Longer Term Issues​​ 

 
2nd​​ April​​ 2023

Last modified ​​ – ​​ 18th​​ March 2023​​ –​​ (Credit Suisse & SVB ongoing)

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​​ Critical Items

    – Impact: Possible Immediate Impact

All Countries– Covid19 – Corona Virus
– Monitor for​​ business changes/closures
as lockdowns start to expire.
– Closely monitor the Central Banks (Fed & others) for more
surprise decisions on Interest Rate Cuts &/or QE.

USSR/Ukraine/USA – Monitor (Updated: 18th Sept 2022,24 Feb 2022 (from Feb 2021))
       ​​    ​​ Beware – this conflict is escalating –​​ too late

Credit Suisse – Monitor (Updated 18 March 2023, Added: 9 Oct 2022)
 ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​​​ Possible merger with USB due to CS’s deposit withdrawals & stock slide.
           Possible bankruptcy due to margin​​ calls 

US vs China– Monitor Trade war
Pay attention to any escalation 

China- Evergrande issue  (Updated: 26 Aug 21)
– Monitor as it could impact China’s banking system
– Evergrande defaulted on an interest payment to Australia 1st Oct 2021

Israel & Iran & Gaza – Monitor – Conflict Escalation & Possible Nuclear Arsenal (Update: 22 Aug 21)

Goldman Sachs Analysis – Be prudent about the analysis re US economy
(22 Aug 2021)

Afghanistan – Unfolding Situation (Updated: 22 Aug 21)

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​​ Important Items

    – Impact: Medium Term Impact

Silicon Valley Bank collapses after failing to raise capital​​ (Added:  11 March 2023)

 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor for further possible impacts on the US banking system.

https://news.yahoo.com/global-bank-shares-sink-over-101228446.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall

US Dollar losing primacy as Reserve Currency  (Added:  23 March 2022)
   Russia demanding Roubles or Yuan instead of USD for payments.
https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1146816-the-us-dollars-global-standing-as-the-top
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/putin-says-russia-will-start-selling-gas-unfriendly-countries-roubles-2022-03-23/

Banks under Scrutiny ​​ by ECB  ​​ ​​​​ – (Added:  4th December 2022)
 ​​ ​​​​ Monitor for limited credit causing financial problems​​ 
 ​​​​ ​​ Effects Deutsche Bank & BNP Paribas

US-Iran Tension Escalation

China/Taiwan – Monitor for possible aggression
as per Chinese general saying military action is considered.

EU – Poland – Monitor for possible Issues (Updated: 9 Oct 2021)
   after Poland Constitutional Court decision. PolExit?

European Union Dissolving? Monitor the EU for
interstate difficulties​​ exacerbated by the Covid19 epidemic
via EU Council meeting relationships degrading
– also monitor Germany’s Constitutional Court Ruling
for future implications – re EURO viability, EU partnerships,
& possible end of EU? More info here: www.cnbc.com/


China/Hong Kong – Monitor

EU – Germany’s political situation is not settled
Additional EU Entrants possible?

Syria – Could disrupt in the markets

Libya – Geopolitical/Military escalation could affect Oil Prices

ECB – Monitor statements for weakening impacts
ECB outlook is becoming more pessimistic re EU Economy
Monitor any action taken if/when QE ceases at Year End.

​​ Ongoing Items

    – Impact: Very Long Term Repercussions

Italy – Monitor (Updated: 17 July 2022, -​​ 14 Feb 2021)
Draghi​​ quits as PM, could still impact EU
– Monitor – Budget & Banking System
– Monitor – Possible EU Penalty & alternate currency

OPEC – considering dropping USD as denomination currency
Influence of terrorism on production has risen.

German Bank (WireCard) Bankrupted – Monitor for
possible future ramifications for stability
– eg domino effect a la Lehman Brothers.

Karlsruhe German Constitutional Court (Updated: 9 May 21)
Monitor: Decision re ECB PEPP (QE)
Could be revoked causing major impact on the German economy

China vs India vs Pakistan– Monitor conflicts along border.