Impact) than lower pairs.

 

 

Day

Mon​​ 05

Tues​​ 06

Wed​​ 07

Thur 08

Fri​​ 09

 

 

1st​​ Choices

CHFJPY or GBPCHF

GBPAUD or EURAUD

GBPNZD, ​​ GBPAUD or GBPJPY

GBPJPY or USDJPY

GBPNZD or GBPJPY

GBPNZD or GBPJPY

GBPNZD or GBPJPY

GBPUSD or EURNZD

GBPAUD or CHFJPY

GBPUSD or EURNZD

 

2nd Choices

EURNZD or USDJPY

GBPUSD or GBPCHF

EURAUD,​​ GBPCHF or CADJPY

EURAUD or EURJPY

USDJPY or GBPAUD

 

 

 

 

 

Smooth Movers


These pairs might be less volatile & easier to trade.

 

 

 

Forex Pairs


If you are uncomfortable with the faster more volatile pairs above, you could consider​​ monitoring/trading these ones instead.


Less money, but possibly less volatility & stress.

 

 

Indices


Consider trading these indices, too.
Be careful, take your time & make certain you know how they move. They use points & fractions of points.
Some brokers​​ allow trading the Indices by CFDs, instead of Futures.​​ 
Check with your broker for more info.

 

  • EURUSD

  • AUDJPY

  • NZDUSD

  • EURCAD

  • CADJPY

  • DAX

  • DOW Jones

  • NASDAQ

  • S&P 500

  • FTS100

  • NK225

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Longer Term Issues​​ 

 
4th​​ June​​ 2023


Last modified ​​ – ​​ 21st​​ May 2023​​ –​​ (US Debt Ceiling)

 

 

​​ 

​​ Critical Items

    – Impact: Possible Immediate Impact

 

 

US – Debt Ceiling Shenanigans ​​ ​​ (Added:  21st​​ May ​​ 2023)
–​​ Once again . . .

 

 

All Countries– Inflation ​​ ​​ (Added:  30th​​ April 2023)
–​​ Closely monitor the Central Banks (Fed & others) for​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Recession mitigation & Interest Rate Changes.

 

Silicon Valley Bank collapse​​ + contagion?
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Updated 18 March 2023,Added:  11​​ March 2023)

 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor: Still ongoing impacts in US & includes the global banking system.
SVB, Silvergate, Signature, Credit Suisse & now First Republic
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_banking_crisis​​ 

 

All Countries– Covid19 – Corona Virus
– Monitor for business changes/closures as lockdowns start to expire.

 

 

USSR/Ukraine/USA – Monitor (Updated: 18th Sept 2022,24 Feb 2022 (from Feb 2021))
           ​​ Beware – this​​ conflict has escalated

 

Credit Suisse – Monitor (Updated 18 March 2023, Added: 9 Oct 2022)
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Possible merger with USB due to CS’s deposit withdrawals & stock slide.
           Possible bankruptcy due to margin calls 

 

 

US vs China–​​ Monitor Trade war
Pay attention to any escalation 

 

 

China- Evergrande issue  (Updated: 26 Aug 21)
– Monitor as it could impact China’s banking system
– Evergrande defaulted on an interest payment to Australia 1st Oct 2021


Israel & Iran & Gaza – Monitor – Conflict Escalation & Possible Nuclear Arsenal (Update: 22 Aug 21)


Goldman Sachs Analysis – Be prudent about the analysis re US​​ economy
(22 Aug 2021)


Afghanistan – Unfolding Situation (Updated: 22 Aug 21)


 

 

 

 

​​ 

​​ Important Items

    – Impact: Medium Term Impact

 

 

 

US Dollar losing primacy as Reserve Currency  (Added:  23 March 2022)
   Russia demanding Roubles or Yuan​​ instead of USD for payments.
https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1146816-the-us-dollars-global-standing-as-the-top
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/putin-says-russia-will-start-selling-gas-unfriendly-countries-roubles-2022-03-23/

 


Banks under Scrutiny by ECB  ​​ ​​​​ – (Added:  4th December 2022)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor for limited credit causing financial problems​​ 
 ​​​​ ​​ Effects Deutsche Bank & BNP Paribas

US-Iran Tension Escalation

China/Taiwan – Monitor for possible aggression
as per Chinese general saying military action is​​ considered.

 

EU – Poland – Monitor for possible Issues (Updated: 9 Oct 2021)
   after Poland Constitutional Court decision. PolExit?

European Union Dissolving? Monitor the EU for
interstate difficulties exacerbated by the Covid19 epidemic
via EU Council meeting relationships degrading
– also monitor Germany’s Constitutional Court Ruling
for future implications – re EURO viability, EU partnerships,
& possible end of EU? More info here: www.cnbc.com/


China/Hong Kong – Monitor

EU – Germany’s political situation is not settled
Additional EU Entrants possible?

Syria – Could disrupt in the markets

Libya – Geopolitical/Military escalation could affect Oil Prices

ECB – Monitor statements for weakening impacts
ECB outlook is becoming more pessimistic re EU Economy
Monitor any action taken if/when QE ceases at Year End.

 

 

 

 

​​ Ongoing Items

    – Impact: Very Long Term Repercussions

 

 

 

Italy – Monitor (Updated: 17 July 2022, -​​ 14 Feb 2021)
Draghi quits as PM, could still impact EU
– Monitor – Budget &​​ Banking System
– Monitor – Possible EU Penalty & alternate currency

OPEC – Monitor (Updated: 07 July 2023) 
 – Unexpectedly dropped the price​​ 
 – considering dropping USD as denomination currency
 – Influence of terrorism on production has risen.

 

German​​ Bank (WireCard) Bankrupted – Monitor for
possible future ramifications for stability
– eg domino effect a la Lehman Brothers.

 

Karlsruhe German Constitutional Court (Updated: 9 May 21)
Monitor: Decision re ECB PEPP (QE)
Could be revoked causing major impact on the German economy

 

China vs India vs Pakistan– Monitor conflicts along border.

 

 

 

 

Archive - 28th May 2023

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MAX NewsWatch List

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

28th​​ May 2023

 


Market Open Times​​ (NY Time): 
US 8am ​​ –  Tokyo ?pm  –  Frankfurt 2am ​​ – ​​ London 3am
Be careful when ​​ Daylight ​​ Saving Changes are in play

 

All Times are in New York Times

 

Impact

Date

Time

Currency

News Event

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NA 

Sun May 28

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Holiday

Mon May 29

All Day

CHF

Bank Holiday

 

Holiday

Mon May 29

All Day

GBP

Bank Holiday

 

Holiday

Mon May 29

All Day

EUR

French Bank Holiday

 

Holiday

Mon May 29

All Day

EUR

German Bank Holiday

 

Holiday

Mon May 29

All Day

USD

Bank Holiday

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

All TFs

Tue May 30

3:00 a.m.

CHF

GDP q/q

 

Monitor

Tue May 30

3:00 a.m.

CHF

KOF Economic Barometer

 

All TFs

Tue May 30

4:00 a.m.

EUR

M3 Money Supply y/y

 

Monitor

Tue May 30

Tentative

EUR

Italian 10-y Bond Auction

 

All TFs

Tue May 30

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Current Account

 

All TFs

Tue May 30

10:00 a.m.

USD

CB Consumer Confidence

 

Monitor

Tue May 30

7:00 p.m.

AUD

RBA Gov Lowe Speaks

 

Monitor

Tue May 30

9:00 p.m.

NZD

ANZ​​ Business Confidence

 

Monitor

Tue May 30

9:30 p.m.

CNY

Manufacturing PMI

 

Monitor

Tue May 30

9:30 p.m.

CNY

Non-Manufacturing PMI

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Wed May 31

1:00 a.m.

JPY

Consumer Confidence

 

Monitor

Wed May 31

All Day

EUR

German Prelim CPI m/m

 

Monitor

Wed May 31

4:00 a.m.

CHF

Credit Suisse Economic Expectations

 

Monitor

Wed May 31

4:00 a.m.

EUR

ECB Financial Stability Review

 

All TFs

Wed May 31

8:30 a.m.

CAD

GDP m/m

 

Under H4

Wed May 31

9:45 a.m.

USD

Chicago PMI

 

Monitor

Wed May 31

2:00​​ p.m.

USD

Beige Book

 

Monitor

Wed May 31

9:30 p.m.

AUD

Retail Sales m/m

 

Monitor

Wed May 31

9:45 p.m.

CNY

Caixin Manufacturing PMI

 

Monitor

Wed May 31

11:35 p.m.

JPY

10-y Bond Auction

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Under H4

Thu Jun 1

2:00 a.m.

GBP

Nationwide HPI m/m

 

All​​ TFs

Thu Jun 1

Tentative

CHF

Trade Balance

 

Monitor

Thu Jun 1

2:30 a.m.

AUD

Commodity Prices y/y

 

Monitor

Thu Jun 1

5:00 a.m.

EUR

CPI Flash Estimate y/y

 

Monitor

Thu Jun 1

5:00 a.m.

EUR

Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y

 

Monitor

Thu Jun 1

5:00 a.m.

EUR

Unemployment Rate

 

Monitor

Thu Jun 1

Tentative

EUR

Spanish 10-y Bond Auction

 

Monitor

Thu Jun 1

Tentative

EUR

French 10-y Bond Auction

 

Monitor

Thu Jun 1

7:30 a.m.

EUR

ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

 

Under H4

Thu Jun 1

8:15 a.m.

USD

ADP​​ Non-Farm Employment Change

 

Monitor

Thu Jun 1

8:30 a.m.

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

Under H4

Thu Jun 1

9:30 a.m.

CAD

Manufacturing PMI

 

Monitor

Thu Jun 1

10:00 a.m.

USD

ISM Manufacturing PMI

 

Monitor

Thu Jun 1

10:00 a.m.

USD

ISM Manufacturing Prices

 

Monitor

Thu Jun 1

10:30 a.m.

USD

Natural Gas Storage

 

Monitor

Thu Jun 1

11:00 a.m.

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Holiday

Fri Jun 2

All Day

EUR

Italian Bank Holiday

 

Hi Impact

Fri Jun 2

8:30 a.m.

USD

Average Hourly Earnings m/m

 

Hi Impact

Fri Jun 2

8:30 a.m.

USD

Non-Farm Employment Change

 

Hi Impact

Fri Jun 2

8:30 a.m.

USD

Unemployment Rate

 

Hi Impact

Fri Jun 2

8:32 a.m.

USD

NFP Revision

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NA

Sat Jun 3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


“Top Pairs” Lists


28th​​ May 2023​​ 

 

The Top Pairs below are ones that have moved the most in the past 4 weeks.
They are listed in $ order: largest $ to smallest $ movers.

Pick the “low-hanging fruit” i.e. pairs that have moved the​​ most,​​ 
as they are more likely to move this week.

 

Last week

Pair

Avg Daily​​ 
Pip Range

Avg Daily
 ​​​​ $ Range ​​ 

 

1

GBPJPY

145

1032

Suggested

Best Pairs

2

GBPNZD

170

1028

3

EURNZD

153

926

4

GBPUSD

87

867

5

USDJPY

120

853

6

GBPAUD

128

835

7

EURAUD

126

824

8

CHFJPY

115

818

9

EURJPY

114

808

10

USDCHF

68

750

11

CADJPY

103

733

 

12

EURCAD

100

731

Less stressful?​​ 

13

GBPCHF

65

719

Not as profitable as the

14

AUDJPY

101

716

“Best Pairs”

15

GBPCAD

93

683

but possibly easier​​ 

16

EURUSD

68

679

to trade.

17

NZDJPY

94

671

 

 

18

NZDUSD

67

667

 

19

AUDUSD

64

639

 

20

USDCAD

83

607

 

21

NZDCHF

53

585

 

22

CADCHF

52

577

Poorer performers:

23

AUDCHF

51

566

Much less volatility &

24

NZDCAD

75

547

likely less profit from

25

EURGBP

43

528

these pairs based on

26

EURCHF

41

456

their past performance

27

AUDCAD

60

439

 

28

AUDNZD

68

409

 

#E5F8FF

 

 

 

Short List of Each Day’s Top Pairs

Use these suggested pairs to help limit the pairs you monitor each day.
These pairs use the News​​ Events to help narrow the selection.
MAX Courses will teach you how to make this table for yourself.

Pairs at the top have more important News Events (e.g. Hi Impact) than lower pairs.

 

 

Day

Mon 29

Tues 30

Wed 31

Thurs June 1st

Friday 2

 

 

1st​​ Choices

GBPJPY or GBPNZD

USDCHF or EURNZD​​ 

GBPNZD or EURNZD

GBPUSD or USDCHF

GBPUSD or USDJPY

EURNZD or GBPUSD

GBPUSD or USDJPY

GBPUSD or USDJPY

GBPNZD or GBPJPY

USDCHF or GBPJPY​​ 

 

2nd Choices

USDJPY or GBPAUD

EURAUD, CHFJPY, CADJPY or EURJPY

EURAUD, EURJPY, USDCHF or CADJPY

USDJPY, GBPAUD, CHFJPY or CADJPY

GBPNZD, EURNZD or GBPAUD

 

 

 

 

 

Smooth Movers


These pairs​​ might be less volatile & easier to trade.

 

 

 

Forex Pairs


If you are uncomfortable with the faster more volatile pairs​​ above, you could consider monitoring/trading these ones instead.


Less money, but possibly less volatility & stress.

 

 

Indices


Consider trading these indices, too.
Be careful, take your time & make certain you know how they move. They use points & fractions of points.
Some brokers allow trading the Indices by CFDs, instead of Futures.​​ 
Check with your broker for more info.

 

  • EURCAD

  • GBPCHF

  • AUDJPY

  • GBPCAD

  • EURUSD

  • DAX

  • DOW Jones

  • NASDAQ

  • S&P 500

  • FTS100

  • NK225

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Longer Term Issues​​ 

 
28th​​ May 2023


Last modified ​​ – ​​ 21st​​ May 2023​​ –​​ (US Debt Ceiling)

 

 

​​ 

​​ Critical Items

    – Impact: Possible Immediate Impact

 

 

US – Debt Ceiling Shenanigans ​​ ​​ (Added:  21st​​ May ​​ 2023)
–​​ Once again . . .

 

 

All Countries– Inflation ​​ ​​ (Added:  30th​​ April 2023)
–​​ Closely monitor the Central Banks (Fed & others) for​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Recession mitigation & Interest Rate Changes.

 

Silicon Valley Bank collapse​​ + contagion?
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Updated 18 March 2023,Added:  11​​ March 2023)

 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor: Still ongoing impacts in US & includes the global banking system.
SVB, Silvergate, Signature, Credit Suisse & now First Republic
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_banking_crisis​​ 

 

All Countries– Covid19 – Corona Virus
– Monitor for business changes/closures as lockdowns start to expire.

 

 

USSR/Ukraine/USA – Monitor (Updated: 18th Sept 2022,24 Feb 2022 (from Feb 2021))
           ​​ Beware – this​​ conflict has escalated

 

Credit Suisse – Monitor (Updated 18 March 2023, Added: 9 Oct 2022)
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Possible merger with USB due to CS’s deposit withdrawals & stock slide.
           Possible bankruptcy due to margin calls 

 

 

US vs China–​​ Monitor Trade war
Pay attention to any escalation 

 

 

China- Evergrande issue  (Updated: 26 Aug 21)
– Monitor as it could impact China’s banking system
– Evergrande defaulted on an interest payment to Australia 1st Oct 2021


Israel & Iran & Gaza – Monitor – Conflict Escalation & Possible Nuclear Arsenal (Update: 22 Aug 21)


Goldman Sachs Analysis – Be prudent about the analysis re US​​ economy
(22 Aug 2021)


Afghanistan – Unfolding Situation (Updated: 22 Aug 21)


 

 

 

 

​​ 

​​ Important Items

    – Impact: Medium Term Impact

 

 

 

US Dollar losing primacy as Reserve Currency  (Added:  23 March 2022)
   Russia demanding Roubles or Yuan​​ instead of USD for payments.
https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1146816-the-us-dollars-global-standing-as-the-top
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/putin-says-russia-will-start-selling-gas-unfriendly-countries-roubles-2022-03-23/

 


Banks under Scrutiny by ECB  ​​ ​​​​ – (Added:  4th December 2022)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor for limited credit causing financial problems​​ 
 ​​​​ ​​ Effects Deutsche Bank & BNP Paribas

US-Iran Tension Escalation

China/Taiwan – Monitor for possible aggression
as per Chinese general saying military action is​​ considered.

 

EU – Poland – Monitor for possible Issues (Updated: 9 Oct 2021)
   after Poland Constitutional Court decision. PolExit?

European Union Dissolving? Monitor the EU for
interstate difficulties exacerbated by the Covid19 epidemic
via EU Council meeting relationships degrading
– also monitor Germany’s Constitutional Court Ruling
for future implications – re EURO viability, EU partnerships,
& possible end of EU? More info here: www.cnbc.com/


China/Hong Kong – Monitor

EU – Germany’s political situation is not settled
Additional EU Entrants possible?

Syria – Could disrupt in the markets

Libya – Geopolitical/Military escalation could affect Oil Prices

ECB – Monitor statements for weakening impacts
ECB outlook is becoming more pessimistic re EU Economy
Monitor any action taken if/when QE ceases at Year End.

 

 

 

 

​​ Ongoing Items

    – Impact: Very Long Term Repercussions

 

 

 

Italy – Monitor (Updated: 17 July 2022, -​​ 14 Feb 2021)
Draghi quits as PM, could still impact EU
– Monitor – Budget &​​ Banking System
– Monitor – Possible EU Penalty & alternate currency

OPEC – Monitor (Updated: 07 July 2023) 
 – Unexpectedly dropped the price​​ 
 – considering dropping USD as denomination currency
 – Influence of terrorism on production has risen.

 

German Bank (WireCard) Bankrupted – Monitor for
possible future ramifications for stability
– eg domino effect a la Lehman Brothers.

 

Karlsruhe German Constitutional Court (Updated: 9 May 21)
Monitor: Decision re ECB PEPP (QE)
Could be revoked causing major impact on the German economy

 

China vs India vs Pakistan– Monitor conflicts along border.

 

 

 

 

Archive - 21st May 2023

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MAX NewsWatch List

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

21st​​ May 2023

 


Market Open Times​​ (NY Time): 
US 8am ​​ –  Tokyo ?pm  –  Frankfurt 2am ​​ – ​​ London 3am
Be careful when ​​ Daylight ​​ Saving Changes are in play

 

All Times are in New York Times

 

Impact

Date

Time

Currency

News Event

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NA

Sun May 21

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Holiday

Mon May 22

All Day

CAD

Bank Holiday

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Tue May 23

1:00 a.m.

JPY

BOJ Core CPI y/y

 

All TFs

Tue May 23

Tentative

CHF

Trade Balance

 

Monitor

Tue May 23

4:00​​ a.m.

EUR

Flash Manufacturing PMI

 

Monitor

Tue May 23

4:00 a.m.

EUR

Flash Services PMI

 

All TFs

Tue May 23

4:00 a.m.

EUR

Current Account

 

Monitor

Tue May 23

9:45 a.m.

USD

Flash Manufacturing PMI

 

Monitor

Tue May 23

9:45 a.m.

USD

Flash Services PMI

 

Monitor

Tue May 23

10:00 a.m.

USD

New Home Sales

 

Under H4

Tue May 23

6:45 p.m.

NZD

Retail Sales q/q

 

Under H4

Tue May 23

6:45 p.m.

NZD

Core Retail Sales q/q

 

Monitor

Tue May 23

8:30 p.m.

AUD

MI Leading Index m/m

 

Hi Impact

Tue May 23

10:00 p.m.

NZD

Official Cash Rate

 

Hi Impact

Tue May 23

10:00 p.m.

NZD

RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement

 

Hi Impact

Tue May 23

10:00 p.m.

NZD

RBNZ Rate Statement

 

Hi Impact

Tue May 23

11:00 p.m.

NZD

RBNZ Press Conference

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Wed May 24

2:00 a.m.

GBP

CPI​​ y/y

 

Monitor

Wed May 24

2:00 a.m.

GBP

Core CPI y/y

 

Monitor

Wed May 24

4:00 a.m.

EUR

German ifo Business Climate

 

Monitor

Wed May 24

Tentative

EUR

German Buba Monthly Report

 

Monitor

Wed May 24

Tentative

GBP

10-y Bond Auction

 

Monitor

Wed May 24

10:30 a.m.

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

 

Monitor

Wed May 24

2:00 p.m.

USD

FOMC Meeting Minutes

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Thu May 25

2:00 a.m.

EUR

German GfK Consumer Climate

 

All TFs

Thu May 25

8:30 a.m.

USD

Prelim GDP q/q

 

Monitor

Thu May 25

8:30 a.m.

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

All TFs

Thu May 25

8:30 a.m.

USD

Prelim GDP Price Index q/q

 

Monitor

Thu May 25

10:30 a.m.

USD

Natural Gas Storage

 

Monitor

Thu May 25

7:30 p.m.

JPY

Tokyo Core CPI y/y

 

Monitor

Thu May 25

9:30 p.m.

AUD

Retail Sales m/m

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Under H4

Fri May 26

2:00 a.m.

GBP

Retail Sales m/m

 

All TFs

Fri May 26

8:30 a.m.

USD

Core PCE Price Index m/m

 

Under H4

Fri May 26

8:30 a.m.

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders m/m

 

Under H4

Fri May 26

8:30 a.m.

USD

Durable Goods Orders m/m

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NA

Sat​​ May 27

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


“Top Pairs” Lists


21st​​ May 2023​​ 

 

The Top Pairs below are ones that have moved the most in the past 4 weeks.
They are listed in $ order: largest $ to smallest $ movers.

Pick the “low-hanging fruit” i.e. pairs that have moved the​​ most,​​ 
as they are more likely to move this week.

 

Last week

Pair

Avg Daily​​ 
Pip Range

Avg Daily
 ​​​​ $ Range ​​ 

 

1

GBPJPY

167

1210

Suggested

Best Pairs

2

CHFJPY

136

985

3

EURJPY

135

977

4

GBPNZD

152

951

5

USDJPY

128

927

6

GBPUSD

93

926

7

EURNZD

146

915

8

GBPAUD

137

914

9

EURAUD

133

885

10

CADJPY

117

848

11

USDCHF

72

804

Less stressful?​​ 

12

EURCAD

108

801

Not as profitable as the

13

AUDJPY

109

789

“Best Pairs”

14

EURUSD

79

787

but possibly easier​​ 

15

GBPCHF

68

753

to trade.

16

GBPCAD

98

728

 

17

NZDJPY

96

698

 

 

18

USDCAD

87

644

 

19

AUDUSD

64

642

 

20

CADCHF

56

622

 

21

AUDCHF

55

608

 

22

NZDUSD

60

600

Poorer performers:

23

NZDCHF

50

560

Much less volatility &

24

EURGBP

44

545

likely less profit from

25

NZDCAD

66

492

these pairs based on

26

EURCHF

44

490

their past performance

27

AUDCAD

61

450

 

28

AUDNZD

65

410

 

#E5F8FF

 

 

 

Short List of Each Day’s Top Pairs

Use these suggested pairs to help limit the pairs you monitor each day.
These pairs use the News​​ Events to help narrow the selection.
MAX Courses will teach you how to make this table for yourself.

Pairs at the top have more important News Events (e.g. Hi Impact) than lower pairs.

 

 

Day

Mon 15

Tues 16

Wed 17

Thurs 18

Friday 19

 

 

1st Choices

GBPJPY or CHFJPY

CHFJPY or EURJPY

GBPNZD or EURNZD

USDJPY or GBPUSD

GBPUSD or GBPJPY

EURJPY or GBPNZD

EURNZD or EURAUD

GBPJPY or CHFJPY

GBPJPY or CHFJPY

GBPNZD or USDJPY

 

2nd Choices

USDJPY or GBPUSD

GBPJPY or GBPNZD

EURJPY or​​ USDJPY

EURJPY or GBPNZD

GBPAUD or CHFJPY

 

 

 

 

 

Smooth Movers


Pairs that might be less volatile & easier to trade

 

 

 

Forex Pairs


If you are uncomfortable with the faster more volatile pairs​​ above, you could consider monitoring/trading these ones instead.


Less money, but possibly less volatility & stress.

 

 

Indices


Consider trading these indices, too.
Be careful, take your time & make certain you know how they move. They use points & fractions of points.
Some brokers allow trading the Indices by CFDs, instead of Futures.​​ 
Check with your broker for more info.

 

  • USDCHF

  • EURCAD

  • AUDJPY

  • EURUSD

  • GBPCHF

  • GBPCAD

  • DAX

  • DOW Jones

  • NASDAQ

  • S&P 500

  • FTS100

  • NK225

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Longer Term Issues​​ 

 
21st​​ May 2023


Last modified ​​ – ​​ 21st​​ May 2023​​ –​​ (US​​ Debt Ceiling)

 

 

​​ 

​​ Critical Items

    – Impact: Possible Immediate Impact

 

 

US – Debt Ceiling Shenanigans ​​ ​​ (Added:  21st​​ May ​​ 2023)
–​​ Once again . . .

 

 

All Countries– Inflation ​​ ​​ (Added:  30th​​ April 2023)
–​​ Closely​​ monitor the Central Banks (Fed & others) for​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Recession mitigation & Interest Rate Changes.

 

Silicon Valley Bank collapse​​ + contagion?
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Updated 18 March 2023,Added:  11 March 2023)

 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor: Still ongoing impacts in US & includes the global banking system.
SVB, Silvergate, Signature, Credit Suisse & now First Republic
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_banking_crisis​​ 

 

All Countries– Covid19 – Corona Virus
– Monitor for​​ business changes/closures as lockdowns start to expire.

 

 

USSR/Ukraine/USA – Monitor (Updated: 18th Sept 2022,24 Feb 2022 (from Feb 2021))
           ​​ Beware – this conflict has escalated

 

Credit Suisse – Monitor (Updated 18 March 2023, Added: 9 Oct​​ 2022)
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Possible merger with USB due to CS’s deposit withdrawals & stock slide.
           Possible bankruptcy due to margin calls 

 

 

US vs China– Monitor Trade war
Pay attention to any escalation 

 

 

China- Evergrande issue  (Updated: 26 Aug​​ 21)
– Monitor as it could impact China’s banking system
– Evergrande defaulted on an interest payment to Australia 1st Oct 2021


Israel &​​ Iran & Gaza – Monitor – Conflict Escalation & Possible Nuclear Arsenal (Update: 22 Aug 21)


Goldman Sachs Analysis – Be prudent about the analysis re US economy
(22 Aug 2021)


Afghanistan – Unfolding Situation (Updated: 22 Aug 21)


 

 

 

 

​​ 

​​ Important Items

    – Impact: Medium Term Impact

 

 

 

US Dollar losing primacy as Reserve Currency  (Added:  23 March 2022)
   Russia demanding Roubles or Yuan instead of USD for payments.
https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1146816-the-us-dollars-global-standing-as-the-top
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/putin-says-russia-will-start-selling-gas-unfriendly-countries-roubles-2022-03-23/

 


Banks under Scrutiny by ECB  ​​ ​​​​ – (Added:  4th December 2022)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor for limited credit causing financial problems​​ 
 ​​​​ ​​ Effects Deutsche Bank & BNP Paribas

US-Iran Tension Escalation

China/Taiwan – Monitor for possible aggression
as per Chinese general saying military action is considered.

 

EU – Poland –​​ Monitor for possible Issues (Updated: 9 Oct 2021)
   after Poland Constitutional Court decision. PolExit?

European Union Dissolving? Monitor the EU for
interstate difficulties exacerbated by the Covid19 epidemic
via EU Council meeting relationships degrading
– also monitor Germany’s Constitutional Court Ruling
for future implications – re EURO viability, EU partnerships,
& possible end of EU? More info here: www.cnbc.com/


China/Hong Kong – Monitor

EU – Germany’s political situation is not settled
Additional EU Entrants possible?

Syria – Could disrupt in the markets

Libya – Geopolitical/Military escalation could affect Oil Prices

ECB – Monitor statements for weakening impacts
ECB outlook is becoming more pessimistic re EU Economy
Monitor any action taken if/when QE ceases at Year End.

 

 

 

 

​​ Ongoing Items

    – Impact: Very Long Term Repercussions

 

 

 

Italy – Monitor (Updated: 17 July 2022, -​​ 14 Feb 2021)
Draghi quits as PM, could still impact EU
– Monitor – Budget & Banking System
– Monitor –​​ Possible EU Penalty & alternate currency

OPEC – Monitor (Updated: 07 July 2023) 
 – Unexpectedly dropped the price​​ 
 – considering dropping USD as denomination currency
 – Influence of terrorism on production has risen.

 

German Bank (WireCard) Bankrupted – Monitor for
possible future ramifications for stability
– eg domino effect a la Lehman Brothers.

 

Karlsruhe German Constitutional Court (Updated: 9 May 21)
Monitor: Decision re ECB PEPP (QE)
Could be revoked causing major impact on the German economy

 

China vs India vs Pakistan– Monitor conflicts along border.

 

 

 

 

Archive - 14th May 2023

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MAX NewsWatch List

 

 

 

 

 

14th​​ May 2023


Market Open Times​​ (NY Time): 
US 8am ​​ –  Tokyo ?pm  –  Frankfurt 2am ​​ – ​​ London 3am
Be careful when ​​ Daylight ​​ Saving Changes are in play

All Times are in New York Times

Impact

Date

Time

Currency

News Event

.

 

 

 

 

NA 

Sun May 14

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Mon May 15

2:30 a.m.

CHF

PPI m/m

Monitor

Mon May 15

5:00 a.m.

EUR

EU Economic Forecasts

Under H4

Mon May 15

5:00 a.m.

EUR

Industrial Production m/m

Monitor

Mon May 15

All​​ Day

EUR

Eurogroup Meetings

Monitor

Mon May 15

8:15 a.m.

CAD

Housing Starts

Under H4

Mon May 15

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Wholesale Sales m/m

Monitor

Mon May 15

9:30 p.m.

AUD

Monetary Policy Meeting​​ Minutes

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Tue May 16

2:00 a.m.

GBP

Average Earnings Index 3m/y

Under H4

Tue May 16

5:00 a.m.

EUR

German ZEW Economic Sentiment

All TFs

Tue May 16

5:00 a.m.

EUR

Flash GDP q/q

All TFs

Tue May 16

5:00 a.m.

EUR

Trade Balance

Under H4

Tue​​ May 16

5:00 a.m.

EUR

ZEW Economic Sentiment

Monitor

Tue May 16

All Day

EUR

ECOFIN Meetings

All TFs

Tue May 16

8:30 a.m.

CAD

CPI m/m

All TFs

Tue May 16

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Core CPI m/m

Under H4

Tue May 16

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Manufacturing Sales m/m

Under H4

Tue​​ May 16

8:30 a.m.

USD

Core Retail Sales m/m

Under H4

Tue May 16

8:30 a.m.

USD

Retail Sales m/m

Under H4

Tue May 16

9:15 a.m.

USD

Industrial Production m/m

Monitor

Tue May 16

10:00 a.m.

USD

FOMC Member Barr Speaks

All TFs

Tue May 16

Tentative

NZD

GDT​​ Price Index

Monitor

Tue May 16

7:50 p.m.

JPY

Prelim GDP Price Index y/y

Monitor

Tue May 16

7:50 p.m.

JPY

Prelim GDP q/q

Monitor

Tue May 16

8:30 p.m.

AUD

MI Leading Index m/m

 

 

 

 

 

All TFs

Wed May 17

2:00 a.m.

CHF

Trade Balance

Monitor

Wed May 17

5:00 a.m.

EUR

Final CPI y/y

Monitor

Wed May 17

5:00 a.m.

EUR

Final Core CPI y/y

Monitor

Wed May 17

Tentative

EUR

German 10-y Bond Auction

Monitor

Wed May 17

8:30 a.m.

USD

Housing Starts

Monitor

Wed May 17

10:30 a.m.

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

All​​ TFs

Wed May 17

7:50 p.m.

JPY

Trade Balance

Under H4

Wed May 17

9:30 p.m.

AUD

Employment Change

Under H4

Wed May 17

9:30 p.m.

AUD

Unemployment Rate

Monitor

Wed May 17

10:00 p.m.

NZD

Annual Budget Release

 

 

 

 

 

Holiday

Thu May 18

All Day

CHF

Bank​​ Holiday

Holiday

Thu May 18

All Day

EUR

French Bank Holiday

Holiday

Thu May 18

All Day

EUR

German Bank Holiday

Monitor

Thu May 18

5:15 a.m.

GBP

Monetary Policy Report Hearings

Monitor

Thu May 18

Tentative

GBP

BOE Quarterly Bulletin

Monitor

Thu May 18

8:30 a.m.

USD

Unemployment Claims

Under H4

Thu May 18

8:30 a.m.

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

Monitor

Thu May 18

9:30 a.m.

USD

FOMC Member Barr Speaks

Monitor

Thu May 18

10:00 a.m.

CAD

BOC Financial System Review

Monitor

Thu May 18

10:00 a.m.

USD

Existing Home Sales

Monitor

Thu May 18

10:30 a.m.

USD

Natural Gas Storage

All TFs

Thu May 18

6:45 p.m.

NZD

Trade Balance

Monitor

Thu May 18

7:01 p.m.

GBP

GfK Consumer Confidence

Monitor

Thu May 18

7:30 p.m.

JPY

National Core CPI y/y

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Fri May 19

4:00 a.m.

EUR

ECB Economic Bulletin

Under H4

Fri May 19

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Core Retail Sales m/m

Under H4

Fri May 19

 

CAD

Retail Sales m/m

 

 

 

 

 

NA 

Sat May 20

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


“Top Pairs” Lists


14th​​ May 2023​​ 

 

The Top Pairs below are ones that have moved the most in the past 4 weeks.
They are listed in $ order: largest $ to smallest $ movers.

Pick the “low-hanging fruit” i.e. pairs that have moved the​​ most,​​ 
as they are more likely to move this week.

 

Last week

Pair

Avg Daily​​ 
Pip Range

Avg Daily
 ​​​​ $ Range ​​ 

 

1

GBPJPY

160

1179

Suggested

Best Pairs

2

EURJPY

133

982

3

CHFJPY

132

972

4

GBPNZD

155

958

5

GBPAUD

144

956

6

USDJPY

123

909

7

EURNZD

146

905

8

GBPUSD

90

896

9

EURAUD

134

889

10

EURUSD

80

796

11

CADJPY

107

789

Less stressful?​​ 

12

GBPCHF

69

763

Not as profitable as the

13

USDCHF

68

761

“Best Pairs”

14

EURCAD

103

758

but possibly easier​​ 

15

AUDJPY

101

745

to trade.

16

GBPCAD

100

736

 

17

NZDJPY

88

652

 

 

18

AUDUSD

64

636

 

19

USDCAD

82

607

 

20

AUDCHF

54

597

 

21

NZDUSD

59

594

 

22

CADCHF

52

582

Poorer performers:

23

NZDCHF

50

557

Much less volatility &

24

EURGBP

44

542

likely less profit from

25

EURCHF

44

491

these pairs based on

26

NZDCAD

63

467

their past performance

27

AUDCAD

61

450

 

28

AUDNZD

65

405

 

#E5F8FF

 

 

 

Short List of Each Day’s Top Pairs

Use these suggested pairs to help limit the pairs you monitor each day.
These pairs use the News​​ Events to help narrow the selection.
MAX Courses will teach you how to make this table for yourself.

Pairs at the top have more important News Events (e.g. Hi Impact) than lower pairs.

 

 

Day

Mon​​ 15

Tues​​ 16

Wed​​ 17

Thurs​​ 18

Friday​​ 19

 

 

1st Choices

EURJPY​​ 
or​​ 
EURNZD

EURNZD​​ 
or​​ 
EURUSD

CHFJPY​​ 
or​​ 
GBPNZD

USDJPY​​ 
or​​ 
GBPJPY

GBPNZD
or
EURNZD

EURAUD​​ 
or​​ 
EURUSD

EURJPY​​ 
or​​ 
GBPNZD

EURNZD​​ 
or​​ 
GBPJPY

EURJPY
or
CHFJPY

GBPJPY​​ 
or​​ 

EURJPY

 

2nd Choices

GBPJPY, CHFJPY​​ 
or​​ 
CADJPY

USDJPY, GBPUSD​​ 
or​​ 
EURAUD (CADJPY)

EURJPY​​ 
or​​ 
GBPAUD

GBPAUD,
GBPUSD​​ 
or EURAUD

CHFJPY, GBPAUD or CADJPY

 

 

 

 

 

Smooth Movers


Pairs that might be less volatile & easier to trade

 

 

 

Forex Pairs


If you are uncomfortable with the faster more volatile pairs​​ above, you could consider monitoring/trading these ones instead.


Less money, but possibly less volatility & stress.

 

 

Indices


Consider trading these indices, too.
Be careful, take your time & make certain you know how they move. They use points & fractions of points.
Some brokers allow trading the Indices by CFDs, instead of Futures.​​ 
Check with your broker for more info.

 

  • CADJPY

  • GBPCHF

  • USDCHF

  • EURCAD

  • AUDJPY

  • GBPCAD

  • DAX

  • DOW Jones

  • NASDAQ

  • S&P 500

  • FTS100

  • NK225

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Longer Term Issues​​ 

 
14th​​ May 2023


Last modified ​​ – ​​ 7th May 2023​​ –​​ (US Banking Insurance Issues)

 

 

​​ 

​​ Critical Items

    – Impact: Possible Immediate Impact

 

 

 

All Countries– Inflation ​​ ​​ (Added:  30th​​ April 2023)
–​​ Closely​​ monitor the Central Banks (Fed & others) for​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Recession mitigation & Interest Rate Changes.

 

Silicon Valley Bank collapse​​ + contagion?
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Updated 18 March 2023,Added:  11 March 2023)

 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor: Still ongoing impacts in US & includes the global banking system.
SVB, Silvergate, Signature, Credit Suisse & now First Republic
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_banking_crisis​​ 

 

All Countries– Covid19 – Corona Virus
– Monitor for​​ business changes/closures as lockdowns start to expire.

 

 

USSR/Ukraine/USA – Monitor (Updated: 18th Sept 2022,24 Feb 2022 (from Feb 2021))
           ​​ Beware – this conflict has escalated

Credit Suisse – Monitor (Updated 18 March 2023, Added: 9 Oct​​ 2022)
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Possible merger with USB due to CS’s deposit withdrawals & stock slide.
           Possible bankruptcy due to margin calls 

 

 

US vs China– Monitor Trade war
Pay attention to any escalation 

 

 

China- Evergrande issue  (Updated: 26 Aug​​ 21)
– Monitor as it could impact China’s banking system
– Evergrande defaulted on an interest payment to Australia 1st Oct 2021


Israel &​​ Iran & Gaza – Monitor – Conflict Escalation & Possible Nuclear Arsenal (Update: 22 Aug 21)


Goldman Sachs Analysis – Be prudent about the analysis re US economy
(22 Aug 2021)


Afghanistan – Unfolding Situation (Updated: 22 Aug 21)


 

 

 

 

​​ 

​​ Important Items

    – Impact: Medium Term Impact

 

 

 

US Dollar losing primacy as Reserve Currency  (Added:  23 March 2022)
   Russia demanding Roubles or Yuan instead of USD for payments.
https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1146816-the-us-dollars-global-standing-as-the-top
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/putin-says-russia-will-start-selling-gas-unfriendly-countries-roubles-2022-03-23/

 


Banks under Scrutiny by ECB  ​​ ​​​​ – (Added:  4th December 2022)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor for limited credit causing financial problems​​ 
 ​​​​ ​​ Effects Deutsche Bank & BNP Paribas

US-Iran Tension Escalation

China/Taiwan – Monitor for possible aggression
as per Chinese general saying military action is considered.

 

EU – Poland –​​ Monitor for possible Issues (Updated: 9 Oct 2021)
   after Poland Constitutional Court decision. PolExit?

European Union Dissolving? Monitor the EU for
interstate difficulties exacerbated by the Covid19 epidemic
via EU Council meeting relationships degrading
– also monitor Germany’s Constitutional Court Ruling
for future implications – re EURO viability, EU partnerships,
& possible end of EU? More info here: www.cnbc.com/


China/Hong Kong – Monitor

EU – Germany’s political situation is not settled
Additional EU Entrants possible?

Syria – Could disrupt in the markets

Libya – Geopolitical/Military escalation could affect Oil Prices

ECB – Monitor statements for weakening impacts
ECB outlook is becoming more pessimistic re EU Economy
Monitor any action taken if/when QE ceases at Year End.

 

 

 

 

​​ Ongoing Items

    – Impact: Very Long Term Repercussions

 

 

 

Italy – Monitor (Updated: 17 July 2022, -​​ 14 Feb 2021)
Draghi quits as PM, could still impact EU
– Monitor – Budget & Banking System
– Monitor –​​ Possible EU Penalty & alternate currency

OPEC – Monitor (Updated: 07 July 2023) 
 – Unexpectedly dropped the price​​ 
 – considering dropping USD as denomination currency
 – Influence of terrorism on production has risen.

 

German Bank (WireCard) Bankrupted – Monitor for
possible future ramifications for stability
– eg domino effect a la Lehman Brothers.

 

Karlsruhe German Constitutional Court (Updated: 9 May 21)
Monitor: Decision re ECB PEPP (QE)
Could be revoked causing major impact on the German economy

 

China vs India vs Pakistan– Monitor conflicts along border.

 

 

 

 

Archive - 7th May 2023

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MAX NewsWatch List

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

7th​​ May 2023

 

 

Market Open Times​​ (NY Time): 
US 8am – Tokyo ?pm – Frankfurt 2am – London 3am
Be careful – Daylight ​​ Saving Changes are in play

 

 

All Times are in New York Times

 

 

Impact

Date

Time

Currency

News Event

 

.

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Sun May 7

7:50 p.m.

JPY

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

 

Monitor

Sun May 7

9:30 p.m.

AUD

Building Approvals m/m

 

Monitor

Sun May 7

9:30 p.m.

AUD

NAB Business Confidence

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Holiday

Mon May 8

All Day

GBP

Bank Holiday

 

Holiday

Mon May 8

All Day

EUR

French Bank Holiday

 

Monitor

Mon May 8

4:00 p.m.

USD

FOMC Financial Stability Report

 

Monitor

Mon May 8

9:30 p.m.

AUD

Retail Sales m/m

 

Monitor

Mon May 8

Tentative

CNY

Trade Balance

 

Monitor

Mon May 8

Tentative

CNY

USD-Denominated Trade Balance

 

Monitor

Mon May 8

11:35 p.m.

JPY

10-y Bond Auction

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Under H4

Tue May 9

2:00 a.m.

GBP

Halifax HPI m/m

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Wed May 10

2:00 a.m.

EUR

German Final CPI m/m

 

Monitor

Wed May 10

10th-15th

CNY

New Loans

 

Monitor

Wed May 10

10th-15th

CNY

M2 Money Supply y/y

 

Monitor

Wed May 10

Tentative

GBP

10-y Bond Auction

 

Monitor

Wed May 10

Tentative

EUR

German 30-y Bond Auction

 

All TFs

Wed May 10

8:30 a.m.

USD

CPI m/m

 

Monitor

Wed May​​ 10

8:30 a.m.

USD

CPI y/y

 

All TFs

Wed May 10

8:30 a.m.

USD

Core CPI m/m

 

Monitor

Wed May 10

10:30 a.m.

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

 

Monitor

Wed May 10

1:01 p.m.

USD

10-y Bond Auction

 

Monitor

Wed May 10

2:00 p.m.

USD

Federal Budget Balance

 

Monitor

Wed May 10

7:50 p.m.

JPY

BOJ Summary of Opinions

 

All TFs

Wed May 10

7:50 p.m.

JPY

Current Account

 

Monitor

Wed May 10

9:00 p.m.

AUD

MI Inflation Expectations

 

Monitor

Wed May 10

9:30 p.m.

CNY

CPI y/y

 

Monitor

Wed May 10

9:30 p.m.

CNY

PPI​​ y/y

 

Monitor

Wed May 10

11:35 p.m.

JPY

30-y Bond Auction

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Thu May 11

1:00 a.m.

JPY

Economy Watchers Sentiment

 

Hi Impact

Thu May 11

7:00 a.m.

GBP

BOE Monetary Policy Report

 

Hi Impact

Thu May 11

7:00 a.m.

GBP

MPC Official Bank Rate​​ Votes

 

Hi Impact

Thu May 11

7:00 a.m.

GBP

Monetary Policy Summary

 

Hi Impact

Thu May 11

7:00 a.m.

GBP

Official Bank Rate

 

Hi Impact

Thu May 11

7:30 a.m.

GBP

BOE Gov Bailey Speaks

 

Monitor

Thu May 11

8:30 a.m.

USD

Core PPI m/m

 

Monitor

Thu May 11

8:30 a.m.

USD

PPI m/m

 

Monitor

Thu May 11

8:30 a.m.

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

Monitor

Thu May 11

Tentative

GBP

NIESR GDP Estimate

 

Monitor

Thu May 11

10:30 a.m.

USD

Natural Gas Storage

 

Monitor

Thu May 11

1:01 p.m.

USD

30-y Bond Auction

 

Monitor

Thu​​ May 11

11:00 p.m.

NZD

Inflation Expectations q/q

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

All TFs

Fri May 12

2:00 a.m.

GBP

GDP m/m

 

All TFs

Fri May 12

2:00 a.m.

GBP

Prelim GDP q/q

 

Under H4

Fri May 12

2:00 a.m.

GBP

Industrial Production m/m

 

Under H4

Fri May 12

2:00 a.m.

GBP

Manufacturing Production m/m

 

Monitor

Fri May 12

3:00 a.m.

USD

FOMC Member Bowman Speaks

 

Under H4

Fri May 12

10:00 a.m.

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

 

Under H4

Fri May 12

10:00 a.m.

USD

Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations

 

.

 

 

 

 

 

NA

Sat May 13

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


“Top Pairs” Lists


7th​​ May 2023​​ 

 

The Top Pairs below are ones that have moved the most in the past 4 weeks.
They are listed in $ order: largest $ to smallest $ movers.

Pick the “low-hanging fruit” i.e. pairs that have moved the​​ most,​​ 
as they are more likely to move this week.

 

Last week

Pair

Avg Daily​​ 
Pip Range

Avg Daily
 ​​​​ $ Range ​​ 

 

1

GBPJPY

156

1157

Suggested

Best Pairs

2

GBPAUD

150

1010

3

CHFJPY

135

1000

4

GBPNZD

158

995

5

USDJPY

133

987

6

EURJPY

130

966

7

EURNZD

148

933

8

EURAUD

137

924

9

GBPUSD

91

914

10

USDCHF

74

834

11

EURUSD

83

826

Less stressful?​​ 

12

CADJPY

109

810

Not as profitable as the

13

GBPCAD

107

801

“Best Pairs”

14

GBPCHF

70

783

but possibly easier​​ 

15

EURCAD

103

772

to trade.

16

AUDJPY

96

715

 

17

AUDUSD

66

655

 

 

18

NZDJPY

85

630

 

19

AUDCHF

55

622

 

20

NZDUSD

61

615

 

21

CADCHF

55

612

 

22

USDCAD

81

609

Poorer performers:

23

NZDCHF

51

572

Much less volatility &

24

EURGBP

42

524

likely less profit from

25

NZDCAD

68

509

these pairs based on

26

EURCHF

44

499

their past performance

27

AUDCAD

65

488

 

28

AUDNZD

66

414

 

#E5F8FF

 

 

 

Short List of Each Day’s Top Pairs

Use these suggested pairs to help limit the pairs you monitor each day.
These pairs use the News​​ Events to help narrow the selection.
MAX Courses will teach you how to make this table for yourself.

Pairs at the top have more important News Events (e.g. Hi Impact) than lower pairs.

 

 

Day

Mon​​ 08

Tues​​ 09

Wed​​ 10

Thurs​​ 11

Friday​​ 12

 

 

1st Choices

GBPJPY or GBPAUD

GBPJPY or GBPAUD

USDJPY or GBPUSD

GBPJPY or GBPAUD

GBPUSD or GBPJPY

CHFJPY or GBPNZD

GBPNZD or GBPUSD

USDCHF or GBPJPY

GBPNZD or GBPUSD

GBPAUD or GBPNZD

 

2nd Choices

USDJPY, EURJPY or EURNZD

CHFJPY or USDJPY

GBPAUD, CHFJPY or​​ GBPNZD

CHFJPY, USDJPY or EURJPY

USDJPY or USDCHF

 

 

 

 

 

Smooth Movers


Pairs that might be less volatile & easier to trade

 

 

 

Forex Pairs


If you are uncomfortable with the faster more volatile pairs above, you could consider​​ monitoring/trading these ones instead.


Less money, but possibly less volatility & stress.

 

 

Indices


Consider trading these indices, too.
Be careful, take your time & make certain you know how they move. They use points & fractions of points.
Some brokers​​ allow trading the Indices by CFDs, instead of Futures.​​ 
Check with your broker for more info.

 

  • EURUSD

  • CADJPY

  • GBPCAD

  • GBPCHF

  • EURCAD

GBPJPY

  • DAX

  • DOW Jones

  • NASDAQ

  • S&P 500

  • FTS100

  • NK225

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Longer Term Issues​​ 

 
7th​​ May 2023


Last modified ​​ – ​​ 7th​​ May 2023​​ –​​ (US Banking Insurance Issues)

 

 

​​ 

​​ Critical Items

    – Impact: Possible Immediate Impact

 

 

 

All Countries– Inflation ​​ ​​ (Added:  30th​​ April 2023)
–​​ Closely​​ monitor the Central Banks (Fed & others) for​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Recession mitigation & Interest Rate Changes.

 

Silicon Valley Bank collapse​​ + contagion?
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Updated 18 March 2023,Added:  11 March 2023)

 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor: Still​​ ongoing impacts in US &​​ includes the​​ global​​ banking system.
SVB, Silvergate, Signature, Credit Suisse & now First Republic
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_banking_crisis​​ 

 

All Countries– Covid19 – Corona Virus
– Monitor for business changes/closures as lockdowns start to expire.

 

 

USSR/Ukraine/USA – Monitor (Updated: 18th Sept 2022,24 Feb 2022 (from Feb 2021))
           ​​ Beware – this conflict has escalated

Credit Suisse – Monitor (Updated 18 March 2023, Added: 9 Oct 2022)
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Possible merger with USB due to CS’s deposit withdrawals & stock slide.
           Possible bankruptcy due to margin calls 

 

 

US vs China– Monitor Trade war
Pay attention to any escalation 

 

 

China- Evergrande issue  (Updated: 26 Aug 21)
–​​ Monitor as it could impact China’s banking system
– Evergrande defaulted on an interest payment to Australia 1st Oct 2021


Israel &​​ Iran & Gaza – Monitor – Conflict Escalation & Possible Nuclear Arsenal (Update: 22 Aug 21)


Goldman Sachs Analysis – Be prudent about the analysis re US economy
(22 Aug 2021)


Afghanistan – Unfolding Situation (Updated: 22 Aug 21)


 

 

 

 

​​ 

​​ Important Items

    – Impact: Medium Term Impact

 

 

 

US Dollar losing primacy as Reserve Currency  (Added:  23 March 2022)
   Russia demanding Roubles or Yuan instead of USD for payments.
https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1146816-the-us-dollars-global-standing-as-the-top
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/putin-says-russia-will-start-selling-gas-unfriendly-countries-roubles-2022-03-23/

 


Banks under Scrutiny by ECB  ​​ ​​​​ – (Added:  4th December 2022)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor for limited credit causing financial problems​​ 
 ​​​​ ​​ Effects Deutsche Bank & BNP Paribas

US-Iran Tension Escalation

China/Taiwan – Monitor for possible aggression
as per Chinese general saying military action is considered.

 

EU – Poland –​​ Monitor for possible Issues (Updated: 9 Oct 2021)
   after Poland Constitutional Court decision. PolExit?

European Union Dissolving? Monitor the EU for
interstate difficulties exacerbated by the Covid19 epidemic
via EU Council meeting relationships degrading
– also monitor Germany’s Constitutional Court Ruling
for future implications – re EURO viability, EU partnerships,
& possible end of EU? More info here: www.cnbc.com/


China/Hong Kong – Monitor

EU – Germany’s political situation is not settled
Additional EU Entrants possible?

Syria – Could disrupt in the markets

Libya – Geopolitical/Military escalation could affect Oil Prices

ECB – Monitor statements for weakening impacts
ECB outlook is becoming more pessimistic re EU Economy
Monitor any action taken if/when QE ceases at Year End.

 

 

 

 

​​ Ongoing Items

    – Impact: Very Long Term Repercussions

 

 

 

Italy – Monitor (Updated: 17 July 2022, -​​ 14 Feb 2021)
Draghi quits as PM, could still impact EU
– Monitor – Budget & Banking System
– Monitor –​​ Possible EU Penalty & alternate currency

OPEC – Monitor (Updated: 07 July 2023) 
 – Unexpectedly dropped the price​​ 
 – considering dropping USD as denomination currency
 – Influence of terrorism on production has risen.

 

German Bank (WireCard)​​ Bankrupted – Monitor for
possible future ramifications for stability
– eg domino effect a la Lehman Brothers.

 

Karlsruhe German Constitutional Court (Updated: 9 May 21)
Monitor: Decision re ECB PEPP (QE)
Could be revoked causing major impact on the German​​ economy

 

China vs India vs Pakistan– Monitor conflicts along border.

 

 

 

 

Archive - 30th April 2023

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MAX NewsWatch List

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

30th​​ April 2023

 

 

Market Open Times​​ (NY Time): 
US 8am – Tokyo ?pm – Frankfurt 2am – London 3am
Be careful – Daylight ​​ Saving Changes are in play

 

 

All Times are in New York Times

 

 

Impact

Date

Time

Currency

News Event

 

.

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Mon May 1

1:00 a.m.

JPY

Consumer Confidence

 

Holiday

Mon May 1

All Day

CHF

Bank Holiday

 

Monitor

Mon May 1

2:30 a.m.

AUD

Commodity Prices y/y

 

Holiday

Mon May 1

All Day

GBP

Bank Holiday

 

Holiday

Mon May 1

All Day

EUR

French Bank Holiday

 

Holiday

Mon May 1

All Day

EUR

German Bank Holiday

 

Holiday

Mon May 1

All Day

EUR

Italian Bank Holiday

 

Under H4

Mon May 1

9:30 a.m.

CAD

Manufacturing PMI

 

Monitor

Mon May 1

10:00 a.m.

USD

ISM Manufacturing PMI

 

Monitor

Mon May 1

10:00 a.m.

USD

ISM Manufacturing Prices

 

.

 

 

 

 

 

Hi Impact

Tue May 2

12:30 a.m.

AUD

Cash Rate

 

Hi Impact

Tue May 2

12:30 a.m.

AUD

RBA Rate Statement

 

Under H4

Tue May 2

2:00 a.m.

GBP

Nationwide HPI m/m

 

All TFs

Tue May 2

4:00 a.m.

EUR

M3 Money Supply y/y

 

Monitor

Tue May 2

5:00 a.m.

EUR

CPI Flash Estimate y/y

 

Monitor

Tue May 2

5:00 a.m.

EUR

Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y

 

Monitor

Tue May 2

7:20 a.m.

AUD

RBA Gov Lowe Speaks

 

All TFs

Tue May 2

Tentative

NZD

GDT Price Index

 

Monitor

Tue May 2

5:00 p.m.

NZD

RBNZ Financial Stability Report

 

Monitor

Tue May 2

6:45 p.m.

NZD

Employment Change q/q

 

Monitor

Tue May 2

6:45 p.m.

NZD

Unemployment Rate

 

Holiday

Tue May 2

All Day

JPY

Bank Holiday

 

Monitor

Tue May 2

9:30 p.m.

AUD

Retail Sales m/m

 

.

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Wed May 3

12:55 a.m.

AUD

RBA Assist Gov Ellis Speaks

 

Monitor

Wed May 3

5:00 a.m.

EUR

Unemployment Rate

 

Under H4

Wed May 3

8:15 a.m.

USD

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

 

Monitor

Wed May 3

10:00 a.m.

USD

ISM Services PMI

 

Monitor

Wed May 3

10:30 a.m.

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

 

Hi Impact

Wed May 3

2:00 p.m.

USD

FOMC Statement

 

Hi Impact

Wed May 3

2:00 p.m.

USD

Federal Funds Rate

 

Hi Impact

Wed May 3

2:30 p.m.

USD

FOMC Press Conference

 

Holiday

Wed May 3

All Day

JPY

Bank Holiday

 

All TFs

Wed May 3

9:30 p.m.

AUD

Trade Balance

 

Monitor

Wed May 3

9:45 p.m.

CNY

Caixin Manufacturing PMI

 

.

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Thu May 4

Tentative

EUR

French 10-y Bond Auction

 

Hi Impact

Thu May 4

8:15 a.m.

EUR

Main Refinancing Rate

 

Hi Impact

Thu May 4

8:15 a.m.

EUR

Monetary Policy Statement

 

All TFs

Thu May 4

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Trade Balance

 

Monitor

Thu May 4

8:30 a.m.

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

All TFs

Thu May 4

8:30 a.m.

USD

Trade Balance

 

Hi Impact

Thu May 4

8:45 a.m.

EUR

ECB Press Conference

 

Monitor

Thu May 4

10:30 a.m.

USD

Natural Gas Storage

 

Monitor

Thu May 4

12:50 p.m.

CAD

BOC Gov Macklem Speaks

 

Holiday

Thu May 4

All Day

JPY

Bank Holiday

 

Monitor

Thu May 4

9:30 p.m.

AUD

RBA Monetary Policy Statement

 

Monitor

Thu May 4

9:45 p.m.

CNY

Caixin Services PMI

 

.

 

 

 

 

 

All TFs

Fri May 5

2:30 a.m.

CHF

CPI m/m

 

Under H4

Fri May 5

4:30 a.m.

GBP

Construction PMI

 

Under H4

Fri May 5

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Employment Change

 

Under H4

Fri May 5

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Unemployment Rate

 

Hi Impact

Fri May 5

8:30 a.m.

USD

Average Hourly Earnings m/m

 

Hi Impact

Fri May 5

8:30 a.m.

USD

Non-Farm Employment Change

 

Hi Impact

Fri May 5

8:30 a.m.

USD

Unemployment Rate

 

Hi Impact

Fri May 5

8:32 a.m.

USD

NFP Revision

 

Monitor

Fri May 5

Tentative

USD

FOMC Financial Stability Report

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

N.A.

Sat May 6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


“Top Pairs” Lists


30th​​ April 2023​​ 

 

The Top Pairs below are ones that have moved the most in the past 4 weeks.
They are listed in $ order: largest $ to smallest $ movers.

Pick the “low-hanging fruit” i.e. pairs that have moved the​​ most,​​ 
as they are more likely to move this week.

 

Last week

Pair

Avg Daily​​ 
Pip Range

Avg Daily
 ​​​​ $ Range ​​ 

 

1

GBPJPY

153

1119

Suggested

Best Pairs

2

GBPAUD

151

1002

3

GBPNZD

154

950

4

GBPUSD

95

949

5

USDJPY

128

941

6

CHFJPY

128

939

7

EURJPY

128

938

8

EURNZD

150

926

9

EURAUD

135

896

10

EURUSD

82

816

11

USDCHF

69

770

Less stressful?​​ 

12

GBPCHF

67

746

Not as profitable as the

13

GBPCAD

98

723

“Best Pairs”

14

CADJPY

96

706

but possibly easier​​ 

15

AUDUSD

70

698

to trade.

16

AUDJPY

91

669

 

17

NZDUSD

66

655

 

 

18

EURCAD

87

641

 

19

NZDJPY

85

623

 

20

AUDCHF

56

621

 

21

NZDCHF

51

574

 

22

USDCAD

74

546

Poorer performers:

23

CADCHF

45

508

Much less volatility &

24

EURGBP

40

499

likely less profit from

25

AUDCAD

67

497

these pairs based on

26

NZDCAD

66

487

their past performance

27

EURCHF

42

468

 

28

AUDNZD

68

422

 

#E5F8FF

 

 

 

Short List of Each Day’s Top Pairs

Use these suggested pairs to help limit the pairs you monitor each day.
These pairs use the News​​ Events to help narrow the selection.
MAX Courses will teach you how to make this table for yourself.

Pairs at the top have more important News Events (e.g. Hi Impact) than lower pairs.

 

 

Day

Mon​​ 1st​​ May

Tues 2

Wed​​ 3

Thurs​​ 4

Friday​​ 5

 

 

1st Choices

GBPJPY, GBPCAD or GBPAUD

GBPAUD or​​ 
EURAUD

GBPUSD or USDJPY

EURAUD or EURUSD

GBPUSD or USDJPY

GBPNZD or​​ 
GBPUSD

GBPNZD or​​ 
EURNZD

EURUSD
​​ or GBPNZD​​ 

EURNZD or EURJPY

EURUSD or GBPJPY

 

2nd Choices

USDJPY or CHFJPY

GBPJPY, GBPUSD or EURJPY

EURNZD or​​ GBPJPY

GBPCAD, GBPAUD, GBPUSD or USDJPY

GBPAUD, GBPNZD, GBPCAD or CHFJPY

 

 

 

 

 

Smooth Movers


Pairs that might be less volatile & easier to trade

 

 

 

Forex Pairs


If you are uncomfortable with the faster more volatile pairs above, you could​​ consider monitoring/trading these ones instead.


Less money, but possibly less volatility & stress.

 

 

Indices


Consider trading these indices, too.
Be careful, take your time & make certain you know how they move. They use points & fractions of points.
Some brokers allow trading the Indices by CFDs, instead of Futures.​​ 
Check with your broker for more info.

 

  • USDCHF

  • GBPCHF

  • GBPCAD

  • CADJPY

  • AUDUSD

  • DAX

  • DOW Jones

  • NASDAQ

  • S&P 500

  • FTS100

  • NK225

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Longer Term Issues​​ 

 
30th​​ April 2023

Last modified ​​ – ​​ 30th​​ April 2023​​ –​​ (Inflation/Recession)

 

 

​​ 

​​ Critical Items

    – Impact: Possible Immediate Impact

 

 

 

All Countries– Inflation ​​ ​​ (Added:  30th​​ April 2023)
–​​ Closely monitor the Central Banks (Fed & others) for​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Recession mitigation & Interest Rate Changes.

 

 

All Countries– Covid19 – Corona Virus
– Monitor for business​​ changes/closures as lockdowns start to expire.

 

 

USSR/Ukraine/USA – Monitor (Updated: 18th Sept 2022,24 Feb 2022 (from Feb 2021))
   ​​        ​​ Beware – this conflict has escalated

Credit Suisse – Monitor (Updated 18 March 2023, Added: 9 Oct 2022)
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Possible merger with USB due to CS’s deposit withdrawals & stock slide.
           Possible bankruptcy due to margin calls 

 

 

US​​ vs China– Monitor Trade war
Pay attention to any escalation 

 

 

China- Evergrande issue  (Updated: 26 Aug 21)
– Monitor as it could impact China’s banking system
– Evergrande defaulted on an interest payment to Australia 1st Oct 2021


Israel & Iran & Gaza – Monitor – Conflict Escalation & Possible Nuclear Arsenal (Update: 22 Aug 21)


Goldman Sachs Analysis – Be prudent about the analysis re US​​ economy
(22 Aug 2021)


Afghanistan – Unfolding Situation (Updated: 22 Aug 21)


 

 

 

 

​​ 

​​ Important Items

    – Impact: Medium Term Impact

 

 

Silicon Valley Bank collapses after failing to raise capital​​ (Added:  11 March 2023)

 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor for further possible impacts on the US banking system.

https://news.yahoo.com/global-bank-shares-sink-over-101228446.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall

 

 

US Dollar losing primacy as Reserve Currency  (Added:  23 March 2022)
   Russia demanding Roubles or Yuan instead of USD for payments.
https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1146816-the-us-dollars-global-standing-as-the-top
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/putin-says-russia-will-start-selling-gas-unfriendly-countries-roubles-2022-03-23/

 


Banks under Scrutiny by ECB  ​​ ​​​​ – (Added:  4th December 2022)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor for limited credit causing financial problems​​ 
 ​​​​ ​​ Effects Deutsche Bank & BNP Paribas

US-Iran Tension Escalation

China/Taiwan – Monitor for possible aggression
as per Chinese general saying military action is considered.

 

EU – Poland – Monitor for possible Issues (Updated: 9 Oct 2021)
   after Poland Constitutional Court decision. PolExit?

European Union Dissolving? Monitor the EU for
interstate difficulties​​ exacerbated by the Covid19 epidemic
via EU Council meeting relationships degrading
– also monitor Germany’s Constitutional Court Ruling
for future implications – re EURO viability, EU partnerships,
& possible end of EU? More info here: www.cnbc.com/


China/Hong Kong – Monitor

EU – Germany’s political situation is not settled
Additional EU Entrants possible?

Syria – Could disrupt in the markets

Libya – Geopolitical/Military escalation could affect Oil Prices

ECB – Monitor statements for weakening impacts
ECB outlook is becoming more pessimistic re EU Economy
Monitor any action taken if/when QE ceases at Year End.

 

 

 

 

​​ Ongoing Items

    – Impact: Very Long Term Repercussions

 

 

 

Italy – Monitor (Updated: 17 July 2022, -​​ 14 Feb 2021)
Draghi​​ quits as PM, could still impact EU
– Monitor – Budget & Banking System
– Monitor – Possible EU Penalty & alternate currency

OPEC – Monitor (Updated: 07 July 2023) 
 – Unexpectedly dropped the price​​ 
 – considering dropping USD as denomination currency
 –​​ Influence of terrorism on production has risen.

 

German Bank (WireCard) Bankrupted – Monitor for
possible future ramifications for stability
– eg domino effect a la Lehman Brothers.

 

Karlsruhe German Constitutional Court (Updated: 9 May 21)
Monitor: Decision re ECB PEPP (QE)
Could be revoked causing major impact on the German economy

 

China vs India vs Pakistan– Monitor conflicts along border.

 

 

 

 

Archive - 23rd April 2023

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MAX NewsWatch List

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

23rd​​ April 2023

 

 

Market Open Times​​ (NY Time): 
US 8am – Tokyo ?pm – Frankfurt 2am – London 3am
Be careful – Daylight ​​ Saving Changes are in play

 

 

All Times are in New York Times

 

 

Impact

Date

Time

Currency

News Event

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

N.A.

Sun Apr 23

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Mon Apr 24

4:00 a.m.

EUR

German ifo Business Climate

 

Monitor

Mon Apr 24

Tentative

EUR

German Buba Monthly Report

 

Holiday

Mon Apr 24

All Day

NZD

Bank Holiday

 

Holiday

Mon Apr 24

All Day

AUD

Bank Holiday

 

.

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Tue Apr 25

1:00 a.m.

JPY

BOJ Core CPI y/y

 

All TFs

Tue Apr 25

2:00 a.m.

CHF

Trade Balance

 

Holiday

Tue Apr 25

All Day

EUR

Italian Bank Holiday

 

All TFs

Tue Apr 25

10:00 a.m.

USD

CB Consumer Confidence

 

Monitor

Tue Apr 25

10:00 a.m.

USD

New Home Sales

 

All TFs

Tue Apr 25

6:45 p.m.

NZD

Trade Balance

 

All TFs

Tue Apr 25

9:30 p.m.

AUD

CPI q/q

 

All TFs

Tue Apr 25

9:30 p.m.

AUD

Trimmed Mean CPI q/q

 

.

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Wed Apr 26

2:00 a.m.

EUR

German GfK Consumer Climate

 

Monitor

Wed Apr 26

4:00 a.m.

CHF

Credit Suisse Economic Expectations

 

Under H4

Wed Apr 26

8:30 a.m.

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders m/m

 

Under H4

Wed Apr 26

8:30 a.m.

USD

Durable Goods Orders m/m

 

Monitor

Wed Apr 26

10:30 a.m.

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

 

Monitor

Wed Apr 26

1:30 p.m.

CAD

BOC Summary of Deliberations

 

Monitor

Wed Apr 26

9:00 p.m.

NZD

ANZ Business Confidence

 

.

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Thu Apr 27

Tentative

EUR

Italian 10-y Bond Auction

 

All TFs

Thu Apr 27

8:30 a.m.

USD

Advance GDP q/q

 

Monitor

Thu Apr 27

8:30 a.m.

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

All TFs

Thu Apr 27

8:30 a.m.

USD

Advance GDP Price Index q/q

 

Monitor

Thu Apr 27

10:30 a.m.

USD

Natural Gas Storage

 

Monitor

Thu Apr 27

7:30 p.m.

JPY

Tokyo Core CPI y/y

 

Hi Impact

Thu Apr 27

Tentative

JPY

BOJ Outlook Report

 

Hi Impact

Thu Apr 27

Tentative

JPY

Monetary Policy Statement

 

Hi Impact

Thu Apr 27

Tentative

JPY

BOJ Policy Rate

 

.

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Fri Apr 28

All Day

EUR

German Prelim CPI m/m

 

Hi Impact

Fri Apr 28

Tentative

JPY

BOJ Press Conference

 

Monitor

Fri Apr 28

3:00 a.m.

CHF

KOF Economic Barometer

 

Monitor

Fri Apr 28

4:00 a.m.

EUR

German Prelim GDP q/q

 

Monitor

Fri Apr 28

5:00 a.m.

EUR

Prelim Flash GDP q/q

 

Monitor

Fri Apr 28

All Day

EUR

Eurogroup Meetings

 

All TFs

Fri Apr 28

8:30 a.m.

CAD

GDP m/m

 

All TFs

Fri Apr 28

8:30 a.m.

USD

Core PCE Price Index m/m

 

Under H4

Fri Apr 28

9:45 a.m.

USD

Chicago PMI

 

.

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Sat Apr 29

All Day

EUR

ECOFIN Meetings

 

Monitor

Sat Apr 29

9:30 p.m.

CNY

Manufacturing PMI

 

Monitor

Sat Apr 29

9:30 p.m.

CNY

Non-Manufacturing PMI

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


“Top Pairs” Lists


23rd​​ April 2023​​ 

 

The Top Pairs below are ones that have moved the most in the past 4 weeks.
They are listed in $ order: largest $ to smallest $ movers.

Pick the “low-hanging fruit” i.e. pairs that have moved the​​ most,​​ 
as they are more likely to move this week.

 

Last week

Pair

Avg Daily​​ 
Pip Range

Avg Daily
 ​​​​ $ Range ​​ 

 

1

GBPJPY

144

1072

Suggested

Best Pairs

2

GBPAUD

145

970

3

GBPNZD

154

943

4

EURJPY

124

925

5

USDJPY

124

922

6

CHFJPY

123

914

7

EURNZD

145

889

8

GBPUSD

89

889

9

EURAUD

132

885

10

USDCHF

68

759

11

EURUSD

76

756

Less stressful?​​ 

12

GBPCHF

66

741

Not as profitable as the

13

GBPCAD

98

725

“Best Pairs”

14

CADJPY

93

692

but possibly easier​​ 

15

AUDUSD

69

687

to trade.

16

NZDUSD

66

664

 

17

AUDJPY

86

644

 

 

18

AUDCHF

56

630

 

19

NZDCHF

54

609

 

20

EURCAD

82

609

 

21

NZDJPY

79

589

 

22

USDCAD

73

537

Poorer performers:

23

NZDCAD

71

525

Much less volatility​​ &

24

EURCHF

46

519

likely​​ less​​ profit from

25

AUDCAD

70

517

these pairs based on

26

CADCHF

45

501

their past performance

27

EURGBP

37

459

 

28

AUDNZD

64

392

 

#E5F8FF

 

 

 

Short List of Each Day’s Top Pairs

Use these suggested pairs to help limit the pairs you monitor each day.
These pairs use the News Events to help narrow the selection.
MAX Courses will teach you how to make this table for yourself.

Pairs at the top have more important News Events (e.g. Hi Impact) than lower pairs.

 

 

Day

Mon​​ 24

Tues​​ 25

Wed​​ 26

Thurs 27

Friday 28

 

 

1st Choices

GBPJPY or GBPAUD

USDCHF or USDJPY

GBPAUD, GBPNZD or USDJPY

USDJPY or GBPJPY

USDJPY or GBPJPY

GBPNZD or EURJPY

CHFJPY or GBPUSD

EURNZD or GBPUSD

EURJPY or CHFJPY

EURJPY or CHFJPY

 

2nd Choices

USDJPY or CHFJPY

GBPJPY or GBPAUD

EURAUD or USDCHF

GBPUSD or USDCHF

GBPUSD, ​​ USDCHF or GBPCAD

 

 

 

 

 

Smooth Movers


Pairs that might be less volatile & easier to trade

 

 

 

Forex Pairs


If you are uncomfortable with the faster more volatile pairs above, you could consider monitoring/trading these ones instead.


Less money, but possibly less volatility & stress.

 

 

Indices


Consider trading these indices, too.
Be careful, take your time & make certain you know how they move. They use points & fractions of points.
Some brokers allow trading the Indices by CFDs, instead of Futures.​​ 
Check with your broker for more info.

 

  • EURUSD

  • GBPCHF

  • GBPCAD

  • CADJPY

  • AUDUSD

  • NZDUSD

  • DAX

  • DOW Jones

  • NASDAQ

  • S&P 500

  • FTS100

  • NK225

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Longer Term Issues​​ 

 
23rd​​ April 2023

Last modified ​​ – ​​ 7th​​ April 2023​​ –​​ (OPEC Oil price drop)

 

 

​​ 

​​ Critical Items

    – Impact: Possible Immediate Impact

 

 

 

All Countries– Covid19 – Corona Virus
– Monitor for business​​ changes/closures as lockdowns start to expire.
–​​ Closely monitor the Central Banks (Fed & others) for more surprise​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ decisions on Interest Rate Cuts &/or QE.

 

USSR/Ukraine/USA – Monitor (Updated: 18th Sept 2022,24 Feb 2022 (from Feb 2021))
   ​​        ​​ Beware – this conflict has escalated

Credit Suisse – Monitor (Updated 18 March 2023, Added: 9 Oct 2022)
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Possible merger with USB due to CS’s deposit withdrawals & stock slide.
           Possible bankruptcy due to margin calls 

 

US​​ vs China– Monitor Trade war
Pay attention to any escalation 

 

China- Evergrande issue  (Updated: 26 Aug 21)
– Monitor as it could impact China’s banking system
– Evergrande defaulted on an interest payment to Australia 1st Oct 2021

Israel & Iran & Gaza – Monitor – Conflict Escalation & Possible Nuclear Arsenal (Update: 22 Aug 21)

Goldman Sachs Analysis – Be prudent about the analysis re US​​ economy
(22 Aug 2021)

Afghanistan – Unfolding Situation (Updated: 22 Aug 21)


 

 

 

 

​​ 

​​ Important Items

    – Impact: Medium Term Impact

 

 

Silicon Valley Bank collapses after failing to raise capital​​ (Added:  11 March 2023)

 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor for further possible impacts on the US banking system.

https://news.yahoo.com/global-bank-shares-sink-over-101228446.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall

 

 

US Dollar losing primacy as Reserve Currency  (Added:  23 March 2022)
   Russia demanding Roubles or Yuan instead of USD for payments.
https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1146816-the-us-dollars-global-standing-as-the-top
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/putin-says-russia-will-start-selling-gas-unfriendly-countries-roubles-2022-03-23/

 


Banks under Scrutiny by ECB  ​​ ​​​​ – (Added:  4th December 2022)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor for limited credit causing financial problems​​ 
 ​​​​ ​​ Effects Deutsche Bank & BNP Paribas

US-Iran Tension Escalation

China/Taiwan – Monitor for possible aggression
as per Chinese general saying military action is considered.

 

EU – Poland – Monitor for possible Issues (Updated: 9 Oct 2021)
   after Poland Constitutional Court decision. PolExit?

European Union Dissolving? Monitor the EU for
interstate difficulties​​ exacerbated by the Covid19 epidemic
via EU Council meeting relationships degrading
– also monitor Germany’s Constitutional Court Ruling
for future implications – re EURO viability, EU partnerships,
& possible end of EU? More info here: www.cnbc.com/


China/Hong Kong – Monitor

EU – Germany’s political situation is not settled
Additional EU Entrants possible?

Syria – Could disrupt in the markets

Libya – Geopolitical/Military escalation could affect Oil Prices

ECB – Monitor statements for weakening impacts
ECB outlook is becoming more pessimistic re EU Economy
Monitor any action taken if/when QE ceases at Year End.

 

 

 

 

​​ Ongoing Items

    – Impact: Very Long Term Repercussions

 

 

 

Italy – Monitor (Updated: 17 July 2022, -​​ 14 Feb 2021)
Draghi​​ quits as PM, could still impact EU
– Monitor – Budget & Banking System
– Monitor – Possible EU Penalty & alternate currency

OPEC – Monitor (Updated: 07 July 2023) 
 – Unexpectedly dropped the price​​ 
 – considering dropping USD as denomination currency
 –​​ Influence of terrorism on production has risen.

 

German Bank (WireCard) Bankrupted – Monitor for
possible future ramifications for stability
– eg domino effect a la Lehman Brothers.

 

Karlsruhe German Constitutional Court (Updated: 9 May 21)
Monitor: Decision re ECB PEPP (QE)
Could be revoked causing major impact on the German economy

 

China vs India vs Pakistan– Monitor conflicts along border.

 

 

 

 

Archive - 16th April 2023

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MAX NewsWatch List

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

16th​​ April 2023

 

 

Market Open Times​​ (NY Time): 
US 8am – Tokyo ?pm – Frankfurt 2am – London 3am
Be careful – Daylight ​​ Saving Changes are in play

 

 

All Times are in New York Times

 

 

Impact

Date

Time

Currency

News Event

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Sun ​​ Apr 16

Day 7

All

IMF Meetings

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Under H4

Mon ​​ Apr 17

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Wholesale Sales m/m

 

Monitor

Mon ​​ Apr 17

9:30 p.m.

AUD

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

 

Monitor

Mon ​​ Apr 17

10:00​​ p.m.

CNY

GDP q/y

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Tue ​​ Apr 18

2:00 a.m.

GBP

Average Earnings Index 3m/y

 

Under H4

Tue ​​ Apr 18

5:00 a.m.

EUR

German ZEW Economic Sentiment

 

All TFs

Tue ​​ Apr 18

5:00 a.m.

EUR

Trade Balance

 

Under H4

Tue ​​ Apr 18

5:00 a.m.

EUR

ZEW​​ Economic Sentiment

 

All TFs

Tue ​​ Apr 18

8:30 a.m.

CAD

CPI m/m

 

All TFs

Tue ​​ Apr 18

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Core CPI m/m

 

Monitor

Tue ​​ Apr 18

8:30 a.m.

USD

Housing Starts

 

All TFs

Tue ​​ Apr 18

Tentative

NZD

GDT Price Index

 

Monitor

Tue ​​ Apr 18

11:00 a.m.

CAD

BOC Gov Macklem Speaks

 

Monitor

Tue ​​ Apr 18

8:30 p.m.

AUD

MI Leading Index m/m

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Wed ​​ Apr 19

2:00 a.m.

GBP

CPI y/y

 

Monitor

Wed ​​ Apr 19

2:00 a.m.

GBP

Core CPI y/y

 

All TFs

Wed ​​ Apr 19

4:00 a.m.

EUR

Current Account

 

Monitor

Wed ​​ Apr 19

5:00 a.m.

EUR

Final CPI y/y

 

Monitor

Wed ​​ Apr 19

5:00 a.m.

EUR

Final Core CPI y/y

 

Monitor

Wed ​​ Apr 19

Tentative

EUR

German 10-y Bond Auction

 

Monitor

Wed ​​ Apr 19

Tentative

GBP

BOE Quarterly Bulletin

 

Monitor

Wed ​​ Apr 19

8:15 a.m.

CAD

Housing​​ Starts

 

Monitor

Wed ​​ Apr 19

10:30 a.m.

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

 

Monitor

Wed ​​ Apr 19

2:00 p.m.

USD

Beige Book

 

All TFs

Wed ​​ Apr 19

6:45 p.m.

NZD

CPI q/q

 

All TFs

Wed ​​ Apr 19

7:50 p.m.

JPY

Trade Balance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Thu ​​ Apr 20

Tentative

EUR

Spanish 10-y Bond Auction

 

Monitor

Thu ​​ Apr 20

7:30 a.m.

EUR

ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

 

Monitor

Thu ​​ Apr 20

8:30 a.m.

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

Under H4

Thu ​​ Apr 20

8:30 a.m.

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

 

Monitor

Thu ​​ Apr 20

10:00​​ a.m.

USD

Existing Home Sales

 

Monitor

Thu ​​ Apr 20

10:30 a.m.

USD

Natural Gas Storage

 

Monitor

Thu ​​ Apr 20

11:30 a.m.

CAD

BOC Gov Macklem Speaks

 

Monitor

Thu ​​ Apr 20

7:01 p.m.

GBP

GfK Consumer Confidence

 

Monitor

Thu ​​ Apr 20

7:30 p.m.

JPY

National Core CPI y/y

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Under H4

Fri ​​ Apr 21

2:00 a.m.

GBP

Retail Sales m/m

 

Monitor

Fri ​​ Apr 21

4:00 a.m.

EUR

Flash Manufacturing PMI

 

Monitor

Fri ​​ Apr 21

4:00 a.m.

EUR

Flash Services PMI

 

Under H4

Fri ​​ Apr 21

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Core Retail​​ Sales m/m

 

Under H4

Fri ​​ Apr 21

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Retail Sales m/m

 

Monitor

Fri ​​ Apr 21

9:45 a.m.

USD

Flash Manufacturing PMI

 

Monitor

Fri ​​ Apr 21

9:45 a.m.

USD

Flash Services PMI

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NA

Sat ​​ Apr 22

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Longer Term Issues​​ 

 
16th​​ April 2023

Last modified ​​ – ​​ 7th​​ April​​ 2023​​ –​​ (OPEC Oil price drop)

 

 

​​ 

​​ Critical Items

    – Impact: Possible Immediate Impact

 

 

 

All Countries– Covid19 – Corona Virus
– Monitor for​​ business changes/closures​​ as lockdowns start to expire.
–​​ Closely monitor the Central Banks (Fed & others) for more​​ surprise​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ decisions on Interest Rate Cuts &/or QE.

 

USSR/Ukraine/USA – Monitor (Updated: 18th Sept 2022,24 Feb 2022 (from Feb 2021))
       ​​    ​​ Beware – this conflict has escalated

Credit Suisse – Monitor (Updated 18 March 2023, Added: 9 Oct 2022)
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Possible merger with USB due to CS’s deposit withdrawals & stock slide.
           Possible bankruptcy due to margin calls 

 

US vs​​ China– Monitor Trade war
Pay attention to any escalation 

 

China- Evergrande issue  (Updated: 26 Aug 21)
– Monitor as it could impact China’s banking system
– Evergrande defaulted on an interest payment to Australia 1st Oct 2021

Israel & Iran & Gaza – Monitor – Conflict Escalation & Possible Nuclear Arsenal (Update: 22 Aug 21)

Goldman Sachs Analysis – Be prudent about the analysis re US economy
(22 Aug 2021)

Afghanistan – Unfolding Situation (Updated: 22 Aug 21)


 

 

 

 

​​ 

​​ Important Items

    – Impact: Medium Term Impact

 

 

Silicon Valley Bank collapses after failing to raise capital​​ (Added:  11 March 2023)

 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor for further possible impacts on the US banking system.

https://news.yahoo.com/global-bank-shares-sink-over-101228446.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall

 

 

US Dollar losing primacy as Reserve Currency  (Added:  23 March 2022)
   Russia demanding Roubles or Yuan instead of USD for payments.
https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1146816-the-us-dollars-global-standing-as-the-top
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/putin-says-russia-will-start-selling-gas-unfriendly-countries-roubles-2022-03-23/

 


Banks under Scrutiny by ECB  ​​ ​​​​ – (Added:  4th December 2022)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor for limited credit causing financial problems​​ 
 ​​​​ ​​ Effects Deutsche Bank & BNP Paribas

US-Iran Tension Escalation

China/Taiwan – Monitor for possible aggression
as per Chinese general saying military action is considered.

 

EU – Poland – Monitor for possible Issues (Updated: 9 Oct 2021)
   after Poland Constitutional Court decision. PolExit?

European Union Dissolving? Monitor the EU for
interstate difficulties​​ exacerbated by the Covid19 epidemic
via EU Council meeting relationships degrading
– also monitor Germany’s Constitutional Court Ruling
for future implications – re EURO viability, EU partnerships,
& possible end of EU? More info here: www.cnbc.com/


China/Hong Kong – Monitor

EU – Germany’s political situation is not settled
Additional EU Entrants possible?

Syria – Could disrupt in the markets

Libya – Geopolitical/Military escalation could affect Oil Prices

ECB – Monitor statements for weakening impacts
ECB outlook is becoming more pessimistic re EU Economy
Monitor any action taken if/when QE ceases at Year End.

 

 

 

 

​​ Ongoing Items

    – Impact: Very Long Term Repercussions

 

 

 

Italy – Monitor (Updated: 17 July 2022, -​​ 14 Feb 2021)
Draghi​​ quits as PM, could still impact EU
– Monitor – Budget & Banking System
– Monitor – Possible EU Penalty & alternate currency

OPEC – Monitor (Updated: 07 July 2023) 
 – Unexpectedly dropped the price​​ 
 – considering dropping USD as denomination currency
 –​​ Influence of terrorism on production has risen.

 

German Bank (WireCard) Bankrupted – Monitor for
possible future ramifications for stability
– eg domino effect a la Lehman Brothers.

 

Karlsruhe German Constitutional Court (Updated: 9 May 21)
Monitor: Decision re ECB PEPP (QE)
Could be revoked causing major impact on the German economy

 

China vs India vs Pakistan– Monitor conflicts along border.

 

 

 

 


“Top Pairs” Lists


16th​​ April 2023​​ 

 

The Top Pairs below are ones that have moved the most in the past 4 weeks.
They are listed in $ order: largest $ to smallest $ movers.

Pick the “low-hanging fruit” i.e. pairs that have moved the​​ most,​​ 
as they are more likely to move this week.

 

Last week

Pair

Avg Daily​​ 
Pip Range

Avg Daily
 ​​​​ $ Range ​​ 

 

1

GBPJPY

171

1276

Suggested

Best Pairs

2

EURJPY

160

1193

3

CHFJPY

155

1161

4

USDJPY

141

1055

5

GBPNZD

162

1004

6

EURNZD

159

986

7

GBPAUD

145

974

8

EURAUD

144

968

9

GBPUSD

96

956

10

GBPCHF

80

893

11

EURUSD

87

874

Less stressful?​​ 
Not as profitable as the “Best Pairs” but possibly easier to trade​​ 
– less volatile.

 

12

CADJPY

113

844

13

USDCHF

75

836

14

AUDJPY

107

799

15

AUDUSD

74

744

16

GBPCAD

98

734

17

AUDCHF

65

728

18

NZDUSD

71

712

 

19

NZDJPY

95

711

 

"Poorer performers

Much less volatility & likely profit from these pairs based on their past performances."

20

EURCAD

94

703

21

NZDCHF

60

671

 

 

 

 

22

EURCHF

58

645

23

USDCAD

80

597

24

NZDCAD

78

586

25

CADCHF

51

576

26

AUDCAD

74

555

27

EURGBP

45

553

28

AUDNZD

68

421

#E5F8FF

 

 

 

 

Short List of Each Day’s Top Pairs

Use these suggested pairs to help limit the pairs you monitor each day.
These pairs use the News Events to help narrow the selection.
MAX Courses will teach you how to make this table for yourself.

Pairs at the top have more important News Events (e.g. Hi Impact) than lower pairs.

 

 

Day

Mon 17

Tues 18

Wed 19

Thurs​​ 20

Friday​​ 21

 

 

1st Choices

EURNZD or EURJPY

EURNZD or EURJPY

EURNZD or EURJPY

USDJPY or GBPJPY

GBPJPY or GBPNZD

EURAUD or GBPJPY

GBPNZD or EURAUD

EURAUD or GBPJPY

EURJPY or CHFJPY

GBPAUD or GBPUSD

 

2nd Choices

CADJPY, CHFJPY or USDJPY

GBPJPY or​​ CHFJPY

EURJPY or CHFJPY

GBPNZD, EURNZD or GBPUSD

GBPCHF, EURJPY or CADJPY

 

 

 

 

 

Smooth Movers


Pairs that might be less volatile & easier to trade

 

 

 

Forex Pairs


If you are uncomfortable with the faster more volatile pairs above, you could​​ consider monitoring/trading these ones instead.


Less money, but possibly less volatility & stress.

 

 

Indices


Consider trading these indices, too.
Be careful, take your time & make certain you know how they move. They use points & fractions of points.
Some brokers allow trading the Indices by CFDs, instead of Futures.​​ 
Check with your broker for more info.

 

  • EURUSD

  • CADJPY

  • USDCHF

  • AUDJPY

  • AUDUSD

  • GBPCAD

  • AUDCHF

  • NZDUSD

 

  • DAX

  • DOW Jones

  • NASDAQ

  • S&P 500

  • FTS100

  • NK225

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No Weekly Outlook this week

Archive - 9th April 2023

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MAX NewsWatch List

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

9th​​ April 2023

 

Market Open Times​​ (NY Time): 
US 8am – Tokyo ?pm – Frankfurt 2am – London 3am
Be careful – Daylight ​​ Saving Changes are in play

 

All Times are in New York Times

 

Impact

Date

Time

Currency

News Event

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Holiday

Sun Apr 9

All Day

NZD

Bank Holiday

 

Holiday

Sun Apr 9

All Day

AUD

Bank Holiday

 

All TFs

Sun Apr 9

7:50 p.m.

JPY

Current Account

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Mon Apr 10

1:00 a.m.

JPY

Consumer Confidence

 

Holiday

Mon Apr 10

All Day

CHF

Bank Holiday

 

Monitor

Mon Apr 10

2:00 a.m.

JPY

Economy Watchers Sentiment

 

Holiday

Mon Apr 10

All Day

GBP

Bank Holiday

 

Holiday

Mon Apr 10

All Day

EUR

French Bank Holiday

 

Holiday

Mon Apr 10

All Day

EUR

German Bank Holiday

 

Holiday

Mon Apr 10

All Day

EUR

Italian Bank Holiday

 

Monitor

Mon Apr 10

Tentative

CNY

New Loans

 

Monitor

Mon Apr 10

Tentative

CNY

M2 Money Supply y/y

 

Monitor

Mon Apr 10

Day 1

All

IMF Meetings

 

Monitor

Mon Apr 10

9:30 p.m.

AUD

NAB Business Confidence

 

Monitor

Mon Apr 10

9:30 p.m.

CNY

CPI y/y

 

Monitor

Mon Apr 10

9:30 p.m.

CNY

PPI y/y

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Tue Apr 11

Day 2

All

IMF Meetings

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Wed Apr 12

Tentative

EUR

German 30-y Bond Auction

 

All TFs

Wed Apr 12

8:30 a.m.

USD

CPI m/m

 

Monitor

Wed Apr 12

8:30 a.m.

USD

CPI y/y

 

All TFs

Wed Apr 12

8:30 a.m.

USD

Core CPI m/m

 

Hi Impact

Wed Apr 12

10:00 a.m.

CAD

BOC Monetary Policy Report

 

Hi Impact

Wed Apr 12

10:00 a.m.

CAD

BOC Rate Statement

 

Hi Impact

Wed Apr 12

10:00 a.m.

CAD

Overnight Rate

 

Monitor

Wed Apr 12

Day 3

All

IMF Meetings

 

Monitor

Wed Apr 12

10:30 a.m.

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

 

Hi Impact

Wed Apr 12

11:00 a.m.

CAD

BOC Press Conference

 

Monitor

Wed Apr 12

1:01 p.m.

USD

10-y Bond Auction

 

Monitor

Wed Apr 12

2:00 p.m.

USD

FOMC Meeting Minutes

 

Monitor

Wed Apr 12

2:00 p.m.

USD

Federal Budget Balance

 

Monitor

Wed Apr 12

9:00 p.m.

AUD

MI Inflation Expectations

 

Under H4

Wed Apr 12

9:30 p.m.

AUD

Employment Change

 

Under H4

Wed Apr 12

9:30 p.m.

AUD

Unemployment Rate

 

Monitor

Wed Apr 12

Tentative

CNY

Trade Balance

 

Monitor

Wed Apr 12

Tentative

CNY

USD-Denominated Trade Balance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Thu Apr 13

2:00 a.m.

EUR

German Final CPI m/m

 

All TFs

Thu Apr 13

2:00 a.m.

GBP

GDP m/m

 

Under H4

Thu Apr 13

2:00 a.m.

GBP

Industrial Production m/m

 

Under H4

Thu Apr 13

2:00 a.m.

GBP

Manufacturing Production m/m

 

Monitor

Thu Apr 13

4:30 a.m.

GBP

BOE Credit Conditions Survey

 

Under H4

Thu Apr 13

5:00 a.m.

EUR

Industrial Production m/m

 

Monitor

Thu Apr 13

Tentative

EUR

Spanish 10-y Bond Auction

 

Monitor

Thu Apr 13

Tentative

GBP

10-y Bond Auction

 

Monitor

Thu Apr 13

8:30 a.m.

USD

Core PPI m/m

 

Monitor

Thu Apr 13

8:30 a.m.

USD

PPI m/m

 

Monitor

Thu Apr 13

8:30 a.m.

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

Monitor

Thu Apr 13

Tentative

GBP

NIESR GDP Estimate

 

Monitor

Thu Apr 13

Day 4

All

IMF Meetings

 

Monitor

Thu Apr 13

10:30 a.m.

USD

Natural Gas Storage

 

Monitor

Thu Apr 13

1:01 p.m.

USD

30-y Bond Auction

 

N A​​ 

Thu Apr 13

6:45 p.m.

NZD

Visitor Arrivals m/m

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Fri Apr 14

2:30 a.m.

CHF

PPI m/m

 

Under H4

Fri Apr 14

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Manufacturing Sales m/m

 

Under H4

Fri Apr 14

8:30 a.m.

USD

Core Retail Sales m/m

 

Under H4

Fri Apr 14

8:30 a.m.

USD

Retail Sales m/m

 

Under H4

Fri Apr 14

9:15 a.m.

USD

Industrial Production m/m

 

Under H4

Fri Apr 14

10:00 a.m.

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

 

Under H4

Fri Apr 14

10:00 a.m.

USD

Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations

 

Monitor

Fri Apr 14

Day 5

All

IMF Meetings

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Sat Apr 15

Day 6

All

IMF Meetings

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


“Top Pairs” Lists


9th​​ April 2023​​ 

 

The Top Pairs below are ones that have moved the most in the past 4 weeks.
They are listed in $ order: largest $ to smallest $ movers.

Pick the “low-hanging fruit” i.e. pairs that have moved the​​ most,​​ 
as they are more likely to move this week.

 

Last week

Pair

Avg Daily​​ 
Pip Range

Avg Daily
 ​​​​ $ Range ​​ 

 

1

GBPJPY

220

1661

Suggested

Best Pairs

2

EURJPY

212

1605

3

CHFJPY

187

1414

4

USDJPY

164

1240

5

EURNZD

173

1079

6

CADJPY

140

1060

7

GBPCHF

94

1041

8

AUDJPY

136

1030

9

EURAUD

153

1020

10

GBPUSD

102

1017

11

GBPNZD

162

1013

Less stressful?​​ 
Not as profitable as the “Best Pairs” but possibly easier to trade​​ 
– less volatile.

12

GBPAUD

144

962

13

EURUSD

95

946

14

USDCHF

81

898

15

NZDJPY

115

873

16

EURCHF

74

821

17

EURCAD

106

782

18

AUDCHF

71

781

 

19

GBPCAD

105

776

20

AUDUSD

76

760

21

NZDUSD

74

741

22

NZDCHF

66

733

"Poorer performers

Much less volatility & likely profit from these pairs based on their past​​ performances."

23

EURGBP

54

668

24

CADCHF

59

647

25

USDCAD

87

647

26

NZDCAD

81

597

27

AUDCAD

75

552

28

AUDNZD

73

457

#E5F8FF

 

 

 

 

Short List of Each Day’s Top Pairs

Use these suggested pairs to help limit the pairs you monitor each day.
These pairs use the News Events to help narrow the selection.
MAX Courses will teach you how to make this table for yourself.

Pairs at the top have more important News Events (e.g. Hi Impact) than lower pairs.

 

 

Day

Mon​​ 10

Tues​​ 11

Wed​​ 12

Thurs​​ 13

Friday​​ 14

 

 

1st Choices

GBPJPY or EURJPY

GBPJPY or EURJPY

CADJPY or USDJPY

EURAUD or GBPJPY

USDJPY or CADJPY

CHFJPY​​ or USDJPY

CHFJPY or USDJPY

GBPUSD or GBPJPY

EURJPY or EURNZD

GBPUSD or GBPJPY

 

2nd Choices

CADJPY or​​ AUDJPY

EURNZD or CADJPY

EURJPY or CHFJPY

GBPCHF, GBPUSD or AUDJPY

EURJPY or CHFJPY

 

 

 

 

 

Smooth Movers


Pairs that might be less volatile & easier to trade

 

 

 

Forex Pairs


If you are uncomfortable with the faster more​​ volatile pairs above, you could consider monitoring/trading these ones instead.


Less money, but possibly less volatility & stress.

 

 

Indices


Consider trading these indices, too.
Be careful, take your time & make certain you know how they move. They use points & fractions of points.
Some brokers allow trading the Indices by CFDs, instead of Futures.​​ 
Check with your broker for more info.

 

  • GBPNZD

  • GBPAUD

  • EURUSD

  • USDCHF

  • NZDJPY

  • EURCHF

  • EURCAD

  • AUDCHF

  • GBPCAD

  • AUDUSD

  • NZDUSD

 

  • DAX

  • DOW Jones

  • NASDAQ

  • S&P 500

  • FTS100

  • NK225

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Longer Term Issues​​ 

 
9th​​ April 2023

Last modified ​​ – ​​ 18th​​ March 2023​​ –​​ (Credit Suisse & SVB ongoing)

 

 

​​ 

​​ Critical Items

    – Impact: Possible Immediate Impact

 

 

 

All Countries– Covid19 – Corona Virus
– Monitor for​​ business changes/closures
as lockdowns start to expire.
–​​ Closely monitor the Central Banks (Fed & others) for more
surprise decisions on Interest Rate Cuts &/or QE.

 

USSR/Ukraine/USA – Monitor (Updated: 18th Sept 2022,24 Feb 2022 (from Feb 2021))
       ​​    ​​ Beware – this conflict​​ has​​ escalated

Credit Suisse – Monitor (Updated 18 March 2023, Added: 9 Oct 2022)
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Possible merger with USB due to CS’s deposit withdrawals & stock slide.
           Possible bankruptcy due to margin​​ calls 

 

US vs China– Monitor Trade war
Pay attention to any escalation 

 

China- Evergrande issue  (Updated: 26 Aug 21)
– Monitor as it could impact China’s banking system
– Evergrande defaulted on an interest payment to Australia 1st Oct 2021

Israel & Iran & Gaza – Monitor – Conflict Escalation & Possible Nuclear Arsenal (Update: 22 Aug 21)

Goldman Sachs Analysis – Be prudent about the analysis re US economy
(22 Aug 2021)

Afghanistan – Unfolding Situation (Updated: 22 Aug 21)


 

 

 

 

​​ 

​​ Important Items

    – Impact: Medium Term Impact

 

 

Silicon Valley Bank collapses after failing to raise capital​​ (Added:  11 March 2023)

 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor for further possible impacts on the US banking system.

https://news.yahoo.com/global-bank-shares-sink-over-101228446.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall

 

 

US Dollar losing primacy as Reserve Currency  (Added:  23 March 2022)
   Russia demanding Roubles or Yuan instead of USD for payments.
https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1146816-the-us-dollars-global-standing-as-the-top
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/putin-says-russia-will-start-selling-gas-unfriendly-countries-roubles-2022-03-23/

 


Banks under Scrutiny​​ by ECB  ​​ ​​​​ – (Added:  4th December 2022)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor for limited credit causing financial problems​​ 
 ​​​​ ​​ Effects Deutsche Bank & BNP Paribas

US-Iran Tension Escalation

China/Taiwan – Monitor for possible aggression
as per Chinese general saying military action is considered.

 

EU – Poland – Monitor for possible Issues (Updated: 9 Oct 2021)
   after Poland Constitutional Court decision. PolExit?

European Union Dissolving? Monitor the EU for
interstate difficulties​​ exacerbated by the Covid19 epidemic
via EU Council meeting relationships degrading
– also monitor Germany’s Constitutional Court Ruling
for future implications – re EURO viability, EU partnerships,
& possible end of EU? More info here: www.cnbc.com/


China/Hong Kong – Monitor

EU – Germany’s political situation is not settled
Additional EU Entrants possible?

Syria – Could disrupt in the markets

Libya – Geopolitical/Military escalation could affect Oil Prices

ECB – Monitor statements for weakening impacts
ECB outlook is becoming more pessimistic re EU Economy
Monitor any action taken if/when QE ceases at Year End.

 

 

 

 

​​ Ongoing Items

    – Impact: Very Long Term Repercussions

 

 

 

Italy – Monitor (Updated: 17 July 2022, -​​ 14 Feb 2021)
Draghi​​ quits as PM, could still impact EU
– Monitor – Budget & Banking System
– Monitor – Possible EU Penalty & alternate currency

OPEC – considering dropping USD as denomination currency
Influence of terrorism on production has risen.

 

German Bank (WireCard) Bankrupted – Monitor for
possible future ramifications for stability
– eg domino effect a la Lehman Brothers.

 

Karlsruhe German Constitutional Court (Updated: 9 May 21)
Monitor: Decision re ECB PEPP (QE)
Could be revoked causing major impact on the German economy

 

China vs India vs Pakistan– Monitor conflicts along border.

 

 

 

 

Archive - 2nd April 2023

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MAX NewsWatch List

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2nd​​ April 2023

 

Market Open Times​​ (NY Time): 
US 8am – Tokyo ?pm – Frankfurt 2am – London 3am
Be careful – Daylight ​​ Saving Changes are in play

 

All Times are in New York Times

 

Impact

Date

Time

Currency

News Event

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Mon Apr 3

2:30 a.m.

AUD

Commodity Prices y/y

 

All TFs

Mon Apr 3

2:30 a.m.

CHF

CPI m/m

 

Monitor

Mon Apr 3

All Day

All

OPEC-JMMC Meetings

 

Under H4

Mon Apr 3

9:30 a.m.

CAD

Manufacturing PMI

 

Monitor

Mon Apr 3

10:00 a.m.

USD

ISM Manufacturing PMI

 

Monitor

Mon Apr 3

10:00 a.m.

USD

ISM Manufacturing Prices

 

Monitor

Mon Apr 3

10:30 a.m.

CAD

BOC Business Outlook Survey

 

Monitor

Mon Apr 3

6:00 p.m.

NZD

NZIER Business Confidence

 

Holiday

Mon Apr 3

Tentative

CNY

Bank Holiday

 

Monitor

Mon Apr 3

11:35 p.m.

JPY

10-y Bond Auction

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hi Impact

Tue Apr 4

12:30 a.m.

AUD

Cash Rate

 

Hi Impact

Tue Apr 4

12:30 a.m.

AUD

RBA Rate Statement

 

All TFs

Tue Apr 4

Tentative

NZD

GDT Price Index

 

Holiday

Tue Apr 4

All Day

CNY

Bank Holiday

 

Hi Impact

Tue Apr 4

10:00 p.m.

NZD

Official Cash Rate

 

Hi Impact

Tue Apr 4

10:00 p.m.

NZD

RBNZ Rate Statement

 

Monitor

Tue Apr 4

10:30 p.m.

AUD

RBA Gov Lowe Speaks

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Wed Apr 5

Tentative

GBP

BOE Quarterly Bulletin

 

Under H4

Wed Apr 5

8:15 a.m.

USD

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

 

All TFs

Wed Apr 5

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Trade Balance

 

All TFs

Wed Apr 5

8:30 a.m.

USD

Trade Balance

 

Monitor

Wed Apr 5

10:00 a.m.

USD

ISM Services PMI

 

Monitor

Wed Apr 5

10:30 a.m.

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

 

Monitor

Wed Apr 5

9:30 p.m.

AUD

RBA Financial Stability Review

 

All TFs

Wed Apr 5

9:30 p.m.

AUD

Trade Balance

 

Monitor

Wed Apr 5

9:45 p.m.

CNY

Caixin Services PMI

 

Monitor

Wed Apr 5

11:35 p.m.

JPY

30-y Bond Auction

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Under H4

Thu Apr 6

2:00 a.m.

GBP

Halifax HPI m/m

 

Under H4

Thu Apr 6

4:30 a.m.

GBP

Construction PMI

 

Monitor

Thu Apr 6

Tentative

EUR

French 10-y Bond Auction

 

Under H4

Thu Apr 6

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Employment Change

 

Under H4

Thu Apr 6

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Unemployment Rate

 

Monitor

Thu Apr 6

8:30 a.m.

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

Monitor

Thu Apr 6

10:30 a.m.

USD

Natural Gas Storage

 

Holiday

Thu Apr 6

All Day

NZD

Bank Holiday

 

Holiday

Thu Apr 6

All Day

AUD

Bank Holiday

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Holiday

Fri Apr 7

All Day

CHF

Bank Holiday

 

Holiday

Fri Apr 7

All Day

GBP

Bank Holiday

 

Holiday

Fri Apr 7

All Day

EUR

German Bank Holiday

 

Holiday

Fri Apr 7

All Day

CAD

Bank Holiday

 

Hi Impact

Fri Apr 7

8:30 a.m.

USD

Average Hourly Earnings m/m

 

Hi Impact

Fri Apr 7

8:30 a.m.

USD

Non-Farm Employment Change

 

Hi Impact

Fri Apr 7

8:30 a.m.

USD

Unemployment Rate

 

Hi Impact

Fri Apr 7

8:32 a.m.

USD

Revised NFP

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NA

Sat Apr 8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


“Top Pairs” Lists


2nd​​ April 2023​​ 

 

The Top Pairs below are ones that have moved the most in the past 4 weeks.
They are listed in $ order: largest $ to smallest $ movers.

Pick the “low-hanging fruit” i.e. pairs that have moved the​​ most,​​ 
as they are more likely to move this week.

 

Last week

Pair

Avg Daily​​ 
Pip Range

Avg Daily
 ​​​​ $ Range ​​ 

 

1

GBPJPY

218

1639

Suggested

Best Pairs

2

EURJPY

208

1569

3

CHFJPY

191

1436

4

USDJPY

173

1299

5

GBPUSD

110

1100

6

CADJPY

142

1072

7

GBPCHF

95

1039

8

EURNZD

163

1017

9

AUDJPY

134

1011

10

USDCHF

90

985

11

EURAUD

145

971

Less stressful?​​ 
Not as profitable as the “Best Pairs” but possibly easier to trade​​ 
– less volatile.

12

EURUSD

97

970

13

GBPNZD

151

942

14

GBPAUD

137

915

15

NZDJPY

113

849

16

GBPCAD

115

848

17

EURCHF

75

818

18

EURCAD

108

801

 

19

AUDCHF

69

758

20

AUDUSD

75

752

21

NZDUSD

73

734

22

EURGBP

57

702

"Poorer performers

Much less volatility & likely profit from these pairs based on their past​​ performances."

23

NZDCHF

64

697

24

CADCHF

63

692

25

USDCAD

93

692

26

NZDCAD

77

572

27

AUDCAD

71

528

28

AUDNZD

66

413

#E5F8FF

 

 

 

 

Short List of Each Day’s Top Pairs

Use these suggested pairs to help limit the pairs you monitor each day.
These pairs use the News Events to help narrow the selection.
MAX Courses will teach you how to make this table for yourself.

Pairs at the top have more important News Events (e.g. Hi Impact) than lower pairs.

 

 

Day

Mon​​ 03

Tues​​ 04

Wed​​ 05

Thurs​​ 06

Friday​​ 07

 

 

1st Choices

CHFJPY
​​ or CADJPY

EURNZD or AUDJPY

USDJPY or GBPUSD

GBPJPY or GBPUSD

USDJPY or GBPUSD

GBPCHF or USDCHF

GBPJPY or EURJPY

CADJPY or USDCHF

CADJPY or GBPCHF

USDCHF or GBPJPY

 

2nd Choices

GBPJPY or EURJPY

CHFJPY or USDJPY

GBPJPY or EURJPY

AUDJPY or EURJPY

EURJPY or CHFJPY

 

 

 

 

 

Smooth Movers


Pairs that might be less volatile & easier to trade

 

 

 

Forex Pairs


If you are uncomfortable with the faster more volatile pairs above, you could consider​​ monitoring/trading these ones instead.


Less money, but possibly less volatility & stress.

 

 

Indices


Consider trading these indices, too.
Be careful, take your time & make certain you know how they move. They use points & fractions of points.
Some brokers​​ allow trading the Indices by CFDs, instead of Futures.​​ 
Check with your broker for more info.

 

  • EURAUD

  • EURUSD

  • GBPNZD

  • GBPAUD

  • NZDJPY

  • GBPCAD

  • EURCHF

  • EURCAD

  • AUDCHF

  • AUDUSD

  • NZDUSD

 

  • DAX

  • DOW Jones

  • NASDAQ

  • S&P 500

  • FTS100

  • NK225

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Longer Term Issues​​ 

 
2nd​​ April​​ 2023

Last modified ​​ – ​​ 18th​​ March 2023​​ –​​ (Credit Suisse & SVB ongoing)

 

 

​​ 

​​ Critical Items

    – Impact: Possible Immediate Impact

 

 

 

All Countries– Covid19 – Corona Virus
– Monitor for​​ business changes/closures
as lockdowns start to expire.
– Closely monitor the Central Banks (Fed & others) for more
surprise decisions on Interest Rate Cuts &/or QE.

 

USSR/Ukraine/USA – Monitor (Updated: 18th Sept 2022,24 Feb 2022 (from Feb 2021))
       ​​    ​​ Beware – this conflict is escalating –​​ too late

Credit Suisse – Monitor (Updated 18 March 2023, Added: 9 Oct 2022)
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Possible merger with USB due to CS’s deposit withdrawals & stock slide.
           Possible bankruptcy due to margin​​ calls 

 

US vs China– Monitor Trade war
Pay attention to any escalation 

 

China- Evergrande issue  (Updated: 26 Aug 21)
– Monitor as it could impact China’s banking system
– Evergrande defaulted on an interest payment to Australia 1st Oct 2021

Israel & Iran & Gaza – Monitor – Conflict Escalation & Possible Nuclear Arsenal (Update: 22 Aug 21)

Goldman Sachs Analysis – Be prudent about the analysis re US economy
(22 Aug 2021)

Afghanistan – Unfolding Situation (Updated: 22 Aug 21)


 

 

 

 

​​ 

​​ Important Items

    – Impact: Medium Term Impact

 

 

Silicon Valley Bank collapses after failing to raise capital​​ (Added:  11 March 2023)

 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor for further possible impacts on the US banking system.

https://news.yahoo.com/global-bank-shares-sink-over-101228446.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall

 

 

US Dollar losing primacy as Reserve Currency  (Added:  23 March 2022)
   Russia demanding Roubles or Yuan instead of USD for payments.
https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1146816-the-us-dollars-global-standing-as-the-top
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/putin-says-russia-will-start-selling-gas-unfriendly-countries-roubles-2022-03-23/

 


Banks under Scrutiny ​​ by ECB  ​​ ​​​​ – (Added:  4th December 2022)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor for limited credit causing financial problems​​ 
 ​​​​ ​​ Effects Deutsche Bank & BNP Paribas

US-Iran Tension Escalation

China/Taiwan – Monitor for possible aggression
as per Chinese general saying military action is considered.

 

EU – Poland – Monitor for possible Issues (Updated: 9 Oct 2021)
   after Poland Constitutional Court decision. PolExit?

European Union Dissolving? Monitor the EU for
interstate difficulties​​ exacerbated by the Covid19 epidemic
via EU Council meeting relationships degrading
– also monitor Germany’s Constitutional Court Ruling
for future implications – re EURO viability, EU partnerships,
& possible end of EU? More info here: www.cnbc.com/


China/Hong Kong – Monitor

EU – Germany’s political situation is not settled
Additional EU Entrants possible?

Syria – Could disrupt in the markets

Libya – Geopolitical/Military escalation could affect Oil Prices

ECB – Monitor statements for weakening impacts
ECB outlook is becoming more pessimistic re EU Economy
Monitor any action taken if/when QE ceases at Year End.

 

 

 

 

​​ Ongoing Items

    – Impact: Very Long Term Repercussions

 

 

 

Italy – Monitor (Updated: 17 July 2022, -​​ 14 Feb 2021)
Draghi​​ quits as PM, could still impact EU
– Monitor – Budget & Banking System
– Monitor – Possible EU Penalty & alternate currency

OPEC – considering dropping USD as denomination currency
Influence of terrorism on production has risen.

 

German Bank (WireCard) Bankrupted – Monitor for
possible future ramifications for stability
– eg domino effect a la Lehman Brothers.

 

Karlsruhe German Constitutional Court (Updated: 9 May 21)
Monitor: Decision re ECB PEPP (QE)
Could be revoked causing major impact on the German economy

 

China vs India vs Pakistan– Monitor conflicts along border.

 

 

 

 

No Weekly Outlook this week