Archive: January to March 2024
NewsWatch & Best Pairs Lists

Archive - 71th XX 2024

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Archive - 71th XX 2024

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Archive - 31st March 2024

 


MAX NewsWatch List


31st​​ March 2024​​ 

Market Open Times​​ (NY Time): 
Tokyo 8pm  –  Frankfurt 3am ​​ – ​​ London 4am ​​ – ​​ US 8am
Be careful when ​​ Daylight ​​ Saving Changes are in play
All Times are in New York Time

 

Impact

Date

Time

Cur.

News Event

 

 

 

 

 

 

Holiday

Sun Mar 31

All Day

NZD

Bank Holiday

 

Holiday

Sun Mar 31

All Day

AUD

Bank Holiday

 

Monitor

Sun Mar 31

9:45 p.m.

CNY

Caixin Manufacturing PMI

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Holiday

Mon Apr 1

All Day

CHF

Bank Holiday

 

Holiday

Mon Apr 1

All Day

EUR

French Bank Holiday

 

Holiday

Mon Apr 1

All Day

EUR

German Bank Holiday

 

Holiday

Mon Apr 1

All Day

EUR

Italian Bank Holiday

 

Holiday

Mon Apr 1

All Day

GBP

Bank Holiday

 

Under H4

Mon Apr 1

9:30 a.m.

CAD

Manufacturing PMI

 

Monitor

Mon Apr 1

10:00 a.m.

USD

ISM Manufacturing PMI

 

Monitor

Mon Apr 1

10:00 a.m.

USD

ISM Manufacturing Prices

 

Monitor

Mon Apr 1

10:30 a.m.

CAD

BOC Business Outlook Survey

 

Monitor

Mon Apr 1

8:00 p.m.

AUD

MI Inflation Gauge m/m

 

Monitor

Mon Apr 1

8:30 p.m.

AUD

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

 

Monitor

Mon Apr 1

11:35 p.m.

JPY

10-y Bond Auction

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Tue Apr 2

1:30 a.m.

AUD

Commodity Prices y/y

 

Under H4

Tue Apr 2

2:00 a.m.

GBP

Nationwide HPI m/m

 

Monitor

Tue Apr 2

All Day

EUR

German Prelim CPI m/m

 

All TFs

Tue Apr 2

Tentative

NZD

GDT Price Index

 

Monitor

Tue Apr 2

9:45 p.m.

CNY

Caixin Services PMI

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Wed Apr 3

5:00 a.m.

EUR

Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y

 

Monitor

Wed Apr 3

5:00 a.m.

EUR

CPI Flash Estimate y/y

 

Monitor

Wed Apr 3

5:00 a.m.

EUR

Unemployment Rate

 

Monitor

Wed Apr 3

5:15 a.m.

All

OPEC-JMMC Meetings

 

Monitor

Wed Apr 3

Tentative

EUR

German 10-y Bond Auction

 

Under H4

Wed Apr 3

8:15 a.m.

USD

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

 

Monitor

Wed Apr 3

10:00 a.m.

USD

ISM Services PMI

 

Monitor

Wed Apr 3

10:30 a.m.

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

 

Holiday

Wed Apr 3

All Day

CNY

Bank Holiday

 

Monitor

Wed Apr 3

11:35 p.m.

JPY

30-y Bond Auction

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

All TFs

Thu Apr 4

2:30 a.m.

CHF

CPI m/m

 

Monitor

Thu Apr 4

Tentative

EUR

Spanish 10-y Bond Auction

 

Monitor

Thu Apr 4

Tentative

EUR

French 10-y Bond Auction

 

Monitor

Thu Apr 4

Tentative

GBP

10-y Bond Auction

 

Monitor

Thu Apr 4

7:30 a.m.

EUR

ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

 

All TFs

Thu Apr 4

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Trade Balance

 

Monitor

Thu Apr 4

8:30 a.m.

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

All TFs

Thu Apr 4

8:30 a.m.

USD

Trade Balance

 

Monitor

Thu Apr 4

10:30 a.m.

USD

Natural Gas Storage

 

Holiday

Thu Apr 4

All Day

CNY

Bank Holiday

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Under H4

Fri Apr 5

2:00 a.m.

GBP

Halifax HPI m/m

 

Under H4

Fri Apr 5

4:30 a.m.

GBP

Construction PMI

 

Under H4

Fri Apr 5

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Employment Change

 

Under H4

Fri Apr 5

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Unemployment Rate

 

Hi Impact

Fri Apr 5

8:30 a.m.

USD

Average Hourly Earnings m/m

 

Hi Impact

Fri Apr 5

8:30 a.m.

USD

Non-Farm Employment Change

 

Hi Impact

Fri Apr 5

8:30 a.m.

USD

Unemployment Rate

 

Hi Impact

Fri Apr 5

8:32 a.m.

USD

NFP Revision

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Daylight

Sat Apr 6

10:00 a.m.

NZD

Daylight Saving Time Shift

 

Daylight

Sat Apr 6

12:00 p.m.

AUD

Daylight Saving Time Shift

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


“Top Pairs” Lists


31st​​ March 2024

 

The Top Pairs below are ones that have moved the most in the past 4 weeks.
They are listed in $ order: largest $ to smallest $ movers.

Pick the “low-hanging fruit” i.e. pairs that have moved the​​ most,​​ 
as they are more likely to move this week.

 

Order

Pair

Avg Daily​​ 
Pip Range

Avg Daily
 ​​​​ $ Range ​​ 

Comment 

1

GBPJPY

120

794

Suggested

Best Pairs

2

CHFJPY

112

740

3

EURJPY

107

707

4

GBPUSD

69

692

5

GBPCHF

59

649

6

GBPAUD

100

648

7

USDJPY

98

644

8

GBPNZD

100

596

9

USDCHF

52

574

10

EURAUD

82

531

11

EURCHF

48

527

Less stressful?​​ 

12

EURUSD

52

520

Maybe less profitable,

13

GBPCAD

70

520

maybe easier trades?

14

EURNZD

83

499

 

15

AUDUSD

49

488

 

 

16

CADJPY

72

475

 

17

USDCAD

63

468

 

 

18

AUDJPY

67

443

 

19

AUDCHF

39

434

​​ 

20

NZDUSD

43

432

​​ 

21

EURCAD

54

400

​​ 

22

NZDCHF

35

388

Poorer performers:

23

CADCHF

34

381

Much less volatility &

24

NZDJPY

56

368

likely less profit from

25

EURGBP

27

336

these pairs based on

26

AUDCAD

41

303

their past performance

27

NZDCAD

39

290

 

28

AUDNZD

34

201

 

#E5F8FF

 

 

Short List of Each Day’s Top Pairs

Use these suggested pairs to help limit the pairs you monitor each day.
These pairs use the News Events to help narrow the​​ selection.
MAX Courses will teach you how to make this table for yourself.

Pairs at the top have more important News Events (e.g. Hi Impact) than lower pairs.

 

 

Day

Mon 25th ​​​​ March

Tues 26

Wed 27

Thur 28

Fri 29

 

 

1st​​ 
Choices

Bank
Holiday


Recommend​​ 
No Trading
​​ Today

GBPJPY or CHFJPY

GBPNZD or GBPJPY

GBPUSD or USDJPY

USDCHF or CHFJPY

GBPUSD, USDJPY or USDCHF

GBPCAD,​​ 
EURJPY or GBPUSD

GBPUSD or GBPCHF

GBPNZD or USDCHF

GBPCAD, GBPUSD or USDJPY​​ 

GBPCAD, GBPJPY or GBPCHF

 

2nd​​ 
Choices

GBPCHF or GBPAUD

GBPAUD or CHFJPY

GBPJPY or CHFJPY

GBPJPY or EURJPY

GBPAUD or GBPNZD

 

 

 

 

Smooth Movers


These pairs might be less volatile & easier to trade.

 

 

 

Forex Pairs


If you are uncomfortable with the faster more volatile pairs​​ above, you could consider monitoring/trading these ones instead.


Less money, but possibly less volatility & stress.

 

 

Indices


Consider trading these indices, too.
Be careful, take your time & make certain you know how they move. They use points & fractions of points.
Some brokers allow trading the Indices by CFDs, instead of Futures.​​ 
Check with your broker for more info.

 

  • EURCHF

  • EURUSD

  • GBPCAD

  • DAX

  • DOW Jones

  • NASDAQ

  • S&P 500

  • FTS100

  • NK225

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Longer Term Issues​​ 


31st​​ March 2024


Last modified ​​ –​​ China: Real Estate​​ crisis threatens Banks  ​​​​ - 30th​​ March 2024 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ 

​​ 

​​ Critical Items

    – Impact: Possible Immediate Impact

 

   ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ 

 

Japan – Monitor –​​ Accomplished: ​​ Mon 18th​​ Mar: BOJ Policy Rate now +0.1% from -0.1%  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1274087-bank-of-japans-policy-shift-ushers-in-a?&highlight=japan
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Japan is set to end its decades-long negative interest rates policy​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1273141-japan-on-cusp-of-ending-its-negative-interest?&highlight=japan
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Added 16 March 2024)

 


All Countries– Inflation ​​ ​​ (Added:  30th April 2023)
–​​ Closely monitor the Central Banks (Fed & others) for​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Recession mitigation & Interest Rate Changes.

 

USSR/Ukraine – Monitor (Updated: 18th Sept 2022,24 Feb 2022 & 2021))

 


Israel & Iran & Gaza/Hamas – Monitor – Conflict Escalation & Possible Nuclear Arsenal

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​  (Update: 14 Oct 2023, ​​​​ 22 Aug 21)
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Monitor - ​​ Red Sea skirmishes ​​ ​​ (Added: ​​ 23rd​​ Dec 2023)

China –​​ Real Estate/Evergrande issue -​​ ​​ possible deflation setting up  ​​ ​​​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Updated: 30 March 2024, 3 Feb 2024, ​​ 25 Nov 2023, 19 Aug 2023 ​​ & 26 Aug 21) ​​ ​​​​ Monitor ​​ - impact on​​ trading partners​​ - esp Aus & NZ

 ​​ ​​​​  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1235581-china-new-loans-plunge-to-2009-low-in?&highlight=china
 ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Monitor – Another bank, Zhongzhi, has collapsed. It supported construction companies & they are weak.​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://techstory.in/china-deals-with-debt-blow/
- ​​ Real Estate crisis threatens banks
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://creditnews.com/markets/chinas-property-crisis-threatens-the-countrys-largest-banks/
– Evergrande in liquidation

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ 
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/29/evergrande-shares-halted-after-hong-kong-court-orders-liquidation-.html
– Zhongzhi Enterprise Group ( China’s largest shadow bank) is declaring itself “severely insolvent.” Involved in trust, wealth funds & real estate projects & management.​​ 

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://english.elpais.com/economy-and-business/2023-11-24/zhongzhi-one-of-chinas-major-shadow-banks-declares-itself-severely-insolvent.html

– Evergrande has filed for bankruptcy in the US

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.reuters.com/legal/china-evergrande-files-chapter-15-bankruptcy-us-court-filing-2023-08-17/
– Monitor as it could impact China’s banking system
– Evergrande defaulted on an 
interest payment to Australia 1st Oct 2021

 

           ​​ 

Silicon Valley Bank collapse​​ + contagion?​​  ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Updated 18 March 2023, Added:  11 March 2023)

 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor: Still ongoing impacts in US & includes the global banking system.
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ SVB, Silvergate, Signature, Credit Suisse & now First Republic
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_banking_crisis​​ 

BRICs – 5 more countries have joined  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Added:  11 March 2023)
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.cmegroup.com/openmarkets/fx/2023/Are-Threats-to-the-USDs-Role-as-a-Reserve-Currency-Real.html

 

 

All Countries– Covid19 – Corona Virus
– Monitor for business changes.

 

US vs China– Monitor Trade war
Pay attention to any escalation 

 

 

China-​​ Real Estate/Evergrande issue ​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ 
(Updated:​​ 30 March 2024,​​ 3 Feb 2024, ​​ 25 Nov 2023, 19 Aug 2023 ​​ & 26 Aug 21)
- ​​ Real Estate crisis threatens banks
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://creditnews.com/markets/chinas-property-crisis-threatens-the-countrys-largest-banks/
– Evergrande in liquidation
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/29/evergrande-shares-halted-after-hong-kong-court-orders-liquidation-.html
– Zhongzhi Enterprise Group ( China’s largest shadow bank) is declaring itself “severely insolvent.” Involved in trust, wealth funds & real estate projects & management.​​ 

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://english.elpais.com/economy-and-business/2023-11-24/zhongzhi-one-of-chinas-major-shadow-banks-declares-itself-severely-insolvent.html

– Evergrande has filed for bankruptcy in the US

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.reuters.com/legal/china-evergrande-files-chapter-15-bankruptcy-us-court-filing-2023-08-17/
– Monitor as it could impact China’s banking system
– Evergrande defaulted on an interest payment to Australia 1st Oct 2021


Goldman Sachs Analysis – Be prudent about the analysis re US economy
(22 Aug 2021)


Afghanistan – Unfolding Situation (Updated: 22 Aug 21)

 

 

 

​​ 

​​ Important Items

    – Impact: Medium Term Impact

 

 

 

US Dollar losing primacy as Reserve Currency  (Added:  23 March 2022)
   Russia demanding Roubles or Yuan instead of USD for payments.
https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1146816-the-us-dollars-global-standing-as-the-top
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/putin-says-russia-will-start-selling-gas-unfriendly-countries-roubles-2022-03-23/

 


Russia Rouble Unsteady  ​​ ​​ ​​​​ – (Added:  15h July 2023)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor ​​ -​​ impact from sanctions & war
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.forexfactory.com/search?searchid=44391641​​ 

 

 

USSR Leadership issues ​​ – Monitor (Added:  1st July 2023)

 

 

USSR/Balkin states​​ –​​ Monitor (Added 1 Oct 2023)
           ​​ Conflicts are starting to be seen​​ 

 

Banks under Scrutiny by ECB  ​​ ​​​​ – (Added:  4th December 2022)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor for limited credit causing financial problems​​ 
 ​​​​ ​​ Effects Deutsche Bank & BNP Paribas

Banks warned of​​ CRE (Commercial Real Estate) Risks  ​​​​ – (Added:  11th February 2024)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor for limited credit causing financial problems​​ 
 ​​​​ ​​ Effects Deutsche Bank & BNP Paribas
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://financialpost.com/fp-finance/banking/commercial-real-estate-contagion-spreads-to-europe
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/ecb-warns-banks-to-grasp-real-estate-risks-or-face-capital-hits-1.2033023​​ 

 

 

US-Iran Tension Escalation

USA Govt Shutdown​​ in March,​​ January?​​ November?​​ – Monitor​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Updated: 19th​​ Jan 2024, 16 Dec​​ 2023, Oct 2023, Nov 2023 )
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ ​​ https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/federal-government-shutdown-funding-11-14-23/index.html
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​  ​​ ​​​​ https://www.raymondjames.com/commentary-and-insights/economy-policy/2023/09/29/weekly-economic-commentary​​ 

 


China/Taiwan – Monitor for possible aggression
as per Chinese general saying military action is considered.

 

EU – Poland – Monitor for possible Issues (Updated: 9 Oct 2021)
   after Poland Constitutional Court decision. PolExit?

European Union Dissolving? Monitor the EU for
interstate difficulties exacerbated by the Covid19 epidemic
via EU Council meeting relationships degrading
– also monitor Germany’s Constitutional Court Ruling
for future implications – re EURO viability, EU partnerships,
& possible end of EU? More​​ info here: www.cnbc.com/


China/Hong Kong – Monitor

EU – Germany’s political situation is not settled
Additional EU Entrants possible?

Syria – Could disrupt in the markets

Libya – Geopolitical/Military escalation could affect Oil Prices

ECB – Monitor​​ statements for weakening impacts
ECB outlook is becoming more pessimistic re EU Economy
Monitor any action taken if/when QE ceases at Year End.

 

 

 

 

​​ Ongoing Items

    – Impact: Very Long Term Repercussions

 

 

 

Italy – Monitor (Updated: 17 July​​ 2022, -​​ 14 Feb 2021)
Draghi quits as PM, could still impact EU
– Monitor – Budget & Banking System
– Monitor – Possible EU Penalty & alternate currency

OPEC – Monitor (Updated: 07 July 2023) 
 – Unexpectedly dropped the price​​ 
 – considering​​ dropping USD as denomination currency
 – Influence of terrorism on production has risen.

 

German Bank (WireCard) Bankrupted – Monitor for
possible future ramifications for stability
– eg domino effect a la Lehman Brothers.

 

Karlsruhe German Constitutional​​ Court (Updated: 9 May 21)
Monitor: Decision re ECB PEPP (QE)
Could be revoked causing major impact on the German economy

 

China vs India vs Pakistan– Monitor conflicts along border.

 

 

 

 

Archive - 24th March 2024

 


MAX NewsWatch List


25th​​ March 2024​​ 

Market Open Times​​ (NY Time): 
Tokyo 8pm  –  Frankfurt 3am ​​ – ​​ London 4am ​​ – ​​ US 8am
Be careful when ​​ Daylight ​​ Saving Changes are in play
All Times are in New York Time

 

Impact

Date

Time

Cur.

News Event

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Sun Mar 24

7:50 p.m.

JPY

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Mon Mar 25

10:00 a.m.

USD

New Home Sales

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Tue Mar 26

1:00 a.m.

JPY

BOJ Core CPI y/y

 

Monitor

Tue Mar 26

3:00 a.m.

EUR

German GfK​​ Consumer Climate

 

Monitor

Tue Mar 26

Tentative

EUR

German 10-y Bond Auction

 

Under H4

Tue Mar 26

8:30 a.m.

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders m/m

 

Under H4

Tue Mar 26

8:30 a.m.

USD

Durable Goods Orders m/m

 

All TFs

Tue Mar 26

10:00 a.m.

USD

CB​​ Consumer Confidence

 

Monitor

Tue Mar 26

7:30 p.m.

AUD

MI Leading Index m/m

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Wed Mar 27

5:00 a.m.

CHF

Credit Suisse Economic Expectations

 

Monitor

Wed Mar 27

Tentative

EUR

Italian 10-y Bond Auction

 

Monitor

Wed Mar 27

6:30 a.m.

GBP

FPC​​ Meeting Minutes

 

Monitor

Wed Mar 27

6:30 a.m.

GBP

FPC Statement

 

Monitor

Wed Mar 27

10:00 a.m.

CHF

SNB Quarterly Bulletin

 

Monitor

Wed Mar 27

10:30 a.m.

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

 

Monitor

Wed Mar 27

7:50 p.m.

JPY

BOJ Summary of Opinions

 

Monitor

Wed Mar 27

8:00 p.m.

AUD

MI Inflation Expectations

 

Monitor

Wed Mar 27

8:00 p.m.

NZD

ANZ Business Confidence

 

Monitor

Wed Mar 27

8:30 p.m.

AUD

Retail Sales m/m

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

All TFs

Thu Mar 28

3:00 a.m.

GBP

Current Account

 

Monitor

Thu Mar 28

3:00 a.m.

GBP

Final GDP q/q

 

Monitor

Thu Mar 28

4:00 a.m.

CHF

KOF Economic Barometer

 

All TFs

Thu Mar 28

5:00 a.m.

EUR

M3 Money Supply y/y

 

All TFs

Thu Mar 28

8:30 a.m.

CAD

GDP m/m

 

Under H4

Thu Mar 28

8:30 a.m.

USD

Final GDP q/q

 

Monitor

Thu Mar 28

8:30 a.m.

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

Monitor

Thu Mar 28

8:30 a.m.

USD

Final GDP Price Index q/q

 

Under H4

Thu Mar 28

9:45 a.m.

USD

Chicago PMI

 

Monitor

Thu Mar 28

10:30 a.m.

USD

Natural Gas Storage

 

Holiday

Thu Mar 28

All Day

NZD

Bank Holiday

 

Holiday

Thu Mar 28

All Day

AUD

Bank Holiday

 

Monitor

Thu Mar 28

7:30 p.m.

JPY

Tokyo Core CPI y/y

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Holiday

Fri Mar 29

All Day

CHF

Bank Holiday

 

Holiday

Fri Mar 29

All Day

EUR

German Bank Holiday

 

Holiday

Fri Mar 29

All Day

GBP

Bank Holiday

 

Holiday

Fri Mar 29

All Day

CAD

Bank Holiday

 

All TFs

Fri Mar 29

8:30 a.m.

USD

Core PCE Price Index m/m

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Daylight

Sat Mar 30

9:00 p.m.

CHF

Daylight Saving Time Shift

 

Daylight

Sat Mar 30

9:00 p.m.

EUR

Daylight Saving Time Shift

 

Daylight

Sat​​ Mar 30

9:00 p.m.

GBP

Daylight Saving Time Shift

 

Monitor

Sat Mar 30

9:30 p.m.

CNY

Manufacturing PMI

 

Monitor

Sat Mar 30

9:30 p.m.

CNY

Non-Manufacturing PMI.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


“Top Pairs” Lists


25th​​ March 2024

 

The Top Pairs below are ones that have moved the most in the past 4 weeks.
They are listed in $ order: largest $ to smallest $ movers.

Pick the “low-hanging fruit” i.e. pairs that have moved the​​ most,​​ 
as they are more likely to move this week.

 

Order

Pair

Avg Daily​​ 
Pip Range

Avg Daily
 ​​​​ $ Range ​​ 

Comment 

1

GBPJPY

118

779

Suggested

Best Pairs

2

GBPUSD

74

745

3

GBPNZD

123

736

4

GBPAUD

109

712

5

CHFJPY

105

696

6

USDJPY

102

675

7

EURJPY

102

674

8

USDCHF

57

630

9

EURNZD

103

620

10

GBPCHF

56

620

11

EURAUD

93

608

Less stressful?​​ 

12

GBPCAD

79

580

Maybe less profitable,

13

EURUSD

57

572

maybe easier trades?

14

AUDUSD

52

520

 

15

NZDUSD

49

491

 

 

16

USDCAD

66

482

 

17

EURCAD

63

462

 

 

18

CADJPY

69

458

 

19

EURCHF

41

454

​​ 

20

AUDCHF

37

410

​​ 

21

CADCHF

36

403

​​ 

22

AUDJPY

60

397

Poorer performers:

23

NZDCHF

36

397

Much less volatility &

24

NZDJPY

58

384

likely less profit from

25

EURGBP

29

361

these pairs based on

26

NZDCAD

49

358

their past performance

27

AUDCAD

46

339

 

28

AUDNZD

41

243

 

#E5F8FF

 

 

Short List of Each Day’s Top Pairs

Use these suggested pairs to help limit the pairs you monitor each day.
These pairs use the News Events to help narrow the selection.
MAX Courses will teach you how to make​​ this table for yourself.

Pairs at the top have more important News Events (e.g. Hi Impact) than lower pairs.

 

 

Day

Mon 25th ​​​​ March

Tues 26

Wed 27

Thur 28

Fri 29

 

 

1st​​ 
Choices

GBPJPY or GBPUSD

GBPUSD or USDJPY

GBPJPY or GBPUSD

GBPUSD or GBPJPY

Easter Friday​​ GBPUSD or USDJPY

GBPNZD or GBPAUD

USDCHF or GBPJPY

GBPNZD or GBPAUD

GBPNZD or GBPAUD

USDCHF or GBPJPY

 

2nd​​ 
Choices

CHFJPY or USDJPY

GBPNZD or GBPAUD

CHFJPY or USDJPY

EURJPY, GBPCAD​​ or USDCHF

GBPNZD or GBPAUD

 

 

 

 

Smooth Movers


These pairs might be less volatile & easier to trade.

 

 

 

Forex Pairs


If you are uncomfortable with the faster more volatile pairs above, you could consider monitoring/trading these ones instead.


Less money, but possibly less volatility & stress.

 

 

Indices


Consider trading these indices, too.
Be careful, take your time & make certain you know how they move. They use points & fractions of points.

Some brokers allow trading the Indices by CFDs, instead of Futures.​​ 

Check with your broker for more info.

 

  • EURAUD

  • GBPCAD

  • EURUSD

  • DAX

  • DOW Jones

  • NASDAQ

  • S&P 500

  • FTS100

  • NK225

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Longer Term Issues​​ 


25th​​ March 2024


Last modified ​​ –​​ Japan Re: negative interest​​ Ended​​  ​​ ​​​​ 18th​​ March​​ 2024  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ 

​​ 

​​ Critical Items

    – Impact: Possible Immediate Impact

 

   ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ 

 

Japan – Monitor ​​ Accomplished: ​​ Mon 18th​​ Mar: BOJ Policy Rate now +0.1% from -0.1%  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ 
https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1274087-bank-of-japans-policy-shift-ushers-in-a?&highlight=japan
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Japan is set to end its decades-long negative interest rates policy​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1273141-japan-on-cusp-of-ending-its-negative-interest?&highlight=japan
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Added 16 March 2024)

 


All Countries– Inflation ​​ ​​ (Added:  30th April 2023)
–​​ Closely monitor the Central​​ Banks (Fed & others) for​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Recession mitigation & Interest Rate Changes.

 

USSR/Ukraine – Monitor (Updated: 18th Sept 2022,24 Feb 2022 & 2021))

 


Israel & Iran & Gaza/Hamas – Monitor – Conflict Escalation & Possible Nuclear Arsenal

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​  (Update: 14 Oct 2023, ​​ 22 Aug 21)
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Monitor - ​​ Red Sea skirmishes ​​ ​​ (Added: ​​ 23rd​​ Dec 2023)

China – possible deflation setting up​​  ​​ ​​ ​​​​ –​​ (Updated: 6th​​ Jan 2024, 16 Dec 2023, Added:  13th Aug 2023)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor ​​ - impact on trading partners​​ - esp Aus & NZ

 ​​ ​​​​  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1235581-china-new-loans-plunge-to-2009-low-in?&highlight=china
 ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Monitor – Another bank, Zhongzhi, has collapsed. It supported construction companies & they are weak.​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://techstory.in/china-deals-with-debt-blow/

 

           ​​ 

Silicon Valley Bank collapse​​ + contagion?​​  ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Updated 18 March 2023, Added:  11 March 2023)

 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor: Still​​ ongoing impacts in US & includes the global banking system.
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ SVB, Silvergate, Signature, Credit Suisse & now First Republic
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_banking_crisis​​ 

BRICs – 5 more countries have joined  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Added:  11 March 2023)
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.cmegroup.com/openmarkets/fx/2023/Are-Threats-to-the-USDs-Role-as-a-Reserve-Currency-Real.html

 

 

All Countries– Covid19 – Corona Virus
– Monitor for​​ business changes.

 

US vs China– Monitor Trade war
Pay attention to any escalation 

 

 

China- Evergrande issue  (Updated: 3 Feb 2024, ​​ 25 Nov 2023, 19 Aug 2023 ​​ & 26 Aug 21)
– Evergrande in liquidation
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/29/evergrande-shares-halted-after-hong-kong-court-orders-liquidation-.html
– Zhongzhi Enterprise Group ( China’s largest shadow bank) is declaring itself “severely insolvent.” Involved in trust, wealth funds & real estate projects & management.​​ 

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://english.elpais.com/economy-and-business/2023-11-24/zhongzhi-one-of-chinas-major-shadow-banks-declares-itself-severely-insolvent.html

– Evergrande has filed for bankruptcy in the US

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.reuters.com/legal/china-evergrande-files-chapter-15-bankruptcy-us-court-filing-2023-08-17/
– Monitor as it could impact China’s banking system
– Evergrande defaulted on an interest payment to Australia 1st Oct 2021


Goldman Sachs Analysis – Be prudent about the analysis re US economy
(22 Aug 2021)


Afghanistan – Unfolding​​ Situation (Updated: 22 Aug 21)

 

 

 

​​ 

​​ Important Items

    – Impact: Medium Term Impact

 

 

 

US Dollar losing primacy as Reserve Currency  (Added:  23 March 2022)
   Russia demanding Roubles or Yuan instead of USD for payments.
https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1146816-the-us-dollars-global-standing-as-the-top
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/putin-says-russia-will-start-selling-gas-unfriendly-countries-roubles-2022-03-23/

 


Russia Rouble Unsteady  ​​ ​​ ​​​​ – (Added:  15h July 2023)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor ​​ -​​ impact from sanctions & war
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.forexfactory.com/search?searchid=44391641​​ 

 

 

USSR Leadership issues ​​ – Monitor (Added:  1st July 2023)

 

 

USSR/Balkin states​​ –​​ Monitor (Added 1 Oct 2023)
           ​​ Conflicts are starting to be seen​​ 

 

Banks under Scrutiny by ECB  ​​ ​​​​ – (Added:  4th December 2022)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor for limited credit causing financial problems​​ 
 ​​​​ ​​ Effects Deutsche Bank & BNP Paribas

Banks warned of​​ CRE (Commercial Real Estate) Risks  ​​​​ – (Added:  11th February 2024)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor for limited credit causing financial problems​​ 
 ​​​​ ​​ Effects Deutsche Bank & BNP Paribas
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://financialpost.com/fp-finance/banking/commercial-real-estate-contagion-spreads-to-europe
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/ecb-warns-banks-to-grasp-real-estate-risks-or-face-capital-hits-1.2033023​​ 

 

 

US-Iran Tension Escalation

USA Govt Shutdown​​ in March,​​ January?​​ November?​​ – Monitor​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Updated: 19th​​ Jan 2024, 16 Dec​​ 2023, Oct 2023, Nov 2023 )
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ ​​ https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/federal-government-shutdown-funding-11-14-23/index.html
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​  ​​ ​​​​ https://www.raymondjames.com/commentary-and-insights/economy-policy/2023/09/29/weekly-economic-commentary​​ 

 


China/Taiwan – Monitor for possible aggression
as per Chinese general saying military action is considered.

 

EU – Poland – Monitor for possible Issues (Updated: 9 Oct 2021)
   after Poland Constitutional Court decision. PolExit?

European Union Dissolving? Monitor the EU for
interstate difficulties exacerbated by the Covid19 epidemic
via EU Council meeting relationships degrading
– also monitor Germany’s Constitutional Court Ruling
for future implications – re EURO viability, EU partnerships,
& possible end of EU? More​​ info here: www.cnbc.com/


China/Hong Kong – Monitor

EU – Germany’s political situation is not settled
Additional EU Entrants possible?

Syria – Could disrupt in the markets

Libya – Geopolitical/Military escalation could affect Oil Prices

ECB – Monitor​​ statements for weakening impacts
ECB outlook is becoming more pessimistic re EU Economy
Monitor any action taken if/when QE ceases at Year End.

 

 

 

 

​​ Ongoing Items

    – Impact: Very Long Term Repercussions

 

 

 

Italy – Monitor (Updated: 17 July​​ 2022, -​​ 14 Feb 2021)
Draghi quits as PM, could still impact EU
– Monitor – Budget & Banking System
– Monitor – Possible EU Penalty & alternate currency

OPEC – Monitor (Updated: 07 July 2023) 
 – Unexpectedly dropped the price​​ 
 – considering​​ dropping USD as denomination currency
 – Influence of terrorism on production has risen.

 

German Bank (WireCard) Bankrupted – Monitor for
possible future ramifications for stability
– eg domino effect a la Lehman Brothers.

 

Karlsruhe German Constitutional​​ Court (Updated: 9 May 21)
Monitor: Decision re ECB PEPP (QE)
Could be revoked causing major impact on the German economy

 

China vs India vs Pakistan– Monitor conflicts along border.

 

 

 

 

Archive - 17th March 2024

 


MAX NewsWatch List


17th​​ March 2024​​ 

Market Open Times​​ (NY Time): 
Tokyo​​ ?pm  –  Frankfurt​​ 3am ​​ – ​​ London​​ 4am ​​ – ​​ US 8am
Be careful when ​​ Daylight ​​ Saving Changes are in play
All Times are in New York Time.

 

Impact

Date

Time

Cur.

News Event

 

 

 

 

 

 

N.A.

Sun Mar 17

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Mon Mar 18

6:00 a.m.

EUR

Final Core CPI y/y

 

Monitor

Mon Mar 18

6:00 a.m.

EUR

Final CPI y/y

 

All TFs

Mon Mar 18

6:00 a.m.

EUR

Trade Balance

 

Hi Impact

Mon Mar 18

Tentative

JPY

Monetary Policy​​ Statement

 

Hi Impact

Mon Mar 18

Tentative

JPY

BOJ Policy Rate

 

Hi Impact

Mon Mar 18

11:30 p.m.

AUD

Cash Rate

 

Hi Impact

Mon Mar 18

11:30 p.m.

AUD

RBA Rate Statement

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hi Impact

Tue Mar 19

Tentative

JPY

BOJ Press Conference

 

All TFs

Tue Mar 19

3:00​​ a.m.

CHF

Trade Balance

 

Under H4

Tue Mar 19

6:00 a.m.

EUR

German ZEW Economic Sentiment

 

Under H4

Tue Mar 19

6:00 a.m.

EUR

ZEW Economic Sentiment

 

All TFs

Tue Mar 19

8:30 a.m.

CAD

CPI m/m

 

All TFs

Tue Mar 19

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Core CPI m/m

 

Monitor

Tue Mar 19

8:30 a.m.

USD

Housing Starts

 

All TFs

Tue Mar 19

Tentative

NZD

GDT Price Index

 

All TFs

Tue Mar 19

5:45 p.m.

NZD

Current Account

 

Holiday

Tue Mar 19

All Day

JPY

Bank Holiday

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Wed Mar 20

3:00 a.m.

GBP

CPI y/y

 

Monitor

Wed Mar 20

3:00 a.m.

GBP

Core CPI y/y

 

Monitor

Wed Mar 20

Tentative

EUR

German 30-y Bond Auction

 

Monitor

Wed Mar 20

10:30 a.m.

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

 

Monitor

Wed Mar 20

1:30 p.m.

CAD

BOC Summary of Deliberations

 

Hi Impact

Wed Mar 20

2:00 p.m.

USD

Federal Funds Rate

 

Hi​​ Impact

Wed Mar 20

2:00 p.m.

USD

FOMC Economic Projections

 

Hi Impact

Wed Mar 20

2:00 p.m.

USD

FOMC Statement

 

Hi Impact

Wed Mar 20

2:30 p.m.

USD

FOMC Press Conference

 

All TFs

Wed Mar 20

5:45 p.m.

NZD

GDP q/q

 

All TFs

Wed Mar 20

7:50 p.m.

JPY

Trade​​ Balance

 

Under H4

Wed Mar 20

8:30 p.m.

AUD

Employment Change

 

Under H4

Wed Mar 20

8:30 p.m.

AUD

Unemployment Rate

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hi Impact

Thu Mar 21

4:30 a.m.

CHF

SNB Monetary Policy Assessment

 

Hi Impact

Thu Mar 21

4:30 a.m.

CHF

SNB Policy Rate

 

Hi Impact

Thu​​ Mar 21

5:00 a.m.

CHF

SNB Press Conference

 

Monitor

Thu Mar 21

5:00 a.m.

EUR

Flash Manufacturing PMI

 

Monitor

Thu Mar 21

5:00 a.m.

EUR

Flash Services PMI

 

All TFs

Thu Mar 21

5:00 a.m.

EUR

Current Account

 

Monitor

Thu Mar 21

5:00 a.m.

EUR

ECB​​ Economic Bulletin

 

Hi Impact

Thu Mar 21

8:00 a.m.

GBP

Monetary Policy Summary

 

Hi Impact

Thu Mar 21

8:00 a.m.

GBP

MPC Official Bank Rate Votes

 

Hi Impact

Thu Mar 21

8:00 a.m.

GBP

Official Bank Rate

 

Monitor

Thu Mar 21

8:30 a.m.

USD

Unemployment​​ Claims

 

Under H4

Thu Mar 21

8:30 a.m.

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

 

All TFs

Thu Mar 21

8:30 a.m.

USD

Current Account

 

Monitor

Thu Mar 21

9:45 a.m.

USD

Flash Manufacturing PMI

 

Monitor

Thu Mar 21

9:45 a.m.

USD

Flash Services PMI

 

Monitor

Thu Mar 21

10:00 a.m.

USD

Existing Home Sales

 

Monitor

Thu Mar 21

10:30 a.m.

USD

Natural Gas Storage

 

All TFs

Thu Mar 21

5:45 p.m.

NZD

Trade Balance

 

Monitor

Thu Mar 21

7:30 p.m.

JPY

National Core CPI y/y

 

Monitor

Thu Mar 21

8:01 p.m.

GBP

GfK Consumer​​ Confidence

 

Monitor

Thu Mar 21

8:30 p.m.

AUD

RBA Financial Stability Review

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Under H4

Fri Mar 22

3:00 a.m.

GBP

Retail Sales m/m

 

Monitor

Fri Mar 22

5:00 a.m.

EUR

German ifo Business Climate

 

Under H4

Fri Mar 22

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Core Retail Sales m/m

 

Under H4

Fri Mar 22

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Retail Sales m/m

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

N.A.

Sat Mar 23

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

#E5F8FF

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


“Top Pairs” Lists


17th​​ March 2024

 

The Top Pairs below are ones that have moved the most in the past 4 weeks.
They are listed in $ order: largest $ to smallest $ movers.

Pick the “low-hanging fruit” i.e. pairs that have moved the​​ most,​​ 
as they are more likely to move this week.

 

Order

Pair

Avg Daily​​ 
Pip Range

Avg Daily
 ​​​​ $ Range ​​ 

Comment 

1

GBPJPY

103

690

Suggested

Best Pairs

2

GBPNZD

111

675

3

GBPAUD

101

662

4

EURJPY

97

651

5

GBPUSD

64

640

6

CHFJPY

94

632

7

USDJPY

88

588

8

EURNZD

95

581

9

EURAUD

85

558

10

GBPCAD

72

529

11

USDCHF

46

520

Less stressful?​​ 

12

GBPCHF

45

513

Maybe less profitable,

13

EURUSD

50

496

maybe easier trades?

14

AUDUSD

46

456

 

15

NZDUSD

42

422

 

 

16

USDCAD

57

419

 

17

CADJPY

61

412

 

 

18

EURCAD

56

412

 

19

EURCHF

36

403

​​ 

20

NZDJPY

55

370

​​ 

21

AUDJPY

55

369

​​ 

22

AUDCHF

32

360

Poorer performers:

23

NZDCHF

31

352

Much less volatility &

24

NZDCAD

44

324

likely less profit from

25

CADCHF

28

316

these pairs based on

26

EURGBP

25

313

their past performance

27

AUDCAD

41

306

 

28

AUDNZD

37

225

 

#E5F8FF

 

 

Short List of Each Day’s Top Pairs

Use these suggested pairs to help limit the pairs you monitor each day.
These pairs use the News Events to help narrow the​​ selection.
MAX Courses will teach you how to make this table for yourself.

Pairs at the top have more important News Events (e.g. Hi Impact) than lower pairs.

 

 

Day

Mon 18th ​​​​ March

Tues 19

Wed 20

Thur 21

Fri 22

 

 

1st​​ 
Choices

EURJPY or EURNZD

EURJPY or CHFJPY

JPY Holiday​​ GBPUSD or USDJPY

GBPJPY or GBPNZD

GBPNZD or GBPCAD​​ 

EURAUD or GBPJPY

EURAUD or GBPJPY

GBPNZD or EURNZD

GBPAUD, CHFJPY or GBPCAD

GBPJPY or GBPAUD

 

2nd​​ 
Choices

GBPNZD or GBPAUD

GBPAUD, USDJPY, EURNZD or GBPCAD
JPY​​ Holiday

GBPJPY or GBPAUD

EURJPY, GBPUSD or USDJPY

GBPUSD or EURNZD

 

 

 

 

Smooth Movers


These pairs might be less volatile & easier to trade.

 

 

 

Forex Pairs


If you are uncomfortable with the faster more volatile pairs above, you could consider​​ monitoring/trading these ones instead.


Less money, but possibly less volatility & stress.

 

 

Indices


Consider trading these indices, too.
Be careful, take your time & make certain you know how they move. They use points & fractions of points.
Some brokers​​ allow trading the Indices by CFDs, instead of Futures.​​ 
Check with your broker for more info.

 

  • USDCHF

  • GBPCHF

  • EURUSD

  • DAX

  • DOW Jones

  • NASDAQ

  • S&P 500

  • FTS100

  • NK225

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Longer Term Issues​​ 


17th​​ March 2024


Last​​ modified ​​​​ –​​ Japan​​ Re: negative interest rates policy ending?​​ ​​ ​​ 16th March 2024​​  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ 

​​ 

​​ Critical Items

    – Impact: Possible Immediate Impact

 

   ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ 

 

Japan – Monitor -​​ Japan is set to end its decades-long negative interest rates policy​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1273141-japan-on-cusp-of-ending-its-negative-interest?&highlight=japan
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Added 16 March 2024)

 


All Countries– Inflation ​​ ​​ (Added:  30th April 2023)
–​​ Closely monitor the Central Banks (Fed & others) for​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Recession mitigation & Interest Rate Changes.

 

USSR/Ukraine – Monitor (Updated: 18th Sept 2022,24 Feb 2022 & 2021))

 


Israel & Iran & Gaza/Hamas – Monitor – Conflict Escalation & Possible Nuclear Arsenal

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​  (Update: 14 Oct 2023, ​​ 22 Aug 21)
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Monitor - ​​ Red Sea skirmishes ​​ ​​ (Added: ​​ 23rd​​ Dec 2023)

China – possible deflation setting up​​  ​​ ​​ ​​​​ –​​ (Updated: 6th​​ Jan 2024, 16 Dec 2023, Added:  13th Aug 2023)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor ​​ - impact on trading partners​​ - esp Aus & NZ

 ​​ ​​​​  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1235581-china-new-loans-plunge-to-2009-low-in?&highlight=china
 ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Monitor – Another bank, Zhongzhi, has collapsed. It supported construction companies & they are weak.​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://techstory.in/china-deals-with-debt-blow/

 

           ​​ 

Silicon Valley Bank collapse​​ + contagion?​​  ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Updated 18 March 2023, Added:  11 March 2023)

 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor: Still​​ ongoing impacts in US & includes the global banking system.
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ SVB, Silvergate, Signature, Credit Suisse & now First Republic
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_banking_crisis​​ 

BRICs – 5 more countries have joined  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Added:  11 March 2023)
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.cmegroup.com/openmarkets/fx/2023/Are-Threats-to-the-USDs-Role-as-a-Reserve-Currency-Real.html

 

 

All Countries– Covid19 – Corona Virus
– Monitor for business changes.

 

US vs China– Monitor Trade war
Pay attention to any escalation 

 

 

China- Evergrande issue  (Updated: 3 Feb 2024, ​​ 25 Nov 2023, 19 Aug 2023 ​​ & 26 Aug 21)
– Evergrande in liquidation
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/29/evergrande-shares-halted-after-hong-kong-court-orders-liquidation-.html
– Zhongzhi Enterprise Group ( China’s largest shadow bank) is declaring itself “severely insolvent.” Involved in trust, wealth funds & real estate projects & management.​​ 

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://english.elpais.com/economy-and-business/2023-11-24/zhongzhi-one-of-chinas-major-shadow-banks-declares-itself-severely-insolvent.html

– Evergrande has filed for bankruptcy in the US

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.reuters.com/legal/china-evergrande-files-chapter-15-bankruptcy-us-court-filing-2023-08-17/
– Monitor as it could impact China’s banking system
– Evergrande defaulted on an interest payment to Australia 1st Oct 2021


Goldman Sachs Analysis – Be prudent about the analysis re US economy
(22 Aug 2021)


Afghanistan – Unfolding Situation (Updated: 22 Aug 21)

 

 

 

​​ 

​​ Important Items

    – Impact: Medium Term Impact

 

 

 

US Dollar losing primacy as Reserve Currency  (Added:  23 March 2022)
   Russia demanding Roubles or Yuan​​ instead of USD for payments.
https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1146816-the-us-dollars-global-standing-as-the-top
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/putin-says-russia-will-start-selling-gas-unfriendly-countries-roubles-2022-03-23/

 


Russia Rouble Unsteady  ​​ ​​ ​​​​ – (Added:  15h July 2023)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor ​​ - impact from sanctions & war
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.forexfactory.com/search?searchid=44391641​​ 

 

 

USSR Leadership issues ​​ – Monitor (Added:  1st July 2023)

 

 

USSR/Balkin states​​ – Monitor (Added 1 Oct 2023)
           ​​ Conflicts are starting to be seen​​ 

 

Banks under Scrutiny by ECB​​  ​​ ​​​​ – (Added:  4th December 2022)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor for limited credit causing financial problems​​ 
 ​​​​ ​​ Effects Deutsche Bank & BNP Paribas

Banks warned of CRE (Commercial Real Estate) Risks  ​​​​ – (Added:  11th February 2024)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor for limited credit causing financial problems​​ 
 ​​​​ ​​ Effects Deutsche Bank & BNP Paribas
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://financialpost.com/fp-finance/banking/commercial-real-estate-contagion-spreads-to-europe
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/ecb-warns-banks-to-grasp-real-estate-risks-or-face-capital-hits-1.2033023​​ 

 

 

US-Iran Tension Escalation

USA Govt Shutdown​​ in March,​​ January?​​ November?​​ – Monitor​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Updated: 19th​​ Jan 2024, 16 Dec 2023, Oct 2023, Nov 2023 )
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ ​​ https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/federal-government-shutdown-funding-11-14-23/index.html
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.raymondjames.com/commentary-and-insights/economy-policy/2023/09/29/weekly-economic-commentary​​ 

 


China/Taiwan – Monitor for possible aggression
as per Chinese general saying military action is considered.

 

EU – Poland – Monitor for possible Issues (Updated: 9 Oct 2021)
   after Poland Constitutional Court decision. PolExit?

European Union Dissolving? Monitor the EU for
interstate difficulties exacerbated​​ by the Covid19 epidemic
via EU Council meeting relationships degrading
– also monitor Germany’s Constitutional Court Ruling
for future implications – re EURO viability, EU partnerships,
& possible end of EU? More info here: www.cnbc.com/


China/Hong Kong – Monitor

EU – Germany’s political situation is not settled
Additional EU Entrants possible?

Syria – Could disrupt in the markets

Libya – Geopolitical/Military escalation could affect Oil Prices

ECB – Monitor statements for weakening impacts
ECB​​ outlook is becoming more pessimistic re EU Economy
Monitor any action taken if/when QE ceases at Year End.

 

 

 

 

​​ Ongoing Items

    – Impact: Very Long Term Repercussions

 

 

 

Italy – Monitor (Updated: 17 July 2022, -​​ 14 Feb 2021)
Draghi quits as PM,​​ could still impact EU
– Monitor – Budget & Banking System
– Monitor – Possible EU Penalty & alternate currency

OPEC – Monitor (Updated: 07 July 2023) 
 – Unexpectedly dropped the price​​ 
 – considering dropping USD as denomination currency
 –​​ Influence of terrorism on production has risen.

 

German Bank (WireCard) Bankrupted – Monitor for
possible future ramifications for stability
– eg domino effect a la Lehman Brothers.

 

Karlsruhe German Constitutional Court (Updated: 9 May 21)
Monitor: Decision re ECB PEPP (QE)
Could be revoked causing major impact on the German economy

 

China vs India vs Pakistan– Monitor conflicts along border.

 

 

 

 

Archive - 10th March 2024


MAX NewsWatch List


10th​​ March 2024

Market Open Times​​ (NY Time): 
Tokyo 7pm  –  Frankfurt 2am ​​ – ​​ London 3am ​​ – ​​ US 8am
Be careful when ​​ Daylight ​​ Saving Changes are in play
All Times are in New York Time.

Impact

Date

Time

Cur.

News Event

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Sun Mar 10

3:00 a.m.

CAD

Daylight Saving Time Shift

Monitor

Sun Mar 10

3:00 a.m.

USD

Daylight Saving Time Shift

Monitor

Sun Mar 10

7:50 p.m.

JPY

Final GDP q/q

Monitor

Sun Mar 10

7:50 p.m.

JPY

Final GDP Price Index y/y

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Mon Mar 11

11th-15th

CNY

New Loans

Monitor

Mon Mar 11

11th-15th

CNY

M2 Money Supply y/y

Monitor

Mon Mar 11

All Day

EUR

Eurogroup Meetings

Monitor

Mon Mar 11

8:30 p.m.

AUD

NAB Business Confidence

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Tue Mar 12

3:00 a.m.

EUR

German Final CPI m/m

Monitor

Tue Mar 12

3:00 a.m.

GBP

Average Earnings Index 3m/y

Monitor

Tue Mar 12

All Day

EUR

ECOFIN Meetings

All TFs

Tue Mar 12

8:30 a.m.

USD

Core CPI m/m

All TFs

Tue Mar 12

8:30 a.m.

USD

CPI m/m

Monitor

Tue Mar 12

8:30 a.m.

USD

CPI y/y

Monitor

Tue Mar 12

1:01 p.m.

USD

10-y Bond Auction

Monitor

Tue Mar 12

2:00 p.m.

USD

Federal Budget Balance

 

 

 

 

 

All TFs

Wed Mar 13

3:00 a.m.

GBP

GDP m/m

Under H4

Wed Mar 13

3:00 a.m.

GBP

Industrial Production m/m

Under H4

Wed Mar 13

3:00 a.m.

GBP

Manufacturing Production m/m

Monitor

Wed Mar 13

Tentative

GBP

10-y Bond Auction

Monitor

Wed Mar 13

Tentative

EUR

German 10-y Bond Auction

Under H4

Wed Mar 13

6:00 a.m.

EUR

Industrial Production m/m

Monitor

Wed Mar 13

Tentative

GBP

NIESR GDP Estimate

Monitor

Wed Mar 13

10:30 a.m.

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

Monitor

Wed Mar 13

1:01 p.m.

USD

30-y Bond Auction

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Thu Mar 14

3:30 a.m.

CHF

PPI m/m

Under H4

Thu Mar 14

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Manufacturing Sales m/m

Monitor

Thu Mar 14

8:30 a.m.

USD

Core PPI m/m

Under H4

Thu Mar 14

8:30 a.m.

USD

Core Retail Sales m/m

Monitor

Thu Mar 14

8:30 a.m.

USD

PPI m/m

Under H4

Thu Mar 14

8:30 a.m.

USD

Retail Sales m/m

Monitor

Thu Mar 14

8:30 a.m.

USD

Unemployment Claims

Monitor

Thu Mar 14

10:30 a.m.

USD

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Fri Mar 15

5:30 a.m.

GBP

Consumer Inflation Expectations

Monitor

Fri Mar 15

8:15 a.m.

CAD

Housing Starts

Under H4

Fri Mar 15

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Wholesale Sales m/m

Under H4

Fri Mar 15

9:15 a.m.

USD

Industrial Production m/m

Under H4

Fri Mar 15

10:00 a.m.

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

Under H4

Fri Mar 15

10:00 a.m.

USD

Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations

 

 

 

 

 

N.A.

Sat Mar 16

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

#E5F8FF

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


“Top Pairs” Lists


10th​​ March 2024

 

The Top Pairs below are ones that have moved the most in the past 4 weeks.
They are listed in $ order: largest $ to smallest $ movers.

Pick the “low-hanging fruit” i.e. pairs that have moved the​​ most,​​ 
as they are more likely to move this week.

 

Order

Pair

Avg Daily​​ 
Pip Range

Avg Daily
 ​​​​ $ Range ​​ 

Comment 

1

GBPNZD

123

760

Suggested

Best Pairs

2

GBPAUD

113

746

3

GBPJPY

101

690

4

GBPUSD

68

676

5

CHFJPY

90

614

6

EURNZD

99

611

7

EURAUD

91

602

8

EURJPY

88

597

9

GBPCAD

80

595

10

USDCHF

52

592

11

GBPCHF

52

592

Less stressful?​​ 

12

USDJPY

84

571

Maybe less profitable,

13

EURUSD

54

537

maybe easier trades?

14

AUDUSD

49

490

 

15

EURCAD

63

469

 

 

16

USDCAD

62

459

 

17

NZDUSD

45

450

 

 

18

EURCHF

38

434

 

19

CADJPY

58

392

​​ 

20

NZDJPY

57

387

​​ 

21

AUDCHF

33

377

​​ 

22

NZDCHF

33

375

Poorer performers:

23

AUDJPY

54

369

Much less volatility &

24

CADCHF

31

351

likely less profit from

25

EURGBP

27

348

these pairs based on

26

NZDCAD

47

347

their past performance

27

AUDCAD

43

322

 

28

AUDNZD

40

244

 

#E5F8FF

 

 

Short List of Each Day’s Top Pairs

Use these suggested pairs to help limit the pairs you monitor each day.
These pairs use the News Events to help narrow the selection.
MAX Courses will teach you how to make​​ this table for yourself.

Pairs at the top have more important News Events (e.g. Hi Impact) than lower pairs.

 

 

Day

Mon 11th ​​​​ March

Tues 12

Wed 13

Thur 14

Fri 15

 

 

1st​​ 
Choices

GBPNZD or GBPAUD

GBPUSD or USDCHF

GBPNZD or GBPAUD

GBPUSD or GBPCAD

GBPUSD or GBPCAD

GBPJPY or GBPUSD

GBPNZD or GBPAUD

GBPJPY or GBPUSD

USDCHF or GBPNZD

USDCHF or GBPNZD

 

2nd​​ 
Choices

CHFJPY or EURNZD

GBPJPY or GBPUSD

EURNZD, EURAUD or EURJPY

GBPAUD or GBPJPY

GBPAUD or GBPJPY

 

 

 

 

 

Smooth Movers


These pairs might be less volatile & easier to trade.

 

 

 

Forex Pairs


If you are uncomfortable with the faster more volatile pairs above, you could consider monitoring/trading these ones instead.


Less money, but possibly less volatility & stress.

 

 

Indices


Consider trading these indices, too.
Be careful, take your time & make certain you know how they move. They use points & fractions of points.

Some brokers allow trading the Indices by CFDs, instead of Futures.​​ 

Check with your broker for more info.

 

  • GBPCHF

  • USDJPY

  • EURUSD

  • DAX

  • DOW Jones

  • NASDAQ

  • S&P 500

  • FTS100

  • NK225

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Archive - 3rd March 2024


MAX NewsWatch List


3rd​​ March 2024

Market Open Times​​ (NY Time): 
Tokyo 7pm  –  Frankfurt 2am ​​ – ​​ London 3am ​​ – ​​ US 8am
Be careful when ​​ Daylight ​​ Saving Changes are in play
All Times are in New York Time.

Impact

Date

Time

Cur.

News Event

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Sun Mar 3

7:00 p.m.

AUD

MI Inflation Gauge m/m

 

 

 

 

 

All TFs

Mon Mar 4

2:30 a.m.

CHF

CPI m/m

Monitor

Mon Mar 4

6:30 p.m.

JPY

Tokyo Core CPI y/y

All TFs

Mon Mar 4

7:30 p.m.

AUD

Current Account

Monitor

Mon Mar 4

8:45 p.m.

CNY

Caixin Services PMI

Monitor

Mon Mar 4

10:35 p.m.

JPY

10-y Bond Auction

 

 

 

 

 

All TFs

Tue Mar 5

Tentative

NZD

GDT Price Index

Monitor

Tue Mar 5

10:00 a.m.

USD

ISM Services PMI

All TFs

Tue Mar 5

7:30 p.m.

AUD

GDP q/q

 

 

 

 

 

Under H4

Wed Mar 6

4:30 a.m.

GBP

Construction PMI

Under H4

Wed Mar 6

8:15 a.m.

USD

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

Hi Impact

Wed Mar 6

9:45 a.m.

CAD

BOC Rate Statement

Hi Impact

Wed Mar 6

9:45 a.m.

CAD

Overnight Rate

Monitor

Wed Mar 6

10:00 a.m.

USD

Fed Chair Powell Testifies

Hi Impact

Wed Mar 6

10:30 a.m.

CAD

BOC Press Conference

Monitor

Wed Mar 6

10:30 a.m.

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

Monitor

Wed Mar 6

2:00 p.m.

USD

Beige Book

Monitor

Wed Mar 6

Tentative

CNY

Trade Balance

Monitor

Wed Mar 6

Tentative

CNY

USD-Denominated Trade Balance

Monitor

Wed Mar 6

10:35 p.m.

JPY

30-y Bond Auction

 

 

 

 

 

Under H4

Thu Mar 7

2:00 a.m.

GBP

Halifax HPI m/m

Monitor

Thu Mar 7

Tentative

EUR

Spanish 10-y Bond Auction

Monitor

Thu Mar 7

Tentative

EUR

French 10-y Bond Auction

Hi Impact

Thu Mar 7

8:15 a.m.

EUR

Main Refinancing Rate

Hi Impact

Thu Mar 7

8:15 a.m.

EUR

Monetary Policy Statement

All TFs

Thu Mar 7

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Trade Balance

All TFs

Thu Mar 7

8:30 a.m.

USD

Trade Balance

Hi Impact

Thu Mar 7

8:45 a.m.

EUR

ECB Press Conference

Monitor

Thu Mar 7

10:00 a.m.

USD

Fed Chair Powell Testifies

Monitor

Thu Mar 7

10:30 a.m.

USD

Natural Gas Storage

All TFs

Thu Mar 7

6:50 p.m.

JPY

Current Account

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Fri Mar 8

12:00 a.m.

JPY

Economy Watchers Sentiment

Monitor

Fri Mar 8

8th-15th

CNY

New Loans

Monitor

Fri Mar 8

8th-15th

CNY

M2 Money Supply y/y

Under H4

Fri Mar 8

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Employment Change

Under H4

Fri Mar 8

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Unemployment Rate

Hi Impact

Fri Mar 8

8:30 a.m.

USD

Average Hourly Earnings m/m

Hi Impact

Fri Mar 8

8:30 a.m.

USD

Non-Farm Employment Change

Hi Impact

Fri Mar 8

8:30 a.m.

USD

Unemployment Rate

Monitor

Fri Mar 8

8:30 p.m.

CNY

CPI y/y

Monitor

Fri Mar 8

8:30 p.m.

CNY

PPI y/y

 

 

 

 

 

NA

Sat​​ Mar 9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

#E5F8FF

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Archive - 25th February 2024


MAX NewsWatch List


25th​​ February 2024.

Market Open Times​​ (NY Time): 
Tokyo 7pm  –  Frankfurt 2am ​​ – ​​ London 3am ​​ – ​​ US 8am
Be careful when ​​ Daylight ​​ Saving Changes are in play
All Times are in New York Time.

Impact

Date

Time

Cur.

News Event

 

 

 

 

N.A.

Sun Feb 25

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Mon Feb 26

10:00 a.m.

USD

New Home Sales

Monitor

Mon Feb 26

6:30 p.m.

JPY

National Core CPI y/y

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Tue Feb 27

2:00 a.m.

EUR

German GfK Consumer Climate

All TFs

Tue Feb 27

4:00 a.m.

EUR

M3 Money Supply y/y

Under H4

Tue Feb 27

8:30 a.m.

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders m/m

Under H4

Tue Feb 27

8:30 a.m.

USD

Durable Goods Orders m/m

All TFs

Tue Feb 27

10:00 a.m.

USD

CB Consumer Confidence

Hi Impact

Tue Feb 27

8:00 p.m.

NZD

Official Cash Rate

Hi Impact

Tue Feb 27

8:00 p.m.

NZD

RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement

Hi Impact

Tue Feb 27

8:00 p.m.

NZD

RBNZ Rate Statement

Hi Impact

Tue Feb 27

9:00 p.m.

NZD

RBNZ Press Conference

 

 

 

 

 

Under H4

Wed Feb 28

28th-1st

GBP

Nationwide HPI m/m

Monitor

Wed Feb 28

4:00 a.m.

CHF

Credit Suisse Economic Expectations

Monitor

Wed Feb 28

Tentative

EUR

Italian 10-y Bond Auction

All TFs

Wed Feb 28

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Current Account

All TFs

Wed Feb 28

8:30 a.m.

USD

Prelim GDP q/q

All TFs

Wed Feb 28

8:30 a.m.

USD

Prelim GDP Price Index q/q

Monitor

Wed Feb 28

10:30 a.m.

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

Monitor

Wed Feb 28

7:00 p.m.

NZD

ANZ Business Confidence

Monitor

Wed Feb 28

7:30 p.m.

AUD

Retail Sales m/m

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Thu Feb 29

12:00 a.m.

JPY

BOJ Core CPI y/y

Monitor

Thu Feb 29

All Day

EUR

German Prelim CPI m/m

All TFs

Thu Feb 29

3:00 a.m.

CHF

GDP q/q

Monitor

Thu Feb 29

3:00 a.m.

CHF

KOF Economic Barometer

All TFs

Thu Feb 29

8:30 a.m.

CAD

GDP m/m

All TFs

Thu Feb 29

8:30 a.m.

USD

Core PCE Price Index m/m

Monitor

Thu Feb 29

8:30 a.m.

USD

Unemployment Claims

Under H4

Thu Feb 29

9:45 a.m.

USD

Chicago PMI

Monitor

Thu Feb 29

10:30 a.m.

USD

Natural Gas Storage

Monitor

Thu Feb 29

8:30 p.m.

CNY

Manufacturing PMI

Monitor

Thu Feb 29

8:30 p.m.

CNY

Non-Manufacturing PMI

Monitor

Thu Feb 29

8:45 p.m.

CNY

Caixin Manufacturing PMI

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Fri Mar 1

12:00 a.m.

JPY

Consumer Confidence

Monitor

Fri Mar 1

12:30 a.m.

AUD

Commodity Prices y/y

Monitor

Fri Mar 1

5:00 a.m.

EUR

Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y

Monitor

Fri Mar 1

5:00 a.m.

EUR

CPI Flash Estimate y/y

Monitor

Fri Mar 1

5:00 a.m.

EUR

Unemployment Rate

Under H4

Fri Mar 1

9:30 a.m.

CAD

Manufacturing PMI

Monitor

Fri Mar 1

10:00 a.m.

USD

ISM Manufacturing PMI

Monitor

Fri Mar 1

10:00 a.m.

USD

ISM Manufacturing Prices

Monitor

Fri Mar 1

Tentative

USD

Fed Monetary Policy Report

 

 

 

 

 

N.A.

Sat Mar 2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

#E5F8FF

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


“Top Pairs” Lists


25th​​ February 2024

 

The Top Pairs below are ones that have moved the most in the past 4 weeks.
They are listed in $ order: largest $ to smallest $ movers.

Pick the “low-hanging fruit” i.e. pairs that have moved the​​ most,​​ 
as they are more likely to move this week.

 

Order

Pair

Avg Daily​​ 
Pip Range

Avg Daily
 ​​​​ $ Range ​​ 

Comment 

1

GBPUSD

78

783

Suggested

Best Pairs

2

GBPNZD

126

783

3

GBPAUD

108

712

4

GBPJPY

106

702

5

USDCHF

59

665

6

GBPCHF

56

636

7

EURNZD

102

635

8

USDJPY

95

632

9

CHFJPY

91

606

10

EURJPY

89

595

11

EURAUD

90

590

Less stressful?​​ 

12

EURUSD

59

586

Maybe less profitable,

13

GBPCAD

77

573

maybe easier trades?

14

AUDUSD

52

525

 

15

NZDUSD

51

506

 

 

16

USDCAD

66

489

 

17

EURCAD

61

454

 

 

18

EURCHF

39

442

 

19

CADJPY

62

412

​​ 

20

EURGBP

30

378

​​ 

21

NZDCAD

51

378

​​ 

22

NZDCHF

33

376

Poorer performers:

23

NZDJPY

57

376

Much less volatility &

24

AUDJPY

56

375

likely less profit from

25

CADCHF

33

370

these pairs based on

26

AUDCHF

32

360

their past performance

27

AUDCAD

47

348

 

28

AUDNZD

42

257

 

#E5F8FF

 

 

Short List of Each Day’s Top Pairs

Use these suggested pairs to help limit the pairs you monitor each day.
These pairs use the News Events to help narrow the​​ selection.
MAX Courses will teach you how to make this table for yourself.

Pairs at the top have more important News Events (e.g. Hi Impact) than lower pairs.

 

 

Day

Mon 26th ​​​​ Feb

Tues 27

Wed 28

Thur 29

Fri March 1st

 

 

1st​​ 
Choices

GBPUSD or GBPNZD

GBPUSD or USDCHF

GBPNZD or EURNZD

USDCHF or GBPUSD

GBPUSD or GBPNZD

GBPAUD or GBPJPY

EURNZD or USDJPY

GBPUSD or GBPAUD

GBPCHF or USDJPY

GBPCAD,​​ GBPAUD or GBPJPY

 

2nd​​ 
Choices

USDCHF or GBPCHF

EURJPY or GBPNZD

GBPCAD, GBPJPY,​​ 
GBPCHF or USDCHF

CHFJPY or GBPNZD

USDCHF or GBPCHF

 

 

 

 

 

Smooth Movers


These pairs might be less volatile & easier to trade.

 

 

 

Forex Pairs


If you are uncomfortable with the faster more volatile pairs above, you could consider monitoring/trading these ones instead.


Less money, but possibly less volatility & stress.

 

 

Indices


Consider trading these indices, too.
Be careful, take your time & make certain you know how they move. They use points & fractions of points.

Some brokers allow trading the Indices by CFDs, instead of Futures.​​ 

Check with your broker for more info.

 

  • EURAUD

  • EURUSD

  • GBPCAD

  • DAX

  • DOW Jones

  • NASDAQ

  • S&P 500

  • FTS100

  • NK225

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Longer Term Issues​​ 


25th​​ February 2024


Last modified: ​​  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Banks warned of CRE (Commercial Real Estate) Risks  ​​​​ 11 Feb 2024

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ 

​​ 

​​ Critical Items

    – Impact: Possible Immediate Impact

 

   ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ 

All​​ Countries– Inflation ​​ ​​ (Added:  30th April 2023)
–​​ Closely monitor the Central Banks (Fed & others) for​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Recession mitigation & Interest Rate Changes.

 

USSR/Ukraine – Monitor (Updated: 18th Sept 2022,24 Feb 2022 & 2021))

 


Israel & Iran &​​ Gaza/Hamas – Monitor – Conflict Escalation & Possible Nuclear Arsenal

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​  (Update: 14 Oct 2023, ​​ 22 Aug 21)
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Monitor - ​​ Red Sea skirmishes ​​ ​​ (Added: ​​ 23rd​​ Dec 2023)

China – possible deflation setting up  ​​ ​​ ​​​​ –​​ (Updated: 6th​​ Jan 2024, 16 Dec 2023, Added:  13th Aug 2023)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor ​​ - impact on trading partners​​ - esp Aus & NZ

 ​​ ​​​​  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1235581-china-new-loans-plunge-to-2009-low-in?&highlight=china
 ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Monitor – Another bank, Zhongzhi, has collapsed. It supported construction companies & they are weak.​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://techstory.in/china-deals-with-debt-blow/

 

           ​​ 

Silicon Valley Bank collapse​​ + contagion?​​  ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Updated 18 March 2023, Added:  11 March 2023)

 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor: Still ongoing impacts in US & includes the global banking system.
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ SVB, Silvergate, Signature, Credit Suisse & now First Republic
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_banking_crisis​​ 

BRICs – 5 more countries have joined  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Added:  11 March 2023)
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.cmegroup.com/openmarkets/fx/2023/Are-Threats-to-the-USDs-Role-as-a-Reserve-Currency-Real.html

 

 

All Countries– Covid19 – Corona Virus
– Monitor for business changes.

 

US vs China– Monitor Trade war
Pay attention to any escalation 

 

 

China- Evergrande issue  (Updated: 3 Feb 2024, ​​ 25 Nov 2023, 19​​ Aug 2023 ​​ & 26 Aug 21)
– Evergrande in liquidation
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/29/evergrande-shares-halted-after-hong-kong-court-orders-liquidation-.html
– Zhongzhi Enterprise Group ( China’s largest shadow bank) is declaring itself “severely insolvent.” Involved in trust, wealth funds & real estate projects & management.​​ 

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://english.elpais.com/economy-and-business/2023-11-24/zhongzhi-one-of-chinas-major-shadow-banks-declares-itself-severely-insolvent.html

– Evergrande​​ has filed for bankruptcy in the US

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.reuters.com/legal/china-evergrande-files-chapter-15-bankruptcy-us-court-filing-2023-08-17/
– Monitor as it could impact China’s banking system
– Evergrande defaulted on an interest payment to Australia 1st Oct 2021


Goldman Sachs Analysis – Be prudent about the analysis re US economy
(22 Aug 2021)


Afghanistan – Unfolding Situation (Updated: 22 Aug 21)

 

 

 

​​ 

​​ Important Items

    – Impact: Medium Term Impact

 

 

 

US Dollar losing primacy as Reserve Currency  (Added:  23 March 2022)
   Russia demanding Roubles or Yuan instead of USD for payments.
https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1146816-the-us-dollars-global-standing-as-the-top
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/putin-says-russia-will-start-selling-gas-unfriendly-countries-roubles-2022-03-23/

 


Russia Rouble Unsteady  ​​ ​​ ​​​​ – (Added:  15h July 2023)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor ​​ -​​ impact from sanctions & war
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.forexfactory.com/search?searchid=44391641​​ 

 

 

USSR Leadership issues ​​ – Monitor (Added:  1st July 2023)

 

 

USSR/Balkin states​​ –​​ Monitor (Added 1 Oct 2023)
           ​​ Conflicts are starting to be seen​​ 

 

Banks under Scrutiny by ECB  ​​ ​​​​ – (Added:  4th December 2022)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor for limited credit causing financial problems​​ 
 ​​​​ ​​ Effects Deutsche Bank & BNP Paribas

Banks warned of​​ CRE (Commercial Real Estate) Risks  ​​​​ – (Added:  11th February 2024)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor for limited credit causing financial problems​​ 
 ​​​​ ​​ Effects Deutsche Bank & BNP Paribas
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://financialpost.com/fp-finance/banking/commercial-real-estate-contagion-spreads-to-europe
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/ecb-warns-banks-to-grasp-real-estate-risks-or-face-capital-hits-1.2033023​​ 

 

 

US-Iran Tension Escalation

USA Govt Shutdown​​ in March,​​ January?​​ November?​​ – Monitor​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Updated: 19th​​ Jan 2024, 16 Dec​​ 2023, Oct 2023, Nov 2023 )
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ ​​ https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/federal-government-shutdown-funding-11-14-23/index.html
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​  ​​ ​​​​ https://www.raymondjames.com/commentary-and-insights/economy-policy/2023/09/29/weekly-economic-commentary​​ 

 


China/Taiwan – Monitor for possible aggression
as per Chinese general saying military action is considered.

 

EU – Poland – Monitor for possible Issues (Updated: 9 Oct 2021)
   after Poland Constitutional Court decision. PolExit?

European Union Dissolving? Monitor the EU for
interstate difficulties exacerbated by the Covid19 epidemic
via EU Council meeting relationships degrading
– also monitor Germany’s Constitutional Court Ruling
for future implications – re EURO viability, EU partnerships,
& possible end of EU? More​​ info here: www.cnbc.com/


China/Hong Kong – Monitor

EU – Germany’s political situation is not settled
Additional EU Entrants possible?

Syria – Could disrupt in the markets

Libya – Geopolitical/Military escalation could affect Oil Prices

ECB – Monitor​​ statements for weakening impacts
ECB outlook is becoming more pessimistic re EU Economy
Monitor any action taken if/when QE ceases at Year End.

 

 

 

 

​​ Ongoing Items

    – Impact: Very Long Term Repercussions

 

 

 

Italy – Monitor (Updated: 17 July​​ 2022, -​​ 14 Feb 2021)
Draghi quits as PM, could still impact EU
– Monitor – Budget & Banking System
– Monitor – Possible EU Penalty & alternate currency

OPEC – Monitor (Updated: 07 July 2023) 
 – Unexpectedly dropped the price​​ 
 – considering​​ dropping USD as denomination currency
 – Influence of terrorism on production has risen.

 

German Bank (WireCard) Bankrupted – Monitor for
possible future ramifications for stability
– eg domino effect a la Lehman Brothers.

 

Karlsruhe German Constitutional​​ Court (Updated: 9 May 21)
Monitor: Decision re ECB PEPP (QE)
Could be revoked causing major impact on the German economy

 

China vs India vs Pakistan– Monitor conflicts along border.

 

 

 

 

Archive - 18th February 2024


MAX NewsWatch List


18th​​ February 2024

Market Open Times​​ (NY Time): 
Tokyo 7pm  –  Frankfurt 2am ​​ – ​​ London 3am ​​ – ​​ US 8am
Be careful when ​​ Daylight ​​ Saving Changes are in play
All Times are in New York Time.

Impact

Date

Time

Cur.

News Event

 

 

 

 

N.A.

Sun Feb 18

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Mon Feb 19

6:00 a.m.

EUR

German Buba Monthly Report

Holiday

Mon Feb 19

All Day

CAD

Bank Holiday

Holiday

Mon Feb 19

All Day

USD

Bank Holiday

Monitor

Mon Feb 19

7:30 p.m.

AUD

Monetary Policy​​ Meeting Minutes

 

 

 

 

 

All TFs

Tue Feb 20

2:00 a.m.

CHF

Trade Balance

All TFs

Tue Feb 20

4:00 a.m.

EUR

Current Account

All TFs

Tue Feb 20

8:30 a.m.

CAD

CPI m/m

All TFs

Tue Feb 20

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Core CPI m/m

All TFs

Tue Feb 20

Tentative

NZD

GDT​​ Price Index

Monitor

Tue Feb 20

4:45 p.m.

AUD

MI Leading Index m/m

All TFs

Tue Feb 20

6:50 p.m.

JPY

Trade Balance

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Wed Feb 21

Tentative

EUR

German 10-y Bond Auction

Monitor

Wed Feb 21

2:00 p.m.

USD

FOMC Meeting Minutes

All TFs

Wed Feb 21

4:45 p.m.

NZD

Trade Balance

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Thu Feb 22

4:00 a.m.

EUR

Flash Manufacturing PMI

Monitor

Thu Feb 22

4:00 a.m.

EUR

Flash Services PMI

Monitor

Thu Feb 22

5:00 a.m.

EUR

Final Core CPI y/y

Monitor

Thu Feb 22

5:00 a.m.

EUR

Final CPI y/y

Monitor

Thu Feb 22

7:30 a.m.

EUR

ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

Under H4

Thu Feb 22

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Core Retail Sales m/m

Under H4

Thu Feb 22

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Retail Sales m/m

Monitor

Thu Feb 22

8:30 a.m.

USD

Unemployment Claims

Monitor

Thu Feb 22

9:45 a.m.

USD

Flash Manufacturing PMI

Monitor

Thu Feb 22

9:45 a.m.

USD

Flash Services PMI

Monitor

Thu Feb 22

10:00 a.m.

USD

Existing Home Sales

Monitor

Thu Feb 22

10:30 a.m.

USD

Natural Gas Storage

Monitor

Thu Feb 22

11:00 a.m.

USD

Crude Oil​​ Inventories

Under H4

Thu Feb 22

4:45 p.m.

NZD

Retail Sales q/q

Under H4

Thu Feb 22

4:45 p.m.

NZD

Core Retail Sales q/q

Holiday

Thu Feb 22

All Day

JPY

Bank Holiday

Monitor

Thu Feb 22

7:01 p.m.

GBP

GfK Consumer Confidence

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Fri Feb 23

4:00 a.m.

EUR

German ifo Business Climate

Monitor

Fri Feb 23

All Day

EUR

Eurogroup Meetings

Monitor

Fri Feb 23

Tentative

USD

Fed Monetary Policy Report

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Sat Feb 24

All Day

EUR

ECOFIN Meetings

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

#E5F8FF

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Archive - 11th February 2024


MAX NewsWatch List


11th​​ February 2024

Market Open Times​​ (NY Time): 
Tokyo 7pm  –  Frankfurt 2am ​​ – ​​ London 3am ​​ – ​​ US 8am
Be careful when ​​ Daylight ​​ Saving Changes are in play
All Times are in New York Time.

Impact

Date

Time

Cur.

News Event

 

 

 

 

Holiday

Sun Feb 11

All Day

JPY

Bank Holiday

Holiday

Sun Feb 11

All Day

CNY

Bank Holiday

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Mon Feb 12

2:00 p.m.

USD

Federal Budget Balance

Monitor

Mon Feb 12

7:30 p.m.

AUD

NAB Business Confidence

Holiday

Mon Feb 12

All Day

CNY

Bank Holiday

Monitor

Mon Feb 12

9:00 p.m.

NZD

Inflation Expectations q/q

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Tue Feb 13

2:00 a.m.

GBP

Average Earnings Index 3m/y

All TFs

Tue Feb 13

2:30 a.m.

CHF

CPI m/m

Under H4

Tue Feb 13

5:00 a.m.

EUR

ZEW Economic Sentiment

Under H4

Tue Feb 13

5:00 a.m.

EUR

German ZEW Economic Sentiment

Monitor

Tue Feb 13

Tentative

EUR

EU Economic Forecasts

All TFs

Tue Feb 13

8:30 a.m.

USD

Core CPI m/m

All TFs

Tue Feb 13

8:30 a.m.

USD

CPI m/m

Monitor

Tue Feb 13

8:30 a.m.

USD

CPI y/y

Holiday

Tue Feb 13

All Day

CNY

Bank Holiday

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Wed Feb 14

2:00 a.m.

GBP

CPI y/y

Monitor

Wed Feb 14

2:00 a.m.

GBP

Core CPI y/y

All TFs

Wed Feb 14

5:00 a.m.

EUR

Flash GDP q/q

Under H4

Wed Feb 14

5:00 a.m.

EUR

Industrial Production m/m

Monitor

Wed Feb 14

Tentative

GBP

10-y Bond Auction

Monitor

Wed Feb 14

Tentative

EUR

German 30-y Bond Auction

Monitor

Wed Feb 14

10:30 a.m.

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

Monitor

Wed Feb 14

6:50 p.m.

JPY

Prelim GDP Price Index y/y

Monitor

Wed Feb 14

6:50 p.m.

JPY

Prelim GDP q/q

Monitor

Wed Feb 14

7:00 p.m.

AUD

MI Inflation Expectations

Under H4

Wed Feb 14

7:30 p.m.

AUD

Employment Change

Under H4

Wed Feb 14

7:30 p.m.

AUD

Unemployment Rate

Holiday

Wed Feb 14

All Day

CNY

Bank Holiday

 

 

 

 

 

All TFs

Thu Feb 15

2:00 a.m.

GBP

GDP m/m

All TFs

Thu Feb 15

2:00 a.m.

GBP

Prelim GDP q/q

Under H4

Thu Feb 15

2:00 a.m.

GBP

Industrial Production m/m

Under H4

Thu Feb 15

2:00 a.m.

GBP

Manufacturing Production m/m

Monitor

Thu Feb 15

2:30 a.m.

CHF

PPI m/m

All TFs

Thu Feb 15

5:00 a.m.

EUR

Trade Balance

Monitor

Thu Feb 15

Tentative

EUR

Spanish 10-y Bond Auction

Monitor

Thu Feb 15

Tentative

GBP

NIESR GDP Estimate

Monitor

Thu Feb 15

8:15 a.m.

CAD

Housing Starts

Under H4

Thu Feb 15

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Manufacturing Sales m/m

Under H4

Thu Feb 15

8:30 a.m.

USD

Core Retail Sales m/m

Under H4

Thu Feb 15

8:30 a.m.

USD

Retail Sales m/m

Monitor

Thu Feb 15

8:30 a.m.

USD

Unemployment Claims

Under H4

Thu Feb 15

8:30 a.m.

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

Under H4

Thu Feb 15

9:15 a.m.

USD

Industrial Production m/m

Monitor

Thu Feb 15

10:30 a.m.

USD

Natural Gas Storage

Holiday

Thu Feb 15

All Day

CNY

Bank Holiday

 

 

 

 

 

Under H4

Fri Feb 16

2:00 a.m.

GBP

Retail Sales m/m

Under H4

Fri Feb 16

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Wholesale Sales m/m

Monitor

Fri Feb 16

8:30 a.m.

USD

Core PPI m/m

Monitor

Fri Feb 16

8:30 a.m.

USD

PPI m/m

Monitor

Fri Feb 16

8:30 a.m.

USD

Housing Starts

Under H4

Fri Feb 16

10:00 a.m.

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

Under H4

Fri Feb 16

10:00 a.m.

USD

Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations

 

 

 

 

 

NA

Sat Feb 17

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

#E5F8FF

 

 

 

Short List of Each Day’s Top Pairs

Use these suggested pairs to help limit the pairs you monitor each day.
These pairs use the News Events to help narrow the selection.
MAX Courses will teach you how to make this table for yourself.

Pairs at the top have more important News Events (e.g. Hi Impact) than lower pairs.

 

 

Day

Mon 12th ​​​​ Feb

Tues 13

Wed 14

Thur 15

Fri 16

 

 

1st​​ 
Choices

GBPJPY or GBPNZD

USDCHF or GBPUSD

EURNZD or EURJPY

GBPUSD or GBPAUD

GBPUSD or USDCHF

GBPUSD or USDJPY

USDJPY or EURNZD

EURAUD or GBPJPY

EURAUD or GBPJPY

GBPJPY or GBPNZD

 

2nd​​ 
Choices

EURNZD or CHFJPY

CHFJPY or EURAUD

GBPNZD or GBPUSD

EURJPY, GBPNZD or EURNZD

USDJPY or EURNZD

 

 

 

 

 

Smooth Movers


These pairs might be less volatile & easier to trade.

 

 

 

Forex Pairs


If you are uncomfortable with the faster more volatile pairs above, you could consider monitoring/trading these ones instead.


Less money, but possibly less volatility & stress.

 

 

Indices


Consider trading these indices, too.
Be careful, take your time & make certain you know how they move. They use points & fractions of points.

Some brokers allow trading the Indices by CFDs, instead of Futures.​​ 

Check with your broker for more info.

 

  • GBPCHF

  • EURUSD

  • GBPCAD

  • AUDUSD

  • NZDUSD

  • DAX

  • DOW Jones

  • NASDAQ

  • S&P 500

  • FTS100

  • NK225

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


“Top Pairs” Lists


11th​​ February 2024

 

The Top Pairs below are ones that have moved the most in the past 4 weeks.
They are listed in $ order: largest $ to smallest $ movers.

Pick the “low-hanging fruit” i.e. pairs that have moved the​​ most,​​ 
as they are more likely to move this week.

 

Last week

 

 

 

 

1

GBPJPY

124

829

Suggested

Best Pairs

2

GBPNZD

135

829

3

GBPUSD

80

802

4

USDJPY

116

779

5

EURNZD

119

733

6

CHFJPY

109

732

7

EURJPY

109

730

8

GBPAUD

112

728

9

USDCHF

61

693

10

EURAUD

105

682

11

GBPCHF

56

643

Less stressful?​​ 

12

EURUSD

62

616

Maybe less profitable,

13

GBPCAD

83

613

maybe easier trades?

14

AUDUSD

55

550

 

15

NZDUSD

55

545

 

 

16

EURCAD

70

520

 

17

CADJPY

76

512

 

 

18

USDCAD

68

503

 

19

EURCHF

41

471

​​ 

20

CADCHF

40

458

​​ 

21

NZDCHF

37

426

​​ 

22

AUDCHF

37

426

Poorer performers:

23

NZDCAD

55

406

Much less volatility &

24

EURGBP

31

391

likely less profit from

25

AUDJPY

58

386

these pairs based on

26

NZDJPY

58

386

their past performance

27

AUDCAD

52

383

 

28

AUDNZD

44

268

 

#E5F8FF

 

 

Short List of Each​​ Day’s Top Pairs

Use these suggested pairs to help limit the pairs you monitor each day.
These pairs use the News Events to help narrow the selection.
MAX Courses will teach you how to make this table for yourself.

Pairs at the top have more important News Events (e.g. Hi Impact) than lower pairs.

 

 

Day

Mon​​ 12th ​​​​ Feb

Tues​​ 13

Wed​​ 14

Thur​​ 15

Fri​​ 16

 

 

1st​​ 
Choices

GBPJPY or GBPNZD

USDCHF or GBPUSD

EURNZD or EURJPY

GBPUSD or GBPAUD

GBPUSD or USDCHF

GBPUSD or USDJPY

USDJPY or EURNZD

EURAUD or GBPJPY

EURAUD or GBPJPY

GBPJPY or GBPNZD

 

2nd​​ 
Choices

EURNZD or CHFJPY

CHFJPY or EURAUD

GBPNZD or GBPUSD

EURJPY, GBPNZD or EURNZD

USDJPY or EURNZD

 

 

 

 

 

Smooth Movers


These pairs might be less volatile & easier to trade.

 

 

 

Forex Pairs


If you are​​ uncomfortable with the faster more volatile pairs above, you could consider monitoring/trading these ones instead.


Less money, but possibly less volatility & stress.

 

 

Indices


Consider trading these indices, too.
Be careful, take your time & make​​ certain you know how they move. They use points & fractions of points.
Some brokers allow trading the Indices by CFDs, instead of Futures.​​ 
Check with your broker for more info.

 

  • GBPCHF

  • EURUSD

  • GBPCAD

  • AUDUSD

  • NZDUSD

  • DAX

  • DOW Jones

  • NASDAQ

  • S&P 500

  • FTS100

  • NK225

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Longer Term Issues​​ 


11th​​ February 2024


Last modified: ​​  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Banks warned of CRE (Commercial Real Estate) Risks  ​​​​ 11 Feb 2024

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ 

​​ 

​​ Critical Items

    – Impact: Possible Immediate Impact

 

 ​​  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ 

All Countries– Inflation ​​ ​​ (Added:  30th April 2023)
–​​ Closely monitor the Central Banks (Fed & others) for​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Recession mitigation & Interest Rate Changes.

 

USSR/Ukraine – Monitor (Updated: 18th Sept 2022,24 Feb 2022 & 2021))

 


Israel &​​ Iran & Gaza/Hamas – Monitor – Conflict Escalation & Possible Nuclear Arsenal

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​  (Update: 14 Oct 2023, ​​ 22 Aug 21)
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Monitor - ​​ Red Sea​​ skirmishes ​​ ​​ (Added: ​​ 23rd​​ Dec 2023)

China – possible deflation setting up  ​​ ​​ ​​​​ –​​ (Updated: 6th​​ Jan 2024, 16 Dec 2023, Added:  13th Aug 2023)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor ​​ - impact on trading partners​​ - esp Aus & NZ

 ​​ ​​​​  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1235581-china-new-loans-plunge-to-2009-low-in?&highlight=china
 ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Monitor – Another bank, Zhongzhi, has collapsed. It supported construction companies & they are weak.​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://techstory.in/china-deals-with-debt-blow/

 

           ​​ 

Silicon Valley Bank collapse​​ + contagion?​​  ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Updated 18 March 2023, Added:  11 March 2023)

 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor: Still ongoing impacts in US & includes the global banking system.
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ SVB, Silvergate, Signature, Credit Suisse & now First Republic
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_banking_crisis​​ 

BRICs​​ – 5 more countries have joined  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Added:  11 March 2023)
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.cmegroup.com/openmarkets/fx/2023/Are-Threats-to-the-USDs-Role-as-a-Reserve-Currency-Real.html

 

 

All Countries– Covid19 – Corona Virus
– Monitor for business​​ changes.

 

US vs China– Monitor Trade war
Pay attention to any escalation 

 

 

China- Evergrande issue  (Updated: 3 Feb 2024, ​​ 25 Nov 2023, 19 Aug 2023 ​​ & 26 Aug 21)
– Evergrande in liquidation
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/29/evergrande-shares-halted-after-hong-kong-court-orders-liquidation-.html
– Zhongzhi Enterprise Group ( China’s largest shadow bank) is declaring itself “severely insolvent.” Involved in trust, wealth funds & real estate projects & management.​​ 

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://english.elpais.com/economy-and-business/2023-11-24/zhongzhi-one-of-chinas-major-shadow-banks-declares-itself-severely-insolvent.html

– Evergrande has filed for bankruptcy in the US

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.reuters.com/legal/china-evergrande-files-chapter-15-bankruptcy-us-court-filing-2023-08-17/
– Monitor as it could impact China’s banking system
– Evergrande defaulted on an interest payment to Australia 1st Oct 2021


Goldman Sachs Analysis – Be prudent about the analysis re US economy
(22 Aug 2021)


Afghanistan – Unfolding​​ Situation (Updated: 22 Aug 21)

 

 

 

​​ 

​​ Important Items

    – Impact: Medium Term Impact

 

 

 

US Dollar losing primacy as Reserve Currency  (Added:  23 March 2022)
   Russia demanding Roubles or Yuan instead of USD for payments.
https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1146816-the-us-dollars-global-standing-as-the-top
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/putin-says-russia-will-start-selling-gas-unfriendly-countries-roubles-2022-03-23/

 


Russia Rouble Unsteady  ​​ ​​ ​​​​ – (Added:  15h July 2023)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor ​​ -​​ impact from sanctions & war
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.forexfactory.com/search?searchid=44391641​​ 

 

 

USSR Leadership issues ​​ – Monitor (Added:  1st July 2023)

 

 

USSR/Balkin states​​ –​​ Monitor (Added 1 Oct 2023)
           ​​ Conflicts are starting to be seen​​ 

 

Banks under Scrutiny by ECB  ​​ ​​​​ – (Added:  4th December 2022)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor for limited credit causing financial problems​​ 
 ​​​​ ​​ Effects Deutsche Bank & BNP Paribas

Banks warned of CRE (Commercial Real Estate) Risks  ​​​​ – (Added:  11th February 2024)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor for limited credit causing financial problems​​ 
 ​​​​ 
​​ Effects Deutsche Bank & BNP Paribas
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://financialpost.com/fp-finance/banking/commercial-real-estate-contagion-spreads-to-europe
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/ecb-warns-banks-to-grasp-real-estate-risks-or-face-capital-hits-1.2033023​​ 

 

 

US-Iran Tension Escalation

USA Govt Shutdown​​ in March,​​ January?​​ November?​​ – Monitor​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Updated: 19th​​ Jan 2024, 16 Dec 2023, Oct 2023, Nov 2023 )
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ ​​ https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/federal-government-shutdown-funding-11-14-23/index.html
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.raymondjames.com/commentary-and-insights/economy-policy/2023/09/29/weekly-economic-commentary​​ 

 


China/Taiwan – Monitor for possible aggression
as per Chinese general saying military action is considered.

 

EU – Poland –​​ Monitor for possible Issues (Updated: 9 Oct 2021)
   after Poland Constitutional Court decision. PolExit?

European Union Dissolving? Monitor the EU for
interstate difficulties exacerbated by the Covid19 epidemic
via EU Council meeting relationships degrading
– also monitor Germany’s Constitutional Court Ruling
for future implications – re EURO viability, EU partnerships,
& possible end of EU? More info here: www.cnbc.com/


China/Hong Kong – Monitor

EU – Germany’s political situation is not settled
Additional EU Entrants possible?

Syria – Could disrupt in the markets

Libya – Geopolitical/Military escalation could affect Oil Prices

ECB – Monitor statements for weakening impacts
ECB outlook is becoming more pessimistic re EU Economy
Monitor any action taken if/when QE ceases at Year End.

 

 

 

 

​​ Ongoing Items

    – Impact: Very Long Term Repercussions

 

 

 

Italy – Monitor (Updated: 17 July 2022, -​​ 14 Feb 2021)
Draghi quits as PM, could still impact EU
– Monitor – Budget & Banking System
– Monitor –​​ Possible EU Penalty & alternate currency

OPEC – Monitor (Updated: 07 July 2023) 
 – Unexpectedly dropped the price​​ 
 – considering dropping USD as denomination currency
 – Influence of terrorism on production has risen.

 

German Bank (WireCard) Bankrupted – Monitor for
possible future ramifications for stability
– eg domino effect a la Lehman Brothers.

 

Karlsruhe German Constitutional Court (Updated: 9 May 21)
Monitor: Decision re ECB PEPP (QE)
Could be revoked causing major impact on the German economy

 

China vs India vs Pakistan– Monitor conflicts along border.

 

 

 

 

Archive - 4th Feb 2024


MAX NewsWatch List


18th​​ February 2024

Market Open Times​​ (NY Time): 
Tokyo 7pm  –  Frankfurt 2am ​​ – ​​ London 3am ​​ – ​​ US 8am
Be careful when ​​ Daylight ​​ Saving Changes are in play
All Times are in New York Time.

Impact

Date

Time

Cur.

News Event

 

 

 

 

N.A.

Sun Feb 18

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Mon Feb 19

6:00 a.m.

EUR

German Buba Monthly Report

Holiday

Mon Feb 19

All Day

CAD

Bank Holiday

Holiday

Mon Feb 19

All Day

USD

Bank Holiday

Monitor

Mon Feb 19

7:30 p.m.

AUD

Monetary Policy​​ Meeting Minutes

 

 

 

 

 

All TFs

Tue Feb 20

2:00 a.m.

CHF

Trade Balance

All TFs

Tue Feb 20

4:00 a.m.

EUR

Current Account

All TFs

Tue Feb 20

8:30 a.m.

CAD

CPI m/m

All TFs

Tue Feb 20

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Core CPI m/m

All TFs

Tue Feb 20

Tentative

NZD

GDT​​ Price Index

Monitor

Tue Feb 20

4:45 p.m.

AUD

MI Leading Index m/m

All TFs

Tue Feb 20

6:50 p.m.

JPY

Trade Balance

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Wed Feb 21

Tentative

EUR

German 10-y Bond Auction

Monitor

Wed Feb 21

2:00 p.m.

USD

FOMC Meeting Minutes

All TFs

Wed Feb 21

4:45 p.m.

NZD

Trade Balance

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Thu Feb 22

4:00 a.m.

EUR

Flash Manufacturing PMI

Monitor

Thu Feb 22

4:00 a.m.

EUR

Flash Services PMI

Monitor

Thu Feb 22

5:00 a.m.

EUR

Final Core CPI y/y

Monitor

Thu Feb 22

5:00 a.m.

EUR

Final CPI y/y

Monitor

Thu Feb 22

7:30 a.m.

EUR

ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

Under H4

Thu Feb 22

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Core Retail Sales m/m

Under H4

Thu Feb 22

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Retail Sales m/m

Monitor

Thu Feb 22

8:30 a.m.

USD

Unemployment Claims

Monitor

Thu Feb 22

9:45 a.m.

USD

Flash Manufacturing PMI

Monitor

Thu Feb 22

9:45 a.m.

USD

Flash Services PMI

Monitor

Thu Feb 22

10:00 a.m.

USD

Existing Home Sales

Monitor

Thu Feb 22

10:30 a.m.

USD

Natural Gas Storage

Monitor

Thu Feb 22

11:00 a.m.

USD

Crude Oil​​ Inventories

Under H4

Thu Feb 22

4:45 p.m.

NZD

Retail Sales q/q

Under H4

Thu Feb 22

4:45 p.m.

NZD

Core Retail Sales q/q

Holiday

Thu Feb 22

All Day

JPY

Bank Holiday

Monitor

Thu Feb 22

7:01 p.m.

GBP

GfK Consumer Confidence

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Fri Feb 23

4:00 a.m.

EUR

German ifo Business Climate

Monitor

Fri Feb 23

All Day

EUR

Eurogroup Meetings

Monitor

Fri Feb 23

Tentative

USD

Fed Monetary Policy Report

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Sat Feb 24

All Day

EUR

ECOFIN Meetings

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

#E5F8FF

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


MAX NewsWatch List


4th​​ February 2024​​ 

Market Open Times​​ (NY Time): 
Tokyo 7pm  –  Frankfurt 2am ​​ – ​​ London 3am ​​ – ​​ US 8am
Be careful when ​​ Daylight ​​ Saving Changes are in play
All Times are in New York Time.

Impact

Date

Time

Cur.

News Event

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Sun Feb 4

7:00 p.m.

AUD

MI Inflation Gauge m/m

Monitor

Sun Feb 4

8:45 p.m.

CNY

Caixin Services PMI

.

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Mon Feb 5

10:00 a.m.

USD

ISM Services PMI

Holiday

Mon Feb 5

All Day

NZD

Bank Holiday

Hi Impact

Mon Feb 5

10:30 p.m.

AUD

Cash Rate

Hi Impact

Mon Feb 5

10:30 p.m.

AUD

RBA Rate Statement

Monitor

Mon Feb 5

10:30 p.m.

AUD

RBA Monetary Policy Statement

Hi Impact

Mon Feb 5

11:30 p.m.

AUD

RBA Press Conference

 

 

 

 

 

Under H4

Tue Feb 6

4:30 a.m.

GBP

Construction PMI

All TFs

Tue Feb 6

Tentative

NZD

GDT Price Index

Monitor

Tue Feb 6

4:45 p.m.

NZD

Employment Change q/q

Monitor

Tue Feb 6

4:45 p.m.

NZD

Unemployment Rate

Monitor

Tue Feb 6

10:35 p.m.

JPY

30-y Bond Auction

 

 

 

 

 

Under H4

Wed Feb 7

2:00 a.m.

GBP

Halifax HPI m/m

All TFs

Wed Feb 7

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Trade Balance

All TFs

Wed Feb 7

8:30 a.m.

USD

Trade Balance

Monitor

Wed Feb 7

10:30 a.m.

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

Monitor

Wed Feb 7

1:01 p.m.

USD

10-y Bond Auction

Monitor

Wed Feb 7

1:30 p.m.

CAD

BOC Summary of Deliberations

All TFs

Wed Feb 7

6:50 p.m.

JPY

Current Account

Monitor

Wed Feb 7

8:30 p.m.

CNY

CPI y/y

Monitor

Wed Feb 7

8:30 p.m.

CNY

PPI y/y

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Thu Feb 8

12:00 a.m.

JPY

Economy Watchers Sentiment

Monitor

Thu Feb 8

4:00 a.m.

EUR

ECB Economic Bulletin

Monitor

Thu Feb 8

8:30 a.m.

USD

Unemployment Claims

Monitor

Thu Feb 8

10:30 a.m.

USD

Natural Gas Storage

Monitor

Thu Feb 8

1:01 p.m.

USD

30-y Bond Auction

Monitor

Thu Feb 8

5:30 p.m.

AUD

RBA Gov Bullock Speaks

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Fri Feb 9

2:00 a.m.

EUR

German Final CPI m/m

Under H4

Fri Feb 9

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Employment Change

Under H4

Fri Feb 9

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Unemployment Rate

 

 

 

 

 

NA

Sat​​ Feb 10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

#E5F8FF

 

 

 

Short List of Each Day’s Top Pairs

Use these suggested pairs to help limit the pairs you monitor each day.
These pairs use the News Events to help narrow the selection.
MAX Courses will teach you how to​​ make this table for yourself.

Pairs at the top have more important News Events (e.g. Hi Impact) than lower pairs.

 

 

Day

Mon 5th ​​​​ Feb

Tues 6

Wed 7

Thur 8

Fri 9

 

 

1st​​ 
Choices

GBPJPY or USDJPY

GBPAUD or EURAUD

GBPUSD or GBPJPY

GBPJPY or USDJPY

GBPJPY or USDJPY

GBPUSD or GBPNZD

GBPNZD or GBPJPY

USDJPY or GBPNZD

CHFJPY or EURJPY

GBPUSD or GBPNZD

 

2nd​​ 
Choices

CHFJPY or EURJPY

GBPUSD or EURNZD

USDCHF or GBPAUD

GBPUSD or GBPNZD

GBPCAD, CHFJPY or EURJPY

 

 

 

 

 

Smooth Movers


These pairs​​ might be less volatile & easier to trade.

 

 

 

Forex Pairs


If you are uncomfortable with the faster more volatile pairs above, you could consider monitoring/trading these ones instead.


Less money, but possibly less volatility & stress.

 

 

Indices


Consider trading these indices, too.
Be careful, take your time & make certain you know how they move. They use points & fractions of points.
Some brokers allow trading the Indices by CFDs, instead of Futures.​​ 
Check with your broker for more info.

 

  • EURUSD

  • GBPCAD

  • GBPCHF

  • AUDUSD

  • DAX

  • DOW Jones

  • NASDAQ

  • S&P 500

  • FTS100

  • NK225

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


“Top Pairs” Lists


4th​​ February 2024

 

The Top Pairs below are ones that have moved the most in the past 4 weeks.
They are listed in $ order: largest $ to smallest $ movers.

Pick the “low-hanging fruit” i.e. pairs that have moved the​​ most,​​ 
as they are more likely to move this week.

 

Last week

 

 

 

 

1

GBPJPY

131

883

Suggested

Best Pairs

2

USDJPY

127

853

3

GBPUSD

82

825

4

GBPNZD

134

810

5

CHFJPY

116

782

6

EURJPY

115

777

7

USDCHF

64

737

8

EURNZD

121

734

9

GBPAUD

112

730

10

EURAUD

109

707

11

EURUSD

65

653

Less stressful?​​ 

12

GBPCAD

85

634

Maybe less profitable,

13

GBPCHF

53

611

maybe easier trades?

14

AUDUSD

58

575

 

15

CADJPY

83

558

 

 

16

NZDUSD

55

549

 

17

EURCAD

74

548

 

 

18

USDCAD

69

514

 

19

EURCHF

42

487

​​ 

20

CADCHF

41

468

​​ 

21

AUDJPY

66

446

​​ 

22

AUDCHF

36

420

Poorer performers:

23

NZDCHF

36

412

Much less volatility &

24

NZDCAD

54

400

likely less profit from

25

AUDCAD

52

386

these pairs based on

26

EURGBP

31

386

their past performance

27

NZDJPY

57

386

 

28

AUDNZD

43

263

 

#E5F8FF

 

 

 

Short List of Each​​ Day’s Top Pairs

Use these suggested pairs to help limit the pairs you monitor each day.
These pairs use the News Events to help narrow the selection.
MAX Courses will teach you how to make this table for yourself.

Pairs at the top have more important News Events (e.g. Hi Impact) than lower pairs.

 

 

Day

Mon 5th ​​​​ Feb

Tues 6

Wed 7

Thur 8

Fri 9

 

 

1st​​ 
Choices

GBPJPY or USDJPY

GBPAUD or EURAUD

GBPUSD or GBPJPY

GBPJPY or USDJPY

GBPJPY or USDJPY

GBPUSD or GBPNZD

GBPNZD or GBPJPY

USDJPY or GBPNZD

CHFJPY or EURJPY

GBPUSD or GBPNZD

 

2nd​​ 
Choices

CHFJPY or EURJPY

GBPUSD or EURNZD

USDCHF or GBPAUD

GBPUSD or GBPNZD

GBPCAD, CHFJPY or EURJPY

 

 

 

 

 

Smooth Movers


These pairs might be less volatile & easier to trade.

 

 

 

Forex Pairs


If you are uncomfortable with the faster more volatile pairs above, you could consider monitoring/trading these ones instead.


Less money, but possibly less volatility & stress.

 

 

Indices


Consider trading these indices, too.
Be careful, take your time & make certain you know how they move. They use points & fractions of points.

Some brokers allow trading the Indices by CFDs, instead of Futures.​​ 

Check with your broker for more info.

 

  • EURUSD

  • GBPCAD

  • GBPCHF

  • AUDUSD

  • DAX

  • DOW Jones

  • NASDAQ

  • S&P 500

  • FTS100

  • NK225

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Longer Term Issues​​ 


4th​​ February 2024


Last modified: ​​  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ China:​​ Evergrande Liquidated​​ -​​ 3 Feb 2024
Multiple ongoing conflicts,​​ inc Taylor Swift​​ 😊

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ 

​​ 

​​ Critical Items

    – Impact: Possible Immediate Impact

 

   ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ 

All Countries– Inflation ​​ ​​ (Added:  30th​​ April 2023)
–​​ Closely monitor the Central Banks (Fed & others) for​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Recession mitigation & Interest Rate Changes.

 

USSR/Ukraine – Monitor (Updated: 18th Sept 2022,24 Feb 2022 & 2021))

 


Israel & Iran & Gaza/Hamas – Monitor – Conflict​​ Escalation & Possible Nuclear Arsenal

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​  (Update: 14 Oct 2023, ​​ 22 Aug 21)
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Monitor - ​​ Red Sea skirmishes ​​ ​​ (Added: ​​ 23rd​​ Dec​​ 2023)

China – possible deflation setting up  ​​ ​​ ​​​​ –​​ (Updated: 6th​​ Jan 2024, 16 Dec 2023, Added:  13th Aug 2023)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor ​​ - impact on trading partners​​ - esp Aus & NZ

 ​​ ​​​​  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1235581-china-new-loans-plunge-to-2009-low-in?&highlight=china
 ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Monitor – Another bank, Zhongzhi, has collapsed. It supported construction companies & they are weak.​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://techstory.in/china-deals-with-debt-blow/

 

           ​​ 

Silicon Valley Bank collapse​​ + contagion?​​  ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Updated 18 March 2023, Added:  11 March 2023)

 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor: Still ongoing impacts in US & includes the global banking system.
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ SVB, Silvergate, Signature, Credit Suisse & now First Republic
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_banking_crisis​​ 

BRICs – 5 more countries have joined  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Added:  11 March 2023)
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.cmegroup.com/openmarkets/fx/2023/Are-Threats-to-the-USDs-Role-as-a-Reserve-Currency-Real.html

 

 

All Countries– Covid19 – Corona Virus
– Monitor for business changes.

 

US vs China– Monitor Trade war
Pay attention to any escalation 

 

 

China- Evergrande issue  (Updated:​​ 3 Feb 2024,​​ ​​ 25 Nov 2023, 19 Aug 2023 ​​ & 26​​ Aug 21)
– Evergrande in liquidation
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ 
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/29/evergrande-shares-halted-after-hong-kong-court-orders-liquidation-.html
– Zhongzhi Enterprise Group ( China’s largest shadow bank) is declaring itself “severely insolvent.” Involved in trust, wealth funds & real estate projects & management.​​ 

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://english.elpais.com/economy-and-business/2023-11-24/zhongzhi-one-of-chinas-major-shadow-banks-declares-itself-severely-insolvent.html

– Evergrande has filed for bankruptcy in the US

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.reuters.com/legal/china-evergrande-files-chapter-15-bankruptcy-us-court-filing-2023-08-17/
– Monitor as it could impact China’s banking system
– Evergrande defaulted on an interest payment to Australia 1st Oct 2021


Goldman Sachs Analysis – Be prudent about the analysis re US economy
(22 Aug 2021)


Afghanistan – Unfolding Situation (Updated: 22 Aug 21)

 

 

 

​​ 

​​ Important Items

    – Impact: Medium Term Impact

 

 

 

US Dollar losing primacy as Reserve Currency  (Added:  23 March 2022)
   Russia demanding Roubles or Yuan instead of USD for payments.
https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1146816-the-us-dollars-global-standing-as-the-top
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/putin-says-russia-will-start-selling-gas-unfriendly-countries-roubles-2022-03-23/

 


Russia Rouble Unsteady  ​​ ​​ ​​​​ – (Added:  15h July 2023)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor ​​ -​​ impact from sanctions & war
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.forexfactory.com/search?searchid=44391641

 

 

USSR Leadership issues ​​ – Monitor (Added:  1st July 2023)

 

 

USSR/Balkin states​​ –​​ Monitor (Added 1 Oct 2023)
           ​​ Conflicts are starting to be seen​​ 

 

Banks under Scrutiny by ECB  ​​ ​​​​ – (Added:  4th December 2022)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor for limited credit causing financial problems​​ 
 ​​​​ ​​ Effects Deutsche Bank & BNP Paribas

US-Iran Tension Escalation

USA Govt Shutdown​​ in March,​​ January?​​ November?​​ – Monitor​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Updated: 19th​​ Jan 2024, 16 Dec 2023, Oct 2023, Nov 2023 )
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ ​​ https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/federal-government-shutdown-funding-11-14-23/index.html
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.raymondjames.com/commentary-and-insights/economy-policy/2023/09/29/weekly-economic-commentary​​ 

 


China/Taiwan – Monitor for possible aggression
as per Chinese general saying military action is considered.

 

EU – Poland –​​ Monitor for possible Issues (Updated: 9 Oct 2021)
   after Poland Constitutional Court decision. PolExit?

European Union Dissolving? Monitor the EU for
interstate difficulties exacerbated by the Covid19 epidemic
via EU Council meeting relationships degrading
– also monitor Germany’s Constitutional Court Ruling
for future implications – re EURO viability, EU partnerships,
& possible end of EU? More info here: www.cnbc.com/


China/Hong Kong – Monitor

EU – Germany’s political situation is not settled
Additional EU Entrants possible?

Syria – Could disrupt in the markets

Libya – Geopolitical/Military escalation could affect Oil Prices

ECB – Monitor statements for weakening impacts
ECB outlook is becoming more pessimistic re EU Economy
Monitor any action taken if/when QE ceases at Year End.

 

 

 

 

​​ Ongoing Items

    – Impact: Very Long Term Repercussions

 

 

 

Italy – Monitor (Updated: 17 July 2022, -​​ 14 Feb 2021)
Draghi quits as PM, could still impact EU
– Monitor – Budget & Banking System
– Monitor –​​ Possible EU Penalty & alternate currency

OPEC – Monitor (Updated: 07 July 2023) 
 – Unexpectedly dropped the price​​ 
 – considering dropping USD as denomination currency
 – Influence of terrorism on production has risen.

 

German Bank (WireCard) Bankrupted – Monitor for
possible future ramifications for stability
– eg domino effect a la Lehman Brothers.

 

Karlsruhe German Constitutional Court (Updated: 9 May 21)
Monitor: Decision re ECB PEPP (QE)
Could be revoked causing major impact on the German economy

 

China vs India vs Pakistan– Monitor conflicts along border.

 

 

 

 

Archive - 28th Jan 2024

 

 

MAX NewsWatch List

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

28th​​ January 2024​​ .

 


Market Open Times​​ (NY Time): 
Tokyo 7pm  –  Frankfurt 2am ​​ – ​​ London 3am ​​ – ​​ US 8am
Be careful when ​​ Daylight ​​ Saving Changes are in play

 

All Times are in New York Times

 

Impact

Date

Time

Cur.

News Event

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

All TFs

Sun ​​ Jan 28

4:45 p.m.

NZD

Trade Balance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Mon Jan 29

7:30 p.m.

AUD

Retail Sales m/m

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

All TFs

Tue Jan 30

2:00 a.m.

CHF

Trade Balance

 

Monitor

Tue Jan 30

3:00 a.m.

CHF

KOF​​ Economic Barometer

 

Monitor

Tue Jan 30

4:00 a.m.

EUR

German Prelim GDP q/q

 

Monitor

Tue Jan 30

5:00 a.m.

EUR

Prelim Flash GDP q/q

 

Monitor

Tue Jan 30

Tentative

EUR

Italian 10-y Bond Auction

 

All TFs

Tue Jan 30

10:00 a.m.

USD

CB Consumer​​ Confidence

 

Monitor

Tue Jan 30

6:50 p.m.

JPY

BOJ Summary of Opinions

 

Monitor

Tue Jan 30

7:00 p.m.

NZD

ANZ Business Confidence

 

All TFs

Tue Jan 30

7:30 p.m.

AUD

CPI q/q

 

All TFs

Tue Jan 30

7:30 p.m.

AUD

Trimmed Mean CPI q/q

 

Monitor

Tue Jan 30

8:30 p.m.

CNY

Manufacturing PMI

 

Monitor

Tue Jan 30

8:30 p.m.

CNY

Non-Manufacturing PMI

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Wed Jan 31

12:00 a.m.

JPY

Consumer Confidence

 

Under H4

Wed Jan 31

2:00 a.m.

GBP

Nationwide HPI m/m

 

Monitor

Wed Jan 31

All Day

EUR

German​​ Prelim CPI m/m

 

Monitor

Wed Jan 31

4:00 a.m.

CHF

Credit Suisse Economic Expectations

 

Monitor

Wed Jan 31

Tentative

EUR

German 10-y Bond Auction

 

Under H4

Wed Jan 31

8:15 a.m.

USD

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

 

All TFs

Wed Jan 31

8:30 a.m.

CAD

GDP​​ m/m

 

Under H4

Wed Jan 31

9:45 a.m.

USD

Chicago PMI

 

Monitor

Wed Jan 31

10:30 a.m.

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

 

Hi Impact

Wed Jan 31

2:00 p.m.

USD

Federal Funds Rate

 

Hi Impact

Wed Jan 31

2:00 p.m.

USD

FOMC Statement

 

Hi Impact

Wed Jan 31

2:30 p.m.

USD

FOMC Press Conference

 

Monitor

Wed Jan 31

8:45 p.m.

CNY

Caixin Manufacturing PMI

 

Monitor

Wed Jan 31

10:35 p.m.

JPY

10-y Bond Auction

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Thu Feb 1

12:30 a.m.

AUD

Commodity Prices y/y

 

Monitor

Thu Feb 1

5:00 a.m.

EUR

Core CPI Flash​​ Estimate y/y

 

Monitor

Thu Feb 1

5:00 a.m.

EUR

CPI Flash Estimate y/y

 

Monitor

Thu Feb 1

5:00 a.m.

EUR

Unemployment Rate

 

Monitor

Thu Feb 1

Tentative

EUR

Spanish 10-y Bond Auction

 

Monitor

Thu Feb 1

All Day

All

OPEC-JMMC Meetings

 

Monitor

Thu Feb 1

Tentative

EUR

French 10-y Bond Auction

 

Hi Impact

Thu Feb 1

7:00 a.m.

GBP

BOE Monetary Policy Report

 

Hi Impact

Thu Feb 1

7:00 a.m.

GBP

Monetary Policy Summary

 

Hi Impact

Thu Feb 1

7:00 a.m.

GBP

MPC Official Bank Rate Votes

 

Hi Impact

Thu Feb 1

7:00 a.m.

GBP

Official Bank Rate

 

Monitor

Thu Feb 1

8:30 a.m.

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

Under H4

Thu Feb 1

9:30 a.m.

CAD

Manufacturing PMI

 

Monitor

Thu Feb 1

10:00 a.m.

USD

ISM Manufacturing PMI

 

Monitor

Thu Feb 1

10:00 a.m.

USD

ISM​​ Manufacturing Prices

 

Monitor

Thu Feb 1

10:30 a.m.

USD

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hi Impact

Fri Feb 2

8:30 a.m.

USD

Average Hourly Earnings m/m

 

Hi Impact

Fri Feb 2

8:30 a.m.

USD

Non-Farm Employment Change

 

Hi Impact

Fri Feb 2

8:30 a.m.

USD

Unemployment Rate

 

Hi Impact

Fri Feb 2

8:32 a.m.

USD

NFP Revision

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

N.A.

Sat Feb 3

​​ 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

18.57 cm x 0.5 Row height,​​ 


“Top Pairs” Lists


28th​​ January 2024

 

The Top Pairs below are ones that have moved the most in the past 4 weeks.
They are listed in $ order: largest $ to smallest $ movers.

Pick the “low-hanging fruit” i.e. pairs that have moved the​​ most,​​ 
as they are more likely to move this week.

 

Last week

 

 

 

 

1

GBPJPY

141

950

Suggested

Best Pairs

2

USDJPY

127

858

3

CHFJPY

122

822

4

GBPNZD

132

806

5

GBPUSD

79

793

6

EURJPY

114

773

7

GBPAUD

114

750

8

USDCHF

63

728

9

EURNZD

111

675

10

GBPCAD

90

670

11

EURAUD

102

668

Less stressful?​​ 

12

GBPCHF

57

658

Maybe less profitable,

13

EURUSD

63

633

maybe easier trades?

14

CADJPY

87

587

 

15

AUDUSD

57

572

 

 

16

EURCAD

73

544

 

17

NZDUSD

53

533

 

 

18

EURCHF

43

493

 

19

USDCAD

66

493

​​ 

20

CADCHF

42

484

​​ 

21

AUDCHF

38

438

​​ 

22

AUDJPY

64

435

Poorer performers:

23

NZDCHF

36

418

Much less volatility &

24

NZDJPY

59

398

likely less profit from

25

EURGBP

31

388

these pairs based on

26

NZDCAD

52

386

their past performance

27

AUDCAD

52

385

 

28

AUDNZD

43

263

 

#E5F8FF

 

 

 

Short List of Each Day’s Top Pairs

Use these suggested pairs to help limit the pairs you monitor each day.
These pairs use the News Events to help narrow the​​ selection.
MAX Courses will teach you how to make this table for yourself.

Pairs at the top have more important News Events (e.g. Hi Impact) than lower pairs.

 

 

Day

Mon 29th ​​​​ Jan

Tues​​ 30

Wed​​ 31

Thur​​ Feb 1st​​ 

Fri 2

 

 

1st​​ 
Choices

GBPNZD or EURNZD

USDCHF or USDJPY

GBPUSD or USDJPY

GBPCAD or​​ GBPJPY

USDJPY or GBPUSD

GBPJPY or USDJPY

CHFJPY or GBPUSD

USDCHF or GBPAUD

GBPNZD or GBPUSD

USDCHF or GBPJPY

 

2nd​​ 
Choices

CHFJPY or GBPUSD

GBPJPY or GBPNZD

GBPCAD, GBPJPY or GBPNZD

GBPAUD or USDJPY

CHFJPY or GBPNZD

 

 

 

 

 

Smooth Movers


These pairs might be less volatile & easier to trade.

 

 

 

Forex Pairs


If you are uncomfortable with the faster more volatile pairs above, you could consider monitoring/trading these ones instead.


Less money, but​​ possibly less volatility & stress.

 

 

Indices


Consider trading these indices, too.
Be careful, take your time & make certain you know how they move. They use points & fractions of points.
Some brokers allow trading the Indices by CFDs, instead of​​ Futures.​​ 
Check with your broker for more info.

 

  • EURAUD

  • GBPCHF

  • EURUSD

  • CADJPY

  • AUDUSD

  • DAX

  • DOW Jones

  • NASDAQ

  • S&P 500

  • FTS100

  • NK225

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Longer Term Issues​​ 


28th​​ January 2024


Last modified: ​​  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ USA Govt Shutdown - March? 19 Jan 2024

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ 

​​ 

​​ Critical Items

    – Impact: Possible Immediate Impact

 

   ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ 

All Countries– Inflation ​​ ​​ (Added:  30th​​ April 2023)
–​​ Closely monitor the Central Banks (Fed & others) for​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Recession mitigation & Interest Rate Changes.

 

USSR/Ukraine – Monitor (Updated: 18th Sept 2022,24 Feb 2022 & 2021))

 


Israel & Iran & Gaza/Hamas – Monitor – Conflict​​ Escalation & Possible Nuclear Arsenal

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​  (Update: 14 Oct 2023, ​​ 22 Aug 21)
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Monitor - ​​ Red Sea skirmishes ​​ ​​ (Added: ​​ 23rd​​ Dec​​ 2023)

China – possible deflation setting up  ​​ ​​ ​​​​ –​​ (Updated: 6th​​ Jan 2024, 16 Dec 2023, Added:  13th Aug 2023)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor ​​ - impact on trading partners​​ - esp Aus & NZ

 ​​ ​​​​  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1235581-china-new-loans-plunge-to-2009-low-in?&highlight=china
 ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Monitor – Another bank, Zhongzhi, has collapsed. It supported construction companies & they are weak.​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://techstory.in/china-deals-with-debt-blow/

 

           ​​ 

Silicon Valley Bank collapse​​ + contagion?​​  ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Updated 18 March 2023, Added:  11 March 2023)

 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor: Still ongoing impacts in US & includes the global banking system.
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ SVB, Silvergate, Signature, Credit Suisse & now First Republic
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_banking_crisis​​ 

BRICs – 5 more countries have joined  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Added:  11 March 2023)
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.cmegroup.com/openmarkets/fx/2023/Are-Threats-to-the-USDs-Role-as-a-Reserve-Currency-Real.html

 

 

All Countries– Covid19 – Corona Virus
– Monitor for business changes.

 

US vs China– Monitor Trade war
Pay attention to any escalation 

 

 

China- Evergrande issue  (Updated: 25 Nov 2023, 19 Aug 2023 ​​ & 26​​ Aug 21)
– Zhongzhi Enterprise Group ( China’s largest shadow bank) is declaring itself “severely insolvent.” Involved in trust, wealth funds & real estate projects & management.​​ 

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://english.elpais.com/economy-and-business/2023-11-24/zhongzhi-one-of-chinas-major-shadow-banks-declares-itself-severely-insolvent.html

– Evergrande has filed for bankruptcy in the US

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.reuters.com/legal/china-evergrande-files-chapter-15-bankruptcy-us-court-filing-2023-08-17/
– Monitor as it could impact China’s banking system
– Evergrande defaulted on an interest payment to Australia 1st Oct 2021


Goldman Sachs Analysis – Be prudent about the analysis re US economy
(22 Aug 2021)


Afghanistan – Unfolding Situation (Updated: 22 Aug 21)

 

 

 

​​ 

​​ Important Items

    – Impact: Medium Term Impact

 

 

 

US Dollar losing primacy as Reserve Currency  (Added:  23 March 2022)
   Russia demanding Roubles or Yuan instead of USD for payments.
https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1146816-the-us-dollars-global-standing-as-the-top
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/putin-says-russia-will-start-selling-gas-unfriendly-countries-roubles-2022-03-23/

 


Russia Rouble Unsteady  ​​ ​​ ​​​​ – (Added:  15h July 2023)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor ​​ -​​ impact from sanctions & war
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.forexfactory.com/search?searchid=44391641

 

 

USSR Leadership issues ​​ – Monitor (Added:  1st July 2023)

 

 

USSR/Balkin states​​ –​​ Monitor (Added 1 Oct 2023)
           ​​ Conflicts are starting to be seen​​ 

 

Banks under Scrutiny by ECB  ​​ ​​​​ – (Added:  4th December 2022)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor for limited credit causing financial problems​​ 
 ​​​​ ​​ Effects Deutsche Bank & BNP Paribas

US-Iran Tension Escalation

USA Govt Shutdown​​ in March,​​ January?​​ November?​​ – Monitor​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Updated: 19th​​ Jan 2024, 16 Dec 2023, Oct 2023, Nov 2023 )
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ ​​ https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/federal-government-shutdown-funding-11-14-23/index.html
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.raymondjames.com/commentary-and-insights/economy-policy/2023/09/29/weekly-economic-commentary​​ 

 


China/Taiwan – Monitor for possible aggression
as per Chinese general saying military action is considered.

 

EU – Poland –​​ Monitor for possible Issues (Updated: 9 Oct 2021)
   after Poland Constitutional Court decision. PolExit?

European Union Dissolving? Monitor the EU for
interstate difficulties exacerbated by the Covid19 epidemic
via EU Council meeting relationships degrading
– also monitor Germany’s Constitutional Court Ruling
for future implications – re EURO viability, EU partnerships,
& possible end of EU? More info here: www.cnbc.com/


China/Hong Kong – Monitor

EU – Germany’s political situation is not settled
Additional EU Entrants possible?

Syria – Could disrupt in the markets

Libya – Geopolitical/Military escalation could affect Oil Prices

ECB – Monitor statements for weakening impacts
ECB outlook is becoming more pessimistic re EU Economy
Monitor any action taken if/when QE ceases at Year End.

 

 

 

 

​​ Ongoing Items

    – Impact: Very Long Term Repercussions

 

 

 

Italy – Monitor (Updated: 17 July 2022, -​​ 14 Feb 2021)
Draghi quits as PM, could still impact EU
– Monitor – Budget & Banking System
– Monitor –​​ Possible EU Penalty & alternate currency

OPEC – Monitor (Updated: 07 July 2023) 
 – Unexpectedly dropped the price​​ 
 – considering dropping USD as denomination currency
 – Influence of terrorism on production has risen.

 

German Bank (WireCard) Bankrupted – Monitor for
possible future ramifications for stability
– eg domino effect a la Lehman Brothers.

 

Karlsruhe German Constitutional Court (Updated: 9 May 21)
Monitor: Decision re ECB PEPP (QE)
Could be revoked causing major impact on the German economy

 

China vs India vs Pakistan– Monitor conflicts along border.

 

 

 

 

Archive - 21st Jan 2024

 

 

MAX NewsWatch List

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

21st​​ January 2024​​ 

 


Market Open Times​​ (NY Time): 
Tokyo 7pm  –  Frankfurt 2am ​​ – ​​ London 3am ​​ – ​​ US 8am
Be careful when ​​ Daylight ​​ Saving Changes are in play

 

All Times are in New York Times

 

Impact

Date

Time

Cur.

News Event

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

N.A.

Sun Jan 21

8:20 p.m.

 

 

 

N.A.

Sun Jan 21

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Mon Jan 22

7:30 p.m.

AUD

NAB Business Confidence

 

Hi Impact

Mon Jan 22

Tentative

JPY

Monetary Policy Statement

 

Hi Impact

Mon Jan 22

Tentative

JPY

BOJ Policy Rate

 

Hi Impact

Mon Jan 22

Tentative

JPY

BOJ Outlook Report

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Tue Jan 23

12:00 a.m.

JPY

BOJ Core CPI y/y

 

Hi Impact

Tue Jan 23

Tentative

JPY

BOJ Press Conference

 

All TFs

Tue Jan 23

4:45 p.m.

NZD

CPI q/q

 

Monitor

Tue Jan 23

6:30 p.m.

AUD

MI​​ Leading Index m/m

 

All TFs

Tue Jan 23

6:50 p.m.

JPY

Trade Balance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Wed Jan 24

4:00 a.m.

EUR

Flash Manufacturing PMI

 

Monitor

Wed Jan 24

4:00 a.m.

EUR

Flash Services PMI

 

Monitor

Wed Jan 24

Tentative

EUR

German Buba Monthly Report

 

Hi​​ Impact

Wed Jan 24

9:45 a.m.

CAD

BOC Monetary Policy Report

 

Hi Impact

Wed Jan 24

9:45 a.m.

CAD

BOC Rate Statement

 

Hi Impact

Wed Jan 24

9:45 a.m.

CAD

Overnight Rate

 

Monitor

Wed Jan 24

9:45 a.m.

USD

Flash Manufacturing PMI

 

Monitor

Wed Jan 24

9:45​​ a.m.

USD

Flash Services PMI

 

Hi Impact

Wed Jan 24

10:30 a.m.

CAD

BOC Press Conference

 

Monitor

Wed Jan 24

10:30 a.m.

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

 

Monitor

Wed Jan 24

7:30 p.m.

AUD

RBA Bulletin

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Thu Jan 25

4:00 a.m.

EUR

German ifo​​ Business Climate

 

Hi Impact

Thu Jan 25

8:15 a.m.

EUR

Main Refinancing Rate

 

Hi Impact

Thu Jan 25

8:15 a.m.

EUR

Monetary Policy Statement

 

All TFs

Thu Jan 25

8:30 a.m.

USD

Advance GDP q/q

 

Monitor

Thu Jan 25

8:30 a.m.

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

All​​ TFs

Thu Jan 25

8:30 a.m.

USD

Advance GDP Price Index q/q

 

Under H4

Thu Jan 25

8:30 a.m.

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders m/m

 

Under H4

Thu Jan 25

8:30 a.m.

USD

Durable Goods Orders m/m

 

Hi Impact

Thu Jan 25

8:45 a.m.

EUR

ECB Press Conference

 

Monitor

Thu Jan 25

10:00 a.m.

USD

New Home Sales

 

Monitor

Thu Jan 25

10:30 a.m.

USD

Natural Gas Storage

 

Holiday

Thu Jan 25

All Day

AUD

Bank Holiday

 

Monitor

Thu Jan 25

6:30 p.m.

JPY

Tokyo Core CPI y/y

 

Monitor

Thu Jan 25

6:50 p.m.

JPY

Monetary​​ Policy Meeting Minutes

 

Monitor

Thu Jan 25

7:01 p.m.

GBP

GfK Consumer Confidence

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Fri Jan 26

2:00 a.m.

EUR

German GfK Consumer Climate

 

All TFs

Fri Jan 26

4:00 a.m.

EUR

M3 Money Supply y/y

 

All TFs

Fri Jan 26

8:30 a.m.

USD

Core PCE​​ Price Index m/m

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

N.A.

Sat Jan 27

.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


“Top Pairs” Lists


21st​​ January 2024

 

The Top Pairs below are ones that have moved the most in the past 4 weeks.
They are listed in $ order: largest $ to smallest $ movers.

Pick the “low-hanging fruit” i.e. pairs that have moved the​​ most,​​ 
as they are more likely to move this week.

 

Last week

Pair

Avg Daily​​ 
Pip Range

Avg Daily
 ​​​​ $ Range ​​ 

 

1

GBPJPY

142

957

Suggested

Best Pairs

2

CHFJPY

126

854

3

USDJPY

123

829

4

GBPUSD

79

785

5

GBPNZD

128

782

6

GBPAUD

118

779

7

EURJPY

114

768

8

USDCHF

66

765

9

GBPCHF

66

761

10

EURAUD

102

676

11

GBPCAD

90

669

Less stressful?​​ 

12

EURNZD

106

650

Maybe​​ less profitable,

13

EURUSD

59

591

maybe​​ easier trades?

14

EURCHF

50

577

 

15

CADJPY

85

573

 

 

16

AUDUSD

55

551

 

17

EURCAD

72

539

 

 

18

CADCHF

45

520

 

19

NZDUSD

50

501

​​ 

20

AUDCHF

43

490

​​ 

21

USDCAD

62

462

​​ 

22

AUDJPY

67

454

Poorer performers:

23

NZDCHF

38

437

Much less volatility &

24

NZDJPY

61

411

likely less profit from

25

EURGBP

31

396

these pairs based on

26

AUDCAD

52

387

their past performance

27

NZDCAD

50

369

 

28

AUDNZD

39

237

 

#E5F8FF

 

 

 

Short List of Each Day’s Top Pairs

Use these suggested pairs to help limit the pairs you monitor each day.
These pairs use the News Events to​​ help narrow the selection.
MAX Courses will teach you how to make this table for yourself.

Pairs at the top have more important News Events (e.g. Hi Impact) than lower pairs.

 

 

Day

Mon​​ 22nd​​ ​​ Jan

Tues​​ 23

Wed​​ 24

Thur​​ 25​​ 

Fri​​ 26

 

 

1st​​ 
Choices

GBPJPY or CHFJPY

GBPJPY or CHFJPY

GBPJPY or CHFJPY

EURJPY​​ or​​ EURAUD

USDJPY or GBPUSD

USDJPY or GBPUSD

USDJPY or​​ EURJPY​​ 

USDJPY or EURJPY

USDJPY​​ or​​ GBPUSD

EURJPY or USDCHF

 

2nd​​ 
Choices

GBPNZD or GBPAUD

GBPNZD​​ or GBPUSD

GBPUSD or GBPNZD

USDCHF or GBPJPY

EURAUD or GBPJPY

 

 

 

 

 

Smooth Movers


These pairs might be less volatile & easier to trade.

 

 

 

Forex Pairs


If you are uncomfortable with the faster more volatile pairs above, you could consider monitoring/trading these ones​​ instead.


Less money, but possibly less volatility & stress.

 

 

Indices


Consider trading these indices, too.
Be careful, take your time & make certain you know how they move. They use points & fractions of points.
Some brokers allow trading the Indices by​​ CFDs, instead of Futures.​​ 
Check with your broker for more info.

 

  • GBPCAD

  • EURNZD

  • EURUSD

  • DAX

  • DOW Jones

  • NASDAQ

  • S&P 500

  • FTS100

  • NK225

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Longer Term Issues​​ 


21st​​ January 2024


Last modified: ​​  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ USA Govt Shutdown​​ - March?​​ 19 Jan 2024

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ 

​​ 

​​ Critical Items

    – Impact: Possible Immediate Impact

 

   ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ 

All Countries– Inflation ​​ ​​ (Added:  30th April 2023)
–​​ Closely monitor the Central Banks (Fed & others) for​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Recession mitigation & Interest Rate Changes.

 

USSR/Ukraine – Monitor (Updated: 18th Sept 2022,24 Feb 2022 & 2021))

 


Israel & Iran & Gaza/Hamas – Monitor – Conflict Escalation & Possible Nuclear Arsenal

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​  (Update: 14 Oct 2023, ​​ 22 Aug 21)
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Monitor - ​​ Red Sea skirmishes ​​ ​​ (Added: ​​ 23rd​​ Dec 2023)

China – possible deflation setting up  ​​ ​​ ​​​​ –​​ (Updated: 6th​​ Jan 2024, 16 Dec 2023, Added:  13th Aug 2023)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor ​​ - impact on trading partners​​ - esp Aus & NZ

 ​​ ​​​​  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1235581-china-new-loans-plunge-to-2009-low-in?&highlight=china
 ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Monitor – Another bank, Zhongzhi, has collapsed. It supported construction companies & they are weak.​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://techstory.in/china-deals-with-debt-blow/

 

           ​​ 

Silicon Valley Bank collapse​​ + contagion?​​  ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Updated 18 March 2023, Added:  11 March 2023)

 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor: Still ongoing impacts in US & includes the global banking system.
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ SVB, Silvergate, Signature, Credit Suisse & now First Republic
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_banking_crisis​​ 

BRICs – 5 more countries have joined  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Added:  11 March 2023)
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.cmegroup.com/openmarkets/fx/2023/Are-Threats-to-the-USDs-Role-as-a-Reserve-Currency-Real.html

 

 

All Countries– Covid19 – Corona Virus
– Monitor for business changes.

 

US vs China– Monitor Trade war
Pay attention to any escalation 

 

 

China- Evergrande issue  (Updated: 25 Nov 2023, 19 Aug 2023 ​​ & 26 Aug 21)
– Zhongzhi Enterprise Group ( China’s largest shadow bank) is declaring itself “severely insolvent.” Involved in trust, wealth funds & real estate projects & management.​​ 

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://english.elpais.com/economy-and-business/2023-11-24/zhongzhi-one-of-chinas-major-shadow-banks-declares-itself-severely-insolvent.html

– Evergrande has filed for bankruptcy in the US

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.reuters.com/legal/china-evergrande-files-chapter-15-bankruptcy-us-court-filing-2023-08-17/
– Monitor as it could impact China’s banking system
– Evergrande defaulted on an interest payment to Australia 1st Oct 2021


Goldman Sachs Analysis – Be prudent about the analysis re US economy
(22 Aug 2021)


Afghanistan –​​ Unfolding Situation (Updated: 22 Aug 21)

 

 

 

​​ 

​​ Important Items

    – Impact: Medium Term Impact

 

 

 

US Dollar losing primacy as Reserve Currency  (Added:  23 March 2022)
   Russia demanding Roubles or Yuan instead of USD for payments.
https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1146816-the-us-dollars-global-standing-as-the-top
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/putin-says-russia-will-start-selling-gas-unfriendly-countries-roubles-2022-03-23/

 


Russia Rouble Unsteady  ​​ ​​ ​​​​ – (Added:  15h July 2023)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor ​​ -​​ impact from sanctions & war
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.forexfactory.com/search?searchid=44391641

 

 

USSR Leadership issues ​​ – Monitor (Added:  1st July 2023)

 

 

USSR/Balkin states​​ –​​ Monitor (Added 1 Oct 2023)
           ​​ Conflicts are starting to be seen​​ 

 

Banks under Scrutiny by ECB  ​​ ​​​​ – (Added:  4th December 2022)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor for limited credit causing financial problems​​ 
 ​​​​ ​​ Effects Deutsche Bank & BNP Paribas

US-Iran Tension Escalation

USA Govt Shutdown​​ in March,​​ January?​​ November?​​ – Monitor​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Updated: 19th​​ Jan 2024, 16 Dec​​ 2023, Oct 2023, Nov 2023 )
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ 
​​ https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/federal-government-shutdown-funding-11-14-23/index.html
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ 
https://www.raymondjames.com/commentary-and-insights/economy-policy/2023/09/29/weekly-economic-commentary​​ 

 


China/Taiwan – Monitor for possible aggression
as per Chinese general saying military action is considered.

 

EU – Poland – Monitor for possible Issues (Updated: 9 Oct 2021)
   after Poland Constitutional Court decision. PolExit?

European Union​​ Dissolving? Monitor the EU for
interstate difficulties exacerbated by the Covid19 epidemic
via EU Council meeting relationships degrading
– also monitor Germany’s Constitutional Court Ruling
for future implications – re EURO viability, EU partnerships,
& possible end of EU? More info here: www.cnbc.com/


China/Hong Kong – Monitor

EU – Germany’s political situation is not settled
Additional EU Entrants possible?

Syria – Could disrupt in the markets

Libya – Geopolitical/Military escalation could affect Oil Prices

ECB – Monitor statements for weakening impacts
ECB outlook is becoming more pessimistic re EU Economy
Monitor any action taken if/when QE ceases at Year End.

 

 

 

 

​​ Ongoing Items

    – Impact: Very Long Term Repercussions

 

 

 

Italy –​​ Monitor (Updated: 17 July 2022, -​​ 14 Feb 2021)
Draghi quits as PM, could still impact EU
– Monitor – Budget & Banking System
– Monitor – Possible EU Penalty & alternate currency

OPEC – Monitor (Updated: 07 July 2023) 
 – Unexpectedly dropped the​​ price​​ 
 – considering dropping USD as denomination currency
 – Influence of terrorism on production has risen.

 

German Bank (WireCard) Bankrupted – Monitor for
possible future ramifications for stability
– eg domino effect a la Lehman Brothers.

 

Karlsruhe​​ German Constitutional Court (Updated: 9 May 21)
Monitor: Decision re ECB PEPP (QE)
Could be revoked causing major impact on the German economy

 

China vs India vs Pakistan– Monitor conflicts along border.

 

 

 

 

Archive - 14th Jan 2024

 

 

MAX NewsWatch List

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

14th​​ January 2024​​ 

 


Market Open Times​​ 
(NY Time): 
Tokyo 7pm  –  Frankfurt 2am ​​ – ​​ London 3am ​​ – ​​ US 8am
Be careful when ​​ Daylight ​​ Saving Changes are in play

 

All Times are in New York Times

 

Impact

Date

Time

Cur.

News Event

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Sun Jan 14

7:00 p.m.

AUD

MI Inflation Gauge m/m

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Mon Jan 15

Day 1

All

WEF Annual Meetings

 

Under H4

Mon Jan 15

5:00 a.m.

EUR

Industrial Production m/m

 

All TFs

Mon Jan 15

5:00 a.m.

EUR

Trade Balance

 

Monitor

Mon Jan 15

All Day

EUR

Eurogroup Meetings

 

Holiday

Mon Jan 15

All Day

USD

Bank Holiday

 

Under H4

Mon Jan 15

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Manufacturing Sales m/m

 

Under H4

Mon Jan 15

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Wholesale Sales m/m

 

Monitor

Mon Jan 15

10:30 a.m.

CAD

BOC Business Outlook Survey

 

Monitor

Mon Jan 15

4:00 p.m.

NZD

NZIER Business Confidence

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Tue Jan 16

2:00 a.m.

EUR

German Final CPI m/m

 

Monitor

Tue Jan 16

2:00 a.m.

GBP

Average Earnings Index 3m/y

 

Monitor

Tue Jan 16

Day 2

All

WEF Annual Meetings

 

Under H4

Tue Jan 16

5:00 a.m.

EUR

German ZEW Economic Sentiment

 

Under H4

Tue Jan 16

5:00 a.m.

EUR

ZEW Economic Sentiment

 

Monitor

Tue Jan 16

All Day

EUR

ECOFIN Meetings

 

Monitor

Tue Jan 16

8:15 a.m.

CAD

Housing Starts

 

All TFs

Tue Jan 16

8:30 a.m.

CAD

CPI m/m

 

All TFs

Tue Jan 16

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Core CPI m/m

 

Monitor

Tue Jan 16

10:00 a.m.

GBP

BOE Gov Bailey Speaks/Testifies

 

All TFs

Tue Jan 16

Tentative

NZD

GDT Price Index

 

Monitor

Tue Jan 16

9:00 p.m.

CNY

GDP q/y

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Wed Jan 17

2:00 a.m.

GBP

CPI y/y

 

Monitor

Wed Jan 17

2:00 a.m.

GBP

Core CPI y/y

 

Monitor

Thu Jan 18

Day 4

All

WEF Annual Meetings

 

Monitor

Wed Jan 17

5:00 a.m.

EUR

Final Core CPI y/y

 

Monitor

Wed Jan 17

5:00 a.m.

EUR

Final CPI y/y

 

Monitor

Wed Jan 17

Tentative

GBP

10-y Bond Auction

 

Monitor

Wed Jan 17

Tentative

EUR

German 30-y Bond Auction

 

Under H4

Wed Jan 17

8:30 a.m.

USD

Core Retail Sales m/m

 

Under H4

Wed Jan 17

8:30 a.m.

USD

Retail Sales m/m

 

Under H4

Wed Jan 17

9:15 a.m.

USD

Industrial Production m/m

 

Monitor

Wed Jan 17

2:00 p.m.

USD

Beige Book

 

Monitor

Wed Jan 17

7:00 p.m.

AUD

MI Inflation Expectations

 

Under H4

Wed Jan 17

7:30 p.m.

AUD

Employment Change

 

Under H4

Wed Jan 17

7:30 p.m.

AUD

Unemployment Rate

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

All TFs

Thu Jan 18

4:00 a.m.

EUR

Current Account

 

Monitor

Thu Jan 18

Day 4

All

WEF Annual Meetings

 

Monitor

Thu Jan 18

4:30 a.m.

GBP

BOE Credit Conditions Survey

 

Monitor

Thu Jan 18

7:30 a.m.

EUR

ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

 

Monitor

Thu Jan 18

8:30 a.m.

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

Under H4

Thu Jan 18

8:30 a.m.

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

 

Monitor

Thu Jan 18

8:30 a.m.

USD

Housing Starts

 

Monitor

Thu Jan 18

10:30 a.m.

USD

Natural Gas Storage

 

Monitor

Thu Jan 18

11:00 a.m.

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

 

Monitor

Thu Jan 18

6:30 p.m.

JPY

National Core CPI y/y

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Under H4

Fri Jan 19

2:00 a.m.

GBP

Retail Sales m/m

 

Monitor

Fri Jan 19

2:30 a.m.

CHF

PPI m/m

 

Monitor

Fri Jan 19

Day 5

All

WEF Annual Meetings

 

Under H4

Fri Jan 19

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Core Retail Sales m/m

 

Under H4

Fri Jan 19

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Retail Sales m/m

 

Under H4

Fri Jan 19

10:00 a.m.

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

 

Monitor

Fri Jan 19

10:00 a.m.

USD

Existing Home Sales

 

Under H4

Fri Jan 19

10:00 a.m.

USD

Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

N.A.

Sat Jan 20

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


“Top Pairs” Lists


14th​​ January 2024

 

The Top Pairs below are ones that have moved the most in the past 4 weeks.
They are listed in $ order: largest $ to smallest $ movers.

Pick the “low-hanging fruit” i.e. pairs that have moved the​​ most,​​ 
as they are more likely to move this week.

 

Last week

Pair

Avg Daily​​ 
Pip Range

Avg Daily
 ​​​​ $ Range ​​ 

 

1

GBPJPY

158

1090

Suggested

Best Pairs

2

CHFJPY

141

974

3

USDJPY

129

889

4

EURJPY

127

880

5

GBPUSD

82

822

6

USDCHF

69

806

7

GBPCHF

68

795

8

GBPNZD

127

790

9

GBPAUD

118

786

10

GBPCAD

94

705

11

EURNZD

106

665

Less stressful?​​ 

12

EURAUD

99

663

Possibly less profitable

13

CADJPY

94

648

but possibly easier​​ 

14

EURUSD

61

608

to trade.

15

EURCHF

50

585

 

 

16

AUDJPY

80

554

 

17

AUDUSD

55

550

 

 

18

EURCAD

74

548

 

19

CADCHF

46

539

​​ 

20

NZDUSD

50

503

​​ 

21

NZDJPY

72

495

​​ 

22

AUDCHF

41

476

Poorer performers:

23

USDCAD

64

475

Much less volatility &

24

NZDCHF

39

453

likely less profit from

25

EURGBP

33

414

these pairs based on

26

AUDCAD

51

382

their past performance

27

NZDCAD

48

358

 

28

AUDNZD

38

235

 

#E5F8FF

 

 

 

Short List of Each Day’s Top Pairs

Use these suggested pairs to help limit the pairs you monitor each day.
These pairs use the News Events to help narrow the selection.
MAX Courses will teach you how to make​​ this table for yourself.

Pairs at the top have more important News Events (e.g. Hi Impact) than lower pairs.

 

 

Day

Mon 15th​​ Jan

Tues 16

Wed 17

Thur 18​​ 

Fri 19

 

 

1st​​ 
Choices

EURJPY or GBPCAD

EURJPY or GBPCAD

USDJPY or GBPUSD

USDJPY or EURJPY

GBPUSD or GBPCAD

GBPJPY or CHFJPY

GBPCAD or GBPJPY

USDCHF or GBPJPY

GBPUSD or USDCHF

GBPJPY or USDCHF

 

2nd​​ 
Choices

USDJPY or GBPUSD

CHFJPY or USDJPY

CHFJPY or EURJPY

GBPAUD or GBPJPY

GBPCHF or​​ GBPNZD, GBPAUD

 

 

 

 

 

Smooth Movers


These pairs​​ might be less volatile & easier to trade.

 

 

 

Forex Pairs


If you are uncomfortable with the faster more volatile pairs above, you could consider monitoring/trading these ones instead.


Less money, but possibly less volatility & stress.

 

 

Indices


Consider trading these indices, too.
Be careful, take your time & make certain you know how they move. They use points & fractions of points.
Some brokers allow trading the Indices by CFDs, instead of Futures.​​ 
Check with your broker for more info.

 

  • EURNZD

  • EURAUD

  • CADJPY

  • EURUSD

  • EURCHF

  • AUDJPY

  • AUDUSD

  • DAX

  • DOW Jones

  • NASDAQ

  • S&P 500

  • FTS100

  • NK225

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Longer Term Issues​​ 


14th​​ January 2024


Last modified: ​​ China Bank folds​​ (6th​​ Jan 2024)
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ USA Govt Shutdown? 16 Dec​​ 2023

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Ongoing Mid East conflicts
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ More countries joining the BRICS

 

​​ 

​​ Critical Items

    – Impact: Possible Immediate Impact

 

   ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ 

All Countries– Inflation ​​ ​​ (Added:  30th April 2023)
–​​ Closely monitor the Central Banks (Fed & others) for​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Recession mitigation & Interest Rate Changes.

 

USSR/Ukraine – Monitor (Updated: 18th Sept 2022,24 Feb 2022 & 2021))

 


Israel & Iran & Gaza/Hamas – Monitor – Conflict Escalation & Possible Nuclear Arsenal

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​  (Update: 14 Oct 2023, ​​ 22 Aug 21)
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Monitor - ​​ Red Sea skirmishes ​​ ​​ (Added: ​​ 23rd​​ Dec 2023)

USA Govt Shutdown​​ in January,​​ November?​​ – Monitor November 2023 (Updated: 16 Dec​​ 2023,
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Oct 2023)
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ ​​ https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/federal-government-shutdown-funding-11-14-23/index.html
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.raymondjames.com/commentary-and-insights/economy-policy/2023/09/29/weekly-economic-commentary​​ 

 


China – possible deflation setting up  ​​ ​​ ​​​​ –​​ (Updated: 6th​​ Jan 2024, 16 Dec 2023, Added:  13th Aug 2023)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor ​​ - impact on trading partners​​ - esp Aus & NZ

 ​​ ​​​​  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1235581-china-new-loans-plunge-to-2009-low-in?&highlight=china
 ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Monitor – Another bank, Zhongzhi, has collapsed. It supported construction companies & they are weak.​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://techstory.in/china-deals-with-debt-blow/

 

           ​​ 

Silicon Valley Bank collapse​​ + contagion?​​  ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Updated 18 March 2023, Added:  11 March 2023)

 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor: Still ongoing impacts in US & includes the global banking system.
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ SVB, Silvergate, Signature, Credit Suisse & now First Republic
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_banking_crisis​​ 

BRICs – 5 more countries have joined  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Added:  11 March 2023)
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.cmegroup.com/openmarkets/fx/2023/Are-Threats-to-the-USDs-Role-as-a-Reserve-Currency-Real.html

 

 

All Countries– Covid19 – Corona Virus
– Monitor for business changes.

 

US vs China– Monitor Trade war
Pay attention to any escalation 

 

 

China- Evergrande issue  (Updated: 25 Nov 2023, 19 Aug 2023 ​​ & 26 Aug 21)
– Zhongzhi Enterprise Group ( China’s largest shadow bank) is declaring itself “severely insolvent.” Involved in trust, wealth funds & real estate projects & management.​​ 

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://english.elpais.com/economy-and-business/2023-11-24/zhongzhi-one-of-chinas-major-shadow-banks-declares-itself-severely-insolvent.html

– Evergrande has filed for bankruptcy in the US

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.reuters.com/legal/china-evergrande-files-chapter-15-bankruptcy-us-court-filing-2023-08-17/
– Monitor as it could impact China’s banking system
– Evergrande defaulted on an interest payment to Australia 1st Oct 2021


Goldman Sachs Analysis – Be prudent about the analysis re US economy
(22 Aug 2021)


Afghanistan –​​ Unfolding Situation (Updated: 22 Aug 21)

 

 

 

​​ 

​​ Important Items

    – Impact: Medium Term Impact

 

 

 

US Dollar losing primacy as Reserve Currency  (Added:  23 March 2022)
   Russia demanding Roubles or Yuan instead of USD for payments.
https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1146816-the-us-dollars-global-standing-as-the-top
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/putin-says-russia-will-start-selling-gas-unfriendly-countries-roubles-2022-03-23/

 


Russia Rouble Unsteady  ​​ ​​ ​​​​ – (Added:  15h July 2023)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor ​​ -​​ impact from sanctions & war
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.forexfactory.com/search?searchid=44391641

 

 

USSR Leadership issues ​​ – Monitor (Added:  1st July 2023)

 

 

USSR/Balkin states​​ –​​ Monitor (Added 1 Oct 2023)
           ​​ Conflicts are starting to be seen​​ 

 

Banks under Scrutiny by ECB  ​​ ​​​​ – (Added:  4th December 2022)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor for limited credit causing financial problems​​ 
 ​​​​ ​​ Effects Deutsche Bank & BNP Paribas

US-Iran Tension Escalation

China/Taiwan – Monitor for possible aggression
as per Chinese general saying military action is considered.

 

EU – Poland – Monitor for possible Issues (Updated: 9 Oct 2021)
   after Poland Constitutional Court decision. PolExit?

European Union​​ Dissolving? Monitor the EU for
interstate difficulties exacerbated by the Covid19 epidemic
via EU Council meeting relationships degrading
– also monitor Germany’s Constitutional Court Ruling
for future implications – re EURO viability, EU partnerships,
& possible end of EU? More info here: www.cnbc.com/


China/Hong Kong – Monitor

EU – Germany’s political situation is not settled
Additional EU Entrants possible?

Syria – Could disrupt in the markets

Libya – Geopolitical/Military escalation could affect Oil Prices

ECB – Monitor statements for weakening impacts
ECB outlook is becoming more pessimistic re EU Economy
Monitor any action taken if/when QE ceases at Year End.

 

 

 

 

​​ Ongoing Items

    – Impact: Very Long Term Repercussions

 

 

 

Italy –​​ Monitor (Updated: 17 July 2022, -​​ 14 Feb 2021)
Draghi quits as PM, could still impact EU
– Monitor – Budget & Banking System
– Monitor – Possible EU Penalty & alternate currency

OPEC – Monitor (Updated: 07 July 2023) 
 – Unexpectedly dropped the​​ price​​ 
 – considering dropping USD as denomination currency
 – Influence of terrorism on production has risen.

 

German Bank (WireCard) Bankrupted – Monitor for
possible future ramifications for stability
– eg domino effect a la Lehman Brothers.

 

Karlsruhe​​ German Constitutional Court (Updated: 9 May 21)
Monitor: Decision re ECB PEPP (QE)
Could be revoked causing major impact on the German economy

 

China vs India vs Pakistan– Monitor conflicts along border.

 

 

 

 

Archive - 7th January 2024

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MAX NewsWatch List

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

7th​​ January 2024​​ 

 


Market Open Times​​ (NY Time): 
Tokyo 7pm  –  Frankfurt 2am ​​ – ​​ London 3am ​​ – ​​ US 8am
Be careful when ​​ Daylight ​​ Saving Changes are in play

 

All Times are in New York​​ Times

 

Impact

Date

Time

Cur.

News Event

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Holiday

Sun Jan 7

All Day

JPY

Bank Holiday

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

All TFs

Mon Jan 8

2:30 a.m.

CHF

CPI m/m

 

 

Monitor

Mon Jan 8

6:30 p.m.

JPY

Tokyo Core CPI y/y

 

 

Monitor

Mon Jan 8

7:30 p.m.

AUD

Retail Sales m/m

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Tue Jan 9

5:00 a.m.

EUR

Unemployment Rate

 

 

All TFs

Tue Jan 9

8:30 a.m.

CAD

Trade Balance

 

 

All TFs

Tue Jan 9

8:30 a.m.

USD

Trade Balance

 

 

Monitor

Tue Jan 9

10:35 p.m.

JPY

10-y Bond Auction

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Wed Jan 10

10th-15th

CNY

New Loans

 

 

Monitor

Wed Jan 10

10th-15th

CNY

M2 Money Supply y/y

 

 

Monitor

Wed Jan 10

Tentative

EUR

German 10-y Bond Auction

 

 

Monitor

Wed Jan 10

10:30 a.m.

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

 

 

Monitor

Wed Jan 10

1:01 p.m.

USD

10-y Bond​​ Auction

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Thu Jan 11

4:00 a.m.

EUR

ECB Economic Bulletin

 

 

All TFs

Thu Jan 11

8:30 a.m.

USD

Core CPI m/m

 

 

All TFs

Thu Jan 11

8:30 a.m.

USD

CPI m/m

 

 

Monitor

Thu Jan 11

8:30 a.m.

USD

CPI y/y

 

 

Monitor

Thu Jan 11

8:30 a.m.

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

 

Monitor

Thu Jan 11

10:30 a.m.

USD

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

Monitor

Thu Jan 11

1:01 p.m.

USD

30-y Bond Auction

 

 

Monitor

Thu Jan 11

2:00 p.m.

USD

Federal Budget Balance

 

 

All TFs

Thu Jan 11

6:50 p.m.

JPY

Current Account

 

 

Monitor

Thu Jan 11

8:30 p.m.

CNY

CPI y/y

 

 

Monitor

Thu Jan 11

8:30 p.m.

CNY

PPI y/y

 

 

Monitor

Thu Jan 11

Tentative

CNY

Trade Balance

 

 

Monitor

Thu Jan 11

Tentative

CNY

USD-Denominated Trade Balance

 

 

Monitor

Thu Jan 11

10:35 p.m.

JPY

30-y Bond​​ Auction

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monitor

Fri Jan 12

12:00 a.m.

JPY

Economy Watchers Sentiment

 

 

All TFs

Fri Jan 12

2:00 a.m.

GBP

GDP m/m

 

 

Under H4

Fri Jan 12

2:00 a.m.

GBP

Industrial Production m/m

 

 

Under H4

Fri Jan 12

2:00 a.m.

GBP

Manufacturing​​ Production m/m

 

 

Monitor

Fri Jan 12

Tentative

GBP

NIESR GDP Estimate

 

 

Monitor

Fri Jan 12

8:30 a.m.

USD

Core PPI m/m

 

 

Monitor

Fri Jan 12

8:30 a.m.

USD

PPI m/m

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

N.A.

Sat Jan 13

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


“Top Pairs” Lists


7th​​ January 2024

 

The Top Pairs below are ones that have moved the most in the past 4 weeks.
They are listed in $ order: largest $ to smallest $ movers.

Pick the “low-hanging fruit” i.e. pairs that have moved the most,​​ 
as they are more likely to move this week.

 

Last week

Pair

Avg Daily​​ 
Pip Range

Avg Daily
 ​​​​ $ Range ​​ 

 

1

GBPJPY

188

1299

Suggested

Best Pairs

2

CHFJPY

157

1085

3

EURJPY

149

1026

4

USDJPY

147

1013

5

GBPNZD

151

942

6

GBPAUD

139

935

7

GBPUSD

93

928

8

GBPCHF

75

880

9

USDCHF

71

838

10

GBPCAD

106

792

11

EURNZD

127

791

Less stressful?​​ 

12

EURAUD

113

757

Possibly less profitable

13

CADJPY

103

711

but possibly easier​​ 

14

EURUSD

70

702

to trade.

15

EURCHF

56

655

 

 

16

EURCAD

84

631

 

17

AUDUSD

60

597

 

 

18

CADCHF

48

561

 

19

AUDCHF

48

560

​​ 

20

NZDJPY

80

555

​​ 

21

NZDUSD

55

552

​​ 

22

AUDJPY

80

551

Poorer performers:

23

NZDCHF

44

516

Much less volatility &

24

USDCAD

69

513

likely less profit from

25

EURGBP

37

477

these pairs based on

26

AUDCAD

59

438

their past performance

27

NZDCAD

55

411

 

28

AUDNZD

40

251

 

#E5F8FF

 

 

 

Short List of Each Day’s Top Pairs

Use these suggested pairs to help limit the pairs you monitor each day.
These pairs use the News Events to help narrow the selection.
MAX Courses will teach you how to make​​ this table for yourself.

Pairs at the top have more important News Events (e.g. Hi Impact) than lower pairs.

 

 

Day

Mon 8th​​ Jan

Tues 09

Wed 10

Thur 12​​ 

Fri Dec 13

 

 

1st​​ 
Choices

CHFJPY or GBPCHF

USDJPY or GBPUSD

GBPJPY or CHFJPY

USDJPY or GBPUSD

GBPJPY or CHFJPY

USDCHF or GBPJPY

USDCHF or GBPCAD

EURJPY or USDJPY

USDCHF or GBPJPY

EURJPY or USDJPY

 

2nd​​ 
Choices

EURJPY or USDJPY

GBPJPY or CHFJPY

GBPNZD or GBPAUD

CHFJPY or EURJPY

GBPNZD, GBPUSD​​ or GBPAUD

 

 

 

 

 

Smooth Movers


These pairs might be less volatile & easier to trade.

 

 

 

Forex Pairs


If you are uncomfortable with the faster more volatile pairs above, you could consider monitoring/trading these ones instead.


Less money, but possibly less volatility & stress.

 

 

Indices


Consider trading these indices, too.
Be careful, take your time & make certain you know how they move. They use points & fractions of points.

Some brokers allow trading the Indices by CFDs, instead of Futures.​​ 

Check with your broker for more info.

 

  • EURNZD

  • EURAUD

  • CADJPY

  • EURUSD

  • EURCHF

  • EURCAD

  • AUDUSD

  • DAX

  • DOW Jones

  • NASDAQ

  • S&P 500

  • FTS100

  • NK225

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Longer Term Issues​​ 


7th​​ January 2024


Last modified: ​​ China​​ Bank folds​​ (6th​​ Jan 2024)
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ USA Govt Shutdown? 16 Dec​​ 2023

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Ongoing Mid East conflicts
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ ​​  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ More countries joining the BRICS

 

​​ 

​​ Critical Items

    – Impact: Possible Immediate Impact

 

  ​​  ​​ ​​ ​​​​ 

All​​ Countries– Inflation ​​ ​​ (Added:  30th April 2023)
–​​ Closely monitor the Central Banks (Fed & others) for​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Recession mitigation & Interest Rate Changes.

 

USSR/Ukraine – Monitor (Updated: 18th Sept 2022,24 Feb 2022 & 2021))

 


Israel & Iran & Gaza/Hamas – Monitor – Conflict Escalation & Possible Nuclear Arsenal

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​  (Update: 14 Oct 2023, ​​ 22 Aug 21)
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Monitor - ​​ Red Sea skirmishes ​​ ​​ (Added: ​​ 23rd​​ Dec​​ 2023)

USA Govt Shutdown​​ in January,​​ November?​​ – Monitor November 2023 (Updated: 16 Dec 2023,
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Oct 2023)
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ ​​ https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/federal-government-shutdown-funding-11-14-23/index.html
 ​​ ​​​​  ​​​​  ​​​​  ​​​​ ​​ https://www.raymondjames.com/commentary-and-insights/economy-policy/2023/09/29/weekly-economic-commentary​​ 

 


China – possible deflation setting up  ​​ ​​ ​​​​ –​​ (Updated: 6th​​ Jan​​ 2024,​​ 16 Dec 2023,​​ Added:  13th Aug 2023)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor ​​ - impact on trading partners​​ - esp Aus & NZ

 ​​ ​​​​  ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1235581-china-new-loans-plunge-to-2009-low-in?&highlight=china
 ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Monitor – Another bank,​​ Zhongzhi,​​ has collapsed.​​ It supported construction companies & they are​​ weak.​​ 
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://techstory.in/china-deals-with-debt-blow/

 

           ​​ 

Silicon Valley Bank collapse​​ + contagion?​​  ​​ ​​ ​​​​ (Updated 18 March 2023, Added:  11 March 2023)

 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor: Still ongoing impacts in US & includes the global banking system.
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ SVB, Silvergate, Signature, Credit Suisse & now First Republic
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_banking_crisis​​ 

BRICs – 5 more countries have joined ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​  ​​ ​​​​ (Added:  11 March 2023)
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.cmegroup.com/openmarkets/fx/2023/Are-Threats-to-the-USDs-Role-as-a-Reserve-Currency-Real.html

 

 

All Countries– Covid19 – Corona Virus
– Monitor for business changes.

 

US vs China– Monitor Trade war
Pay attention to any​​ escalation 

 

 

China- Evergrande issue  (Updated: 25 Nov 2023, 19 Aug 2023 ​​ & 26 Aug 21)
– Zhongzhi Enterprise Group ( China’s largest shadow bank) is declaring itself “severely insolvent.” Involved in trust, wealth funds & real estate projects &​​ management.​​ 

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://english.elpais.com/economy-and-business/2023-11-24/zhongzhi-one-of-chinas-major-shadow-banks-declares-itself-severely-insolvent.html

– Evergrande has filed for bankruptcy in the US

 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.reuters.com/legal/china-evergrande-files-chapter-15-bankruptcy-us-court-filing-2023-08-17/
– Monitor as it could impact China’s banking system
– Evergrande defaulted on​​ an interest payment to Australia 1st Oct 2021


Goldman Sachs Analysis – Be prudent about the analysis re US economy
(22 Aug 2021)


Afghanistan – Unfolding Situation (Updated: 22 Aug 21)

 

 

 

​​ 

​​ Important Items

    – Impact: Medium Term Impact

 

 

 

US Dollar losing primacy as Reserve Currency  (Added:  23 March 2022)
   Russia demanding Roubles or Yuan instead of USD for​​ payments.
https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1146816-the-us-dollars-global-standing-as-the-top
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/putin-says-russia-will-start-selling-gas-unfriendly-countries-roubles-2022-03-23/

 


Russia Rouble Unsteady  ​​ ​​ ​​​​ – (Added:  15h July 2023)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor ​​ - impact from sanctions & war
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ https://www.forexfactory.com/search?searchid=44391641

 

 

USSR Leadership issues ​​ – Monitor (Added:  1st July 2023)

 

 

USSR/Balkin states​​ – Monitor (Added 1 Oct 2023)
           ​​ Conflicts are starting to be seen​​ 

 

Banks under Scrutiny by ECB  ​​ ​​​​ –​​ (Added:  4th December 2022)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor for limited credit causing financial problems​​ 
 ​​​​ ​​ Effects Deutsche Bank & BNP Paribas

US-Iran Tension Escalation

China/Taiwan – Monitor for possible aggression
as per Chinese general saying military action is considered.

 

EU – Poland – Monitor for possible Issues (Updated: 9 Oct 2021)
   after Poland Constitutional Court decision. PolExit?

European Union Dissolving? Monitor the EU for
interstate difficulties exacerbated by the Covid19 epidemic
via EU Council​​ meeting relationships degrading
– also monitor Germany’s Constitutional Court Ruling
for future implications – re EURO viability, EU partnerships,
& possible end of EU? More info here: www.cnbc.com/


China/Hong Kong – Monitor

EU – Germany’s political situation is not settled
Additional EU Entrants possible?

Syria – Could disrupt in the markets

Libya – Geopolitical/Military escalation could affect Oil Prices

ECB – Monitor statements for weakening impacts
ECB outlook is becoming more pessimistic re EU Economy
Monitor any action taken if/when QE ceases at Year End.

 

 

 

 

​​ Ongoing Items

    – Impact: Very Long Term Repercussions

 

 

 

Italy – Monitor (Updated: 17 July 2022, -​​ 14 Feb 2021)
Draghi quits as PM, could still impact EU
– Monitor – Budget &​​ Banking System
– Monitor – Possible EU Penalty & alternate currency

OPEC – Monitor (Updated: 07 July 2023) 
 – Unexpectedly dropped the price​​ 
 – considering dropping USD as denomination currency
 – Influence of terrorism on production has risen.

 

German​​ Bank (WireCard) Bankrupted – Monitor for
possible future ramifications for stability
– eg domino effect a la Lehman Brothers.

 

Karlsruhe German Constitutional Court (Updated: 9 May 21)
Monitor: Decision re ECB PEPP (QE)
Could be revoked causing major impact on the German economy

 

China vs India vs Pakistan– Monitor conflicts along border.

 

 

 

 

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